Once again, the figures demonstrate that this is a serious but not unprecedented pandemic

 

Article (with one Table) by Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 23 January 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

As we explained in a recently published article, a central ideological pillar of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution rests on the assertion that the extraordinary state of emergency measures would be justified by the extraordinary nature of the current pandemic. Hence, the bourgeois governments and their supporters among the Lockdown Left claim that humanity is in the midst of a supposedly “unprecedented and highly dangerous COVID-19 pandemic”. Hence, we think that it is important for Marxists to counter this ideological warfare of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution, among others, with scientific arguments.

 

For this reason, the RCIT has analyzed from the very beginning not only the political character of this counterrevolution but also the nature of the pandemic. ^[1] We demonstrated in much detail that the claims of bourgeois governments and their supporters among the Lockdown Left about the supposedly “unprecedented and highly dangerous COVID-19 pandemic” lacks any factual basis.

 

As the year 2020 has ended and figures for total mortality of the whole year get published by official agencies, it is now possible to compare the figures of the COVID-19 year with those of the past. For this reason, we have begun a series of articles which deal with the development of total mortality in various countries and regions. [2] As we explained in our last article on this issue, the development of total mortality in a given year is the best approximation in order to understand the severity of the pandemic. [3]

 

In this article we will analyze the effects of the pandemic for total mortality in Sweden and compare the results with past years. As we have noted repeatedly, Sweden has been one of the few countries which have not imposed any lockdown (nor any other enforcement measures) until now. Unsurprisingly, it has become a main target of attack both by the global bourgeoisie as well as by the Lockdown Left. [4]

 

We did already analyze the development of Sweden’s mortality figures in the past few months. [5] This article will update our analysis by the latest official data from Statistics Sweden – the official statistical authority of the country.

 

The latest data on the country’s total mortality has been published three days ago. It is possible that the figures for the last month of 2020 might be altered. However, according to our experience, we do not expect significant changes since we are already in late January and Sweden’s statistical authorities are known for fast and reliable work.

 

In the table below we reproduce the mortality per capita in Sweden for each month in 2020. In addition, we compare these figures with those for the years 2016 and 2018. We add the monthly figures in order to get the total for the whole year. Furthermore, we calculate the growth rate of the 2020 figure with those of 2016 respectively 2018.

 

 

 

Table 1. Number of deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per month in Sweden (2015-2020) [6]

 

 

 

                                                2015      2016      2017      2018      2019       2020

 

January                                86,0        85,4        89,9        84,2        79,2        78,2

 

February                              88,9        82,0        85,9        88,2        78,3        75,5

 

March                                   85,9        80,1        79,7        90,1        73,6        80,1

 

April                                     79,2        76,4        77,1        76,9        71,9        102,0

 

May                                       72,8        69,8        72,2        66,3        67,4        83,4

 

June                                       70,0        67,7        68,1        65,6        64,6        71,9

 

July                                        70,4        70,6        66,7        71,1        65,4        66,2

 

August                                 67,3        69,8        67,3        66,3        66,1        65,1

 

September                           71,4        69,1        68,6        68,2        66,5        65,3

 

October                                71,3        72,8        72,7        70,5        70,7        67,9

 

November                           74,6        75,7        74,1        69,5        72,1        79,1

 

December                            78,1        82,0        79,0        75,9        74,0        93,5

 

Total                                      915.9     901.4     901.3     892.8     849,8      928.2

 

Increase in 2020 (January-December) compared with the same period in 2019: +9.22%

 

Increase in 2020 (January-December) compared with the same period in 2018: +3.96%

 

Increase in 2020 (January-December) compared with the same period in 2017: +2.98%

 

Increase in 2020 (January-December) compared with the same period in 2016: +2.97%

 

Increase in 2020 (January-December) compared with the same period in 2015: +1.01%

 

 

 

Conclusions

 

 

 

What do these figures of Sweden’s mortality rate tell us? Basically, this data confirms once more our analysis of the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

First, the increase in mortality rate per capita reflects that the COVID-19 pandemic is not a “fake” or a “hoax” but a real and severe pandemic.

 

Secondly, while the increase is real, it can hardly be characterized as extraordinary large. The mortality rate per capita in 2020 was 9,2% larger than last year. However, 2019 was an extraordinary year as it saw the lowest number of death in Sweden for decades. When we compare the 2020 mortality rate per capita with the previous years, we see an increase of only +3.96% (2018), +2.98% (2017), +2.97% (2016) and +1.01% (2015). This confirms our analysis that the COVID-19 pandemic is neither unprecedented nor more dangerous than past pandemics.

 

Thirdly, these data also confirm the position – long held by us and many other democrats – that the “Swedish model” which operates without Lockdown and other enforcement measures does not result in higher mortality rates than countries with draconic Lockdowns.