Crisis energética capitalista: hacia un invierno oscuro

세계 에너지대란: “암흑의 겨울”로 가는

Kapitalistische Energiekrise: einem Dark Winter entgegen

 

On another important feature of the Great Depression of the capitalist world economy, its economic causes and its political consequences

An Essay (with 5 Figures and 1 Table) by Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 23 October 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

Note of the Editorial Board: The following document contains 5 figures. These figures can only be viewed in the pdf version of the document below for technical reasons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

In August, we warned against the official optimism of the bourgeois economists (shared by many left-wing commentators) who predicted a continuation of the cyclical upswing of the global economy. [1] Three weeks ago, we explained in more detail that the capitalist world economy is heading towards a second slump. [2] Meanwhile, many bourgeois economists have also become disillusioned. In fact, panic is spreading in these circles. A recent edition of The Economist – one of the smartest mouthpieces of the Western monopoly bourgeoisie – had a cover with the title “The shortage economy”, showing a picture with empty shelves in a supermarket. [3]

 

A key feature of the current shift towards a new slump is the energy crisis. Such crisis is evident in all parts of the world. In China, local authorities in at least 20 of the 31 provincial regions have been forced to resort to power rationing. According to the South China Morning Post, “two northeastern provinces, Liaoning and Jilin, have gone as far as cutting off power to traffic lights while also limiting the supply available to households, resulting in rolling blackouts in some places. And in Dongguan, an electronics manufacturing hub in Guangdong, some factories have been forced to limit production to just one or two days a week.” [4] These problems are likely to continue. Board members of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China predict that electricity problems would last until March. [5]

 

A very similar situation exists in India. Coal makes up about 70% of the country’s electricity mix. 70 of its 135 power plants that are dependent on coal for electricity face a crisis. According to media reports, 20 have already shut and more might follow soon. Local authorities in “the national capital Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Kerala, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, to name a few – have already resorted to electricity cuts or are on the verge of announcing massive cuts in the electricity supply.” [6]

 

Japan and South Korea are also facing energy problems. Korea Electric Power Corporation – South Korea’s largest electric utility – said it would raise prices for the first time in almost eight years. [7]

 

In Brazil, higher gas and oil prices – in combination with the worst drought in 91 years (resulting from the capitalist destruction of the climate) – has left hydropower plants unable to supply electricity. A massive rise of bills is the consequence in a profit-based economy. Hence, in the 12 months through September, electricity prices jumped 28.8% and cooking gas 34.7%, according to official data. [8]

 

The old imperialist countries in Europe and North America also face an energy crisis. Britain has been hit worst so far. Some of the country’s energy companies had to shut down operation due to high costs. Many petrol stations lack fuel and pictures with the sign “Sorry out of use” have made the headlines in recent weeks. The problem has been worsened by the lack of about 100,000 truck drivers, forcing the government to deploy soldiers in order to deliver fuel to petrol stations! [9]

 

But the crisis is also felt in other parts of the continent as European gas surged to a record 100 euros. Bloomberg reports: “Energy prices are rising from the U.S. to Europe and Asia as the economy recovers from the global pandemic and people return to the offices. Europe is struggling to secure enough gas and coal ahead of the winter, with rising prices forcing some of industrial giants from fertilizer producers CF Industries to Yara International ASA and chemicals giant BASF SE to shut plants or curtail output.” [10]

 

As a consequence, European storage sites are just under 75% full, the lowest level for this time of year in more than a decade. “A cold winter in both Europe and Asia would risk European storage levels dropping to zero,” says Massimo Di Odoardo at research firm Wood Mackenzie. [11] Hence, experts warn that European countries may face power outages in the winter months. [12]

 

A report of Associated Press characterizes the situation in warning terms: “The world is gripped by an energy crunch — a fierce squeeze on some of the key markets for natural gas, oil and other fuels that keep the global economy running and the lights and heat on in homes. Heading into winter, that has meant higher utility bills, more expensive products and growing concern about how energy-consuming Europe and China will recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.” [13]

 

The U.S. faces energy problems too. Puerto Rico, one of Washington’s colonies, has been hit worst. People face repeated power outages which have already provoked mass protests in San Juan, it’s capital city. [14]

 

 

 

What has triggered the Energy Crisis?

 

 

 

Many bourgeois commentators name specific local factors in order to explain the energy crisis. In Britain, it is often referred to the lack of lorry drivers who have been usually migrant workers from Eastern Europe and who have been kicked out after Brexit, when the UK left the EU. It is worth mentioning that truck drivers are also lacking in other European countries as many of them have also been kicked out last year under the cover of the pandemic.

 

In China, commentators refer to the fact that provincial authorities were permitted to raise the price of electricity by not more than 10%. (This has been changed to 20% a few days ago.) At the same time, the price of coal is not similarly regulated, and it recently hit record highs. As a result, power companies have been unwilling to produce adequate power, because it is simply less profitable. This creates a difficult situation since coal remains the dominant source, providing 68.5% of China’s power supply in 2020. [15]

 

All these local factors certainly play a role in causing the energy crunch. However, it is clear that if the same problem emerges at the same time in many different countries, there must be more fundamental, global causes for such a development.

 

Hence, other commentators point – with more justification – to global developments. As mentioned above, the shortage of (migrant) truck drivers in Europe – it is reported that about 500,000 are lacking – causes problems in transport. This is indeed a certain factor. It has been caused by the chauvinist response of the capitalist governments all over the world to the pandemic since spring 2020 which imposed a bonapartist policy against their own population and a chauvinist policy towards migrants and other countries. This is why, we note in passing, the RCIT characterizes the policy of the COVID Counterrevolution as chauvinist state bonapartism. [16]

 

Another factor which is often mentioned is the massive rise of energy prices. U.S. crude is over $83 per barrel, the highest in seven years, while international benchmark Brent is around $85. Prices for natural gas have dramatically increased which affects Europe particularly hard as it imports 90% of its supply (largely from Russia). Since the start of the year, prices have risen to five times – from about 19 euros per megawatt hour to nearly 100 euros.

 

All these factors certainly play a role in explaining the energy crisis. In fact, they demonstrate the anarchic nature of capitalism. This is a system driven by the profit interests of the capitalists and the power interest of the ruling political elite. If it helps to consolidate their political power in a period of deep crisis, these governments brutally wipe up chauvinism and kick out migrant workers. The same, we note in passing, was done by the Stalinist-capitalist regime in China and the right-wing Modi government in India. Both regimes expelled the “migrant” workers – coming from rural areas – from the cities within a few weeks.

 

Similarly, the authoritarian state-bonapartist response to the pandemic with its notorious Lockdown policy dramatically affects the transport sector. The Chinese regime, for example, repeatedly closes crucial ports because of a few cases. The has caused – and continues to cause – massive global supply-chain disruptions. “In June, Covid infections disrupted activity at the ports of Shenzhen and Guangzhou in China. Global container vessel congestion, including that stemming from the June stoppage in Shenzhen, has resulted in months-long overbooking of carriers and has driven up shipping rates. “It now costs nearly 10 times more to move a box from Asia to the U.S. West Coast than it did before the pandemic” reported global freight data provider Freight Waves.” The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, rose to an 11-year high in August. [17] Figure 1 demonstrates the massive rise of commodity and shipping prices since the beginning of the recession.

 

 

 

Figure 1. Commodity and Shipping Prices, January 2018 to September 2021 [18]

 

 

 

 

Likewise, we see the anarchic nature of capitalism in the disruptions of global transport of goods. While empty containers pile up at the U.S. West Coast, Asian corporations are looking in vain for containers to export their goods. As a result, inventories in the manufacturing sector are declining, as Figure 2 shows.

 

 

 

Figure 2. Inventories in the Manufacturing Sector in the U.S., Germany and South Korea, January 2019 to September 2021 [19]

 

 

 

 

 

 

A socialist society would globally plan and coordinate the economy. Its decisions would be driven neither by profit interests of corporations nor by chauvinist interests of national states but by the global needs of the world population. Such a society would send containers where they are needed, would expand energy production capacities when they are needed, and would treat “foreign” workers not different from “domestic” workers.

 

 

 

What are the Deeper Causes of the Energy Crisis?

 

 

 

However, in order to fully understand its causes, we have to go deeper. Starting from the simple logic of the advocates of the “free market”, it is difficult to understand why there exists not enough power supply when energy is needed. Remember, we were all told that the market is based on supply and demand. So, obviously there is demand for energy but why is there not enough supply?!

 

The deeper reason for the energy crisis is the general and long-term decline of capitalism which has resulted in the tendency of the profit rate to fall. This basically means that, in the long run, the share of surplus value becomes smaller relative to the total capital invested in production (in machinery, raw materials, etc., as well as wages paid to workers). Therefore, the surplus value which can potentially be used for the reproduction of capital on an extended level becomes less and less. This inevitably leads to disruptions and crises and a historic tendency of decline as it becomes less and less profitable for the capitalists to invest in the expansion of production.

 

We have emphasized this point in various works so we will not go into detail at this point. [20] To give a brief empirical overview, we reproduce two figures published by the Marxist economist Michael Roberts. Figure 3 shows the development of the internal rate of return in the old imperialist states (U.S., Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Canada) from 1950 to 2017. Figure 4 reflects the development of global corporate profits from 1997 to 2019. Both figures confirm the Marxist thesis that the profit rate tends to fall in the long run.

 

 

 

Figure 3. Internal Rate of Return in the G7 States, 1950-2017 [21]

 

 

 

 

Figure 4. Global Corporate Profits, Annual Growth 1997-2019 [22]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Such a decline of the profit rate has, in turn, resulted in a declining tendency of capital accumulation. This means that the growth dynamic of investment, i.e. the expansion of capital stock, declines. For example, in the U.S. net non-residential fixed investment as a share of GDP has fallen by almost half in the past decades – from 4.1% in the 1970s and 1980s to 2.5% in the 2010s. [23] Another measure which expresses the same dynamic is the historic development of net investment as a share of the capital stock. As we can see in Figure 5, this share has been falling in the U.S. for a long time – a process “which limits the economy’s productive capacity”, as the official Economic Report of the President of the White House noted worryingly in its 2018 edition.

 

 

 

Figure 5. Net Investment as a Share of the Capital Stock in the U.S., 1945-2016 [24]

 

 

 

 

 

 

This tendency is also confirmed by a recently published survey of The Economist, which shows the long-term decline of investment of the 500 largest corporations in Europe und the U.S. While the annual growth of their capital expenditures was about 8,7% in 2001-10, this figure declined to 4.5% in 2010-19, i.e. nearly the half. [25]

 

This tendency of decline in growth of investment has been particularly relevant in the energy sector. An analyst of Goldman Sachs put it straight: “Gas, coal, oil, metals, mining – you pick – the old economy is significantly underinvested. We call it the revenge of the old economy. Poor returns saw capital redirected away from the old economy to the new economy.” [26]

 

In other words, the capitalists think they can not make enough profit in these sectors if they would significantly increase their investment. Hence, they prefer to use their money in other sectors or speculate with it.

 

True, various governments have supported the creation of so-called “green energy” sector with financial aid, tax cuts, etc. But investment in such sectors has been limited since, again, capitalists invest only to that degree that they can expect sufficient profit. And since capitalist governments – particularly in the imperialist states – are suffering from a historically high and rising level of debts, their space for such state-capitalist interventions to boost the “green energy” sector is limited. (See Table 1)

 

 

 

Table 1. General Government Debt, 2016 to 2021 (Percent of GDP) [27]

 

Country                                               2016        2017      2018      2019       2020

 

Canada                                                  91.7        88.8        88.8        86.8        117.5

 

France                                                    98.0        98.3        98.0        97.6        115.1

 

Germany                                               69.3        65.0        61.6        59.2        69.1

 

Italy                                                       134.8     134.1     134.4     134.6      155.8

 

Japan                                                    232.5     231.4     232.5     235.4      254.1

 

United Kingdom                                 86.8        86.3        85.8        85.2        104.5

 

United States                                     106.9     106.0     107.1     108.5      133.9

 

China                                                    48.2        51.7        53.8        57.1        66.3

 

India                                                     68.9        69.7        70.4        74.1        89.6

 

Russian Federation                          14.8        14.3        13.6        13.8        19.3

 

Latin America                                     56.4        61.1        67.4        68.3        78.1

 

Saudi Arabia                                       13.1        17.2        19.0        22.8        32.5

 

South Africa                                        47.1        48.6        51.6        56.3        69.4

 

World                                                    83.2        82.0        82.3        83.6        98.6

 

 

 

As it is well known, we note in passing, this has also disastrous consequences for the climate which, in turn, also affects massively the economy (e.g. heating waves as well as harsh winter increase the energy costs; floods, hurricanes etc. also cause massive social and economic damage).

 

 

 

Economic and Political Consequences of the “Dark Winter”

 

 

 

We shall conclude this essay by briefly pointing to the most important economic and political consequences and the resultant tasks for revolutionaries.

 

1.            First, it is clear that the energy crisis will have massive consequences for the capitalist world economy. One does not need to be an Einstein to understand that repeated power cuts and rising prices will reduce production. This is even more the case since, as we have pointed out in our past articles, the energy crisis is not an isolated phenomenon but develops in combination with other symptoms of the capitalist crisis (increasing debts, transportation disruption, etc.). In short, we repeat our warning that the capitalist world economy remains stuck in the Great Depression which started in autumn 2019. After the first slump in spring 2020, it is now heading for a second one.

 

2.            A second slump will have also dramatic political consequences. It is quite likely that such an energy crisis will provoke a “Dark Winter”. True, it is winter only for the northern half of the planet. However, a heating wave in the southern half will equally have massive negative effects for the energy crisis, i.e. it will also result in power outages and price increases. People will be forced to live in cold (or very hot) houses, TV, internet and radio will be disrupted, … in short, this crisis will have immediate and drastic effects not only for corporations but also for the popular masses. In our recently published RCIT Manifesto, we characterized the present state of decay of bourgeois class society as “catastrophic capitalism”. ^[28] The current events are a powerful confirmation of our assessment!

 

3.            This will inevitable provoke massive political crisis in many countries. It will undermine the credibility of governments. It will drive people on the streets protesting. Hence, it is likely that such a “Dark Winter” will provoke pre-revolutionary and revolutionary crisis in various countries.

 

4.            Faced with such dangerous developments, capitalist governments will do whatever possible in order to suppress such unrest and to deflect public attention. There are several realistic possibilities how they could do this. First, they could declare another COVID emergency and claim that new Lockdown or other restrictions have to be imposed. Of course, the real purpose of such actions would not be to overcome the pandemic but rather to control the population in a situation which is very dangerous for governments. This was, as we have pointed out repeatedly, also the real purpose of the Lockdown policy in spring 2020 as many regimes – from China to France and Chile – were faced with popular uprisings since summer 2019. [29]

 

5.            Furthermore, in addition to the pandemic, governments will also try to deflect public attention by provoking tensions with other states. As the RCIT has pointed out in various documents, several regions in the world are already riven with tensions between capitalist states. In the past years, we have seen a massive acceleration of rivalry between the imperialist Great Powers. [30] The most important of these conflicts is the Cold War between the imperialist Great Powers U.S. and China. [31] Likewise, the tensions between the Western powers and Russia have escalated recently. [32] Add to this – to name just a few – the tensions in the Middle East (e.g. Israel-Iran; Algeria-Morocco, Turkey-Syria), in Eastern Africa (e.g. Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia), in the Southern Caucasus where just recently a war took place between Armenia and Azerbaijan, or in South Asia (e.g. China-India, India-Pakistan, Tajikistan-Afghanistan). Finally, such an environment of acute crisis and chaos reinforces the conditions for coup d'états and civil wars (e.g. Tunisia, Ethiopia, Sudan, Mali, Guinea).

 

 

 

Revolutionary Strategy

 

 

 

6.            In short, “Dark Winter” creates the condition for a new phase of war and revolution. The RCIT calls all authentic revolutionaries to prepare for such a period! This means, on one hand, advocating an unwavering line of revolutionary struggle. Revolutionaries must oppose all economic and authoritarian attacks which the ruling class will launch under the cover of “Dark Winter” and advocate the methods of mass struggles and the self-organization of the workers and oppressed. In the face of the COVID Counterrevolution, Marxists have to oppose it and all related attacks (attack on democratic rights, Lockdowns, surveillance, enforced vaccination, etc.). They have to support strikes and demonstrations against such attacks (e.g. in Italy and France). [33] They need to oppose all forms of militarism and chauvinism. In the face of inter-imperialist conflicts, they have to take the position of revolutionary defeatism, i.e. opposing both sides and trying to utilize such conflicts in order to weaken and overthrow the imperialist rulers of both camps. The same applies to reactionary conflicts between semi-colonial capitalist states. In wars between an oppressor and an oppressed people or in the case of a reactionary coup d'état or civil war, revolutionaries have to take the side of the oppressed (without lending political support for their non-revolutionary leadership). On the other hand, revolutionaries need to intervene practically – or play an initiating role wherever possible – in popular protests against the attacks of the ruling class resulting from the “Dark Winter”. In short, the current crisis of capitalism poses the task to transform the “Dark Winter” for the popular masses into a “Dark Winter” for the capitalist ruling class!

 

7.            Revolutionaries need to combine the political and practical intervention in such mass struggles with a bold program for socialist revolution. Such a program needs to advocate forms of mass struggles – mass demonstrations, strikes, general strike, etc. – as well as forms of mass self-organization – councils of action, popular assemblies, armed self-defense units, etc. Marxists have to explain that it is crucial to combine the struggles of today with the strategic task to break up the power of the ruling class (workers control in enterprises, popular councils and militias, workers and popular governments). Catastrophic capitalism must be overthrown – not only in one country but globally. The current events are a powerful demonstration that the burning problems of humanity can not be solved in a single country alone. They can only be tackled on a global scale, by a world federation of workers and peasants’ republics which elaborate a joint international plan for production, transport, limiting and overcoming the climate change and so on.

 

8.            Trotsky once noted: “The great historical strength of the (Left) Opposition, despite its apparent weakness, lies in the fact that it keeps its fingers on the pulse of world historical processes, that it clearly perceives the dynamics of class forces, that it foresees the future and consciously prepares for it.” [34] This is indeed the task of revolutionaries today and the RCIT – as well as other authentic revolutionaries – have operated with such a perspective for some time. The task now is to utilize our programmatic strength to advance the creation of a Revolutionary World Party! We repeat the conclusions of our RCIT Manifesto: If you agree with our goals, join us! Forward in the struggle for socialist world revolution! Let the fire of revolution burn down catastrophic capitalism!

 

 

Sobre otra característica importante de la Gran Depresión de la economía mundial capitalista, sus causas económicas y sus consecuencias políticas

 

Un ensayo (con 5 figuras y 1 tabla) de Michael Pröbsting, secretario internacional de la Corriente Comunista Revolucionaria Internacional (CCRI), 23 de octubre de 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

Nota del Comité Editorial: El siguiente documento contiene 5 figuras. Estas cifras solo se pueden ver en la versión pdf del documento siguiente por razones técnicas.

 

 

 

En agosto advertimos contra el optimismo oficial de los economistas burgueses (compartido por muchos comentaristas de izquierda) que predijeron una continuación del repunte cíclico de la economía global. [1] Hace tres semanas, explicamos con más detalle que la economía mundial capitalista se encamina hacia una segunda recesión. [2] Mientras tanto, muchos economistas burgueses también se han desilusionado. De hecho, el pánico se está extendiendo en estos círculos. Una edición reciente de The Economist, uno de los portavoces más inteligentes de la burguesía monopolista occidental, tenía una portada con el título “La economía de la escasez”, que mostraba una imagen con estantes vacíos en un supermercado. [3]

 

Una característica clave del cambio actual hacia una nueva recesión es la crisis energética. Esta crisis es evidente en todas partes del mundo. En China, las autoridades locales de al menos 20 de las 31 regiones provinciales se han visto obligadas a recurrir al racionamiento eléctrico. Según el South China Morning Post, “dos provincias del noreste, Liaoning y Jilin, han llegado a cortar el suministro eléctrico a los semáforos y limitar el suministro disponible para los hogares, lo que ha provocado apagones continuos en algunos lugares. Y en Dongguan, un centro de fabricación de productos electrónicos en Guangdong, algunas fábricas se han visto obligadas a limitar la producción a solo uno o dos días a la semana.” [4] Es probable que estos problemas continúen. Los miembros de la junta de laLa Cámara de Comercio de la Unión Europea en China predice que los problemas de electricidad durarán hasta marzo. [5]

 

En la India existe una situación muy similar. El carbón constituye alrededor del 70% del mix eléctrico del país. 70 de sus 135 centrales eléctricas que dependen del carbón para la electricidad se enfrentan a una crisis. Según informes de los medios, 20 ya han cerrado y podrían seguir más pronto. Las autoridades locales en “la capital nacional, Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Kerala, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh y Tamil Nadu, por nombrar algunos, ya han recurrido a cortes de electricidad o están a punto de anunciar cortes en el suministro eléctrico.” [6]

 

Japón y Corea del Sur también se enfrentan a problemas energéticos. Korea Electric Power Corporation, la empresa eléctrica más grande de Corea del Sur, dijo que aumentaría los precios por primera vez en casi ocho años. [7]

 

En Brasil, el aumento de los precios del gas y el petróleo, en combinación con la peor sequía en 91 años (resultante de la destrucción capitalista del clima), ha dejado a las centrales hidroeléctricas sin poder suministrar electricidad. Un aumento masivo de las facturas es la consecuencia de una economía basada en las ganancias. Así, en los 12 meses hasta septiembre, los precios de la electricidad subieron un 28,8% y el gas de cocina un 34,7%, según datos oficiales. [8]

 

Los viejos países imperialistas de Europa y América del Norte también enfrentan una crisis energética. Gran Bretaña ha sido la más afectada hasta ahora. Algunas de las empresas energéticas del país tuvieron que cerrar sus operaciones debido a los altos costos. Muchas gasolineras carecen de combustible y las imágenes con el letrero “Lo sentimos, fuera de uso” han aparecido en los titulares en las últimas semanas. El problema se ha agravado por la falta de unos 100.000 camioneros, lo que ha obligado al gobierno a desplegar soldados para llevar combustible a las gasolineras. [9]

 

Pero la crisis también se siente en otras partes del continente, ya que el gas europeo subió a un récord de 100 euros. Bloomberg informa: “Los precios de la energía están aumentando desde los EE. UU. Hacia Europa y Asia a medida que la economía se recupera de la pandemia global y la gente regresa a las oficinas. Europa está luchando para asegurar suficiente gas y carbón antes del invierno, con el aumento de los precios que obliga a algunos de los gigantes industriales, desde los productores de fertilizantes CF Industries hasta Yara International ASA y el gigante químico BASF SE, a cerrar plantas o reducir la producción.” [10]

 

Como consecuencia, los sitios de almacenamiento europeos están poco menos del 75% de su capacidad, el nivel más bajo para esta época del año en más de una década. “Un invierno frío tanto en Europa como en Asia correría el riesgo de que los niveles de almacenamiento europeos cayeran a cero”, dice Massimo Di Odoardo, de la firma de investigación Wood Mackenzie. [11] Por lo tanto, los expertos advierten que los países europeos pueden enfrentar cortes de energía en los meses de invierno. [12]

 

Un informe de Associated Press caracteriza la situación en términos de advertencia: “El mundo está preso de una crisis energética: una fuerte presión sobre algunos de los mercados clave de gas natural, petróleo y otros combustibles que mantienen la economía mundial en funcionamiento y las luces y el calor en los hogares. De cara al invierno, eso ha significado facturas de servicios públicos más altas, productos más caros y una creciente preocupación sobre cómo Europa y China, consumidoras de energía, se recuperarán de la pandemia de COVID-19.” [13]

 

Estados Unidos también enfrenta problemas energéticos. Puerto Rico, una de las colonias de Washington, ha sido la más afectada. La gente enfrenta repetidos cortes de energía que ya han provocado protestas masivas en San Juan, su capital. [14]

 

 

 

¿Qué ha desencadenado la crisis energética?

 

 

 

Muchos comentaristas burgueses nombran factores locales específicos para explicar la crisis energética. En Gran Bretaña, a menudo se hace referencia a la falta de conductores de camiones que suelen ser trabajadores migrantes de Europa del Este y que han sido expulsados después del Brexit, cuando el Reino Unido abandonó la UE. Vale la pena mencionar que los conductores de camiones también faltan en otros países europeos, ya que muchos de ellos también fueron expulsados el año pasado al amparo de la pandemia.

 

En China, los comentaristas se refieren al hecho de que se permitió a las autoridades provinciales aumentar el precio de la electricidad en no más del 10%. (Esto se cambió al 20% hace unos días). Al mismo tiempo, el precio del carbón no está regulado de manera similar y recientemente alcanzó niveles récord. Como resultado, las compañías eléctricas no han estado dispuestas a producir la energía adecuada, simplemente porque es menos rentable. Esto crea una situación difícil, ya que el carbón sigue siendo la fuente dominante, proporcionando el 68,5% del suministro eléctrico de China en 2020. [15]

 

Todos estos factores locales ciertamente juegan un papel en la causa de la crisis energética. Sin embargo, está claro que si el mismo problema surge al mismo tiempo en muchos países diferentes, debe haber causas globales más fundamentales para tal desarrollo.

 

Por lo tanto, otros comentaristas apuntan, con más justificación, a desarrollos globales. Como se mencionó anteriormente, la escasez de conductores de camiones (migrantes) en Europa (se informa que faltan alrededor de 500.000) causa problemas en el transporte. De hecho, este es un factor determinado. Ha sido provocado por la respuesta chovinista de los gobiernos capitalistas de todo el mundo a la pandemia desde la primavera de 2020 que impuso una política bonapartista contra su propia población y una política chovinista hacia los migrantes y otros países. Por eso, notamos de pasada, la CCRI caracteriza la política de la Contrarrevolución del COVID como bonapartismo chovinista de Estado. [16]

 

Otro factor que se menciona a menudo es el aumento masivo de los precios de la energía. El crudo estadounidense supera los 83 dólares por barril, el nivel más alto en siete años, mientras que el Brent de referencia internacional ronda los 85 dólares. Los precios del gas natural han aumentado drásticamente, lo que afecta especialmente a Europa, ya que importa el 90% de su suministro (principalmente de Rusia). Desde principios de año, los precios se han multiplicado por cinco: de unos 19 euros por megavatio hora a casi 100 euros.

 

Sin duda, todos estos factores influyen en la explicación de la crisis energética. De hecho, demuestran la naturaleza anárquica del capitalismo. Este es un sistema impulsado por los intereses de lucro de los capitalistas y los intereses de poder de la élite política gobernante. Si les ayuda a consolidar su poder político en un período de profunda crisis, estos gobiernos arrasan brutalmente con el chovinismo y expulsan a los trabajadores migrantes. Lo mismo, notamos de pasada, fue hecho por el régimen capitalista estalinista en China y el gobierno de derecha Modi en India. Ambos regímenes expulsaron a los trabajadores “migrantes”, provenientes de áreas rurales, de las ciudades en unas pocas semanas.

 

De manera similar, la respuesta estatal autoritaria y bonapartista a la pandemia con su notoria política de bloqueo afecta dramáticamente al sector del transporte. El régimen chino, por ejemplo, cierra repetidamente puertos cruciales debido a algunos casos. Ha causado, y continúa causando, interrupciones masivas de la cadena de suministro global. “En junio, las infecciones por Covid interrumpieron la actividad en los puertos de Shenzhen y Guangzhou en China. La congestión global de los buques portacontenedores, incluida la derivada de la paralización de junio en Shenzhen, ha provocado un overbooking de los transportistas durante meses y ha elevado las tarifas de envío.” Ahora cuesta casi 10 veces más mover una caja de Asia a la costa oeste de Estados Unidos que antes de la pandemia”, informó el proveedor global de datos de carga Freight Waves” El Baltic Dry Index, una medida de las tarifas de envío, subió a un máximo de 11 años en agosto. [17] La Figura 1 demuestra el aumento masivo de los precios de los productos básicos y del envío desde el comienzo de la recesión.

 

 

 

Figura 1. Precios de productos básicos y envío, enero de 2018 a septiembre de 2021 [18]

 

 

 

 

 

Asimismo, vemos la naturaleza anárquica del capitalismo en las interrupciones del transporte global de mercancías. Mientras los contenedores vacíos se acumulan en la costa oeste de Estados Unidos, las corporaciones asiáticas buscan en vano contenedores para exportar sus mercancías. Como resultado, los inventarios en el sector manufacturero están disminuyendo, como muestra la Figura 2.

 

 

 

Figura 2. Inventarios en el sector manufacturero en los EE. UU., Alemania y Corea del Sur, de enero de 2019 a septiembre de 2021 [19]

 

 

 

Una sociedad socialista planificaría y coordinaría globalmente la economía. Sus decisiones no serían impulsadas ni por los intereses de lucro de las corporaciones ni por los intereses chovinistas de los estados nacionales, sino por las necesidades globales de la población mundial. Una sociedad así enviaría contenedores donde se necesiten, ampliaría las capacidades de producción de energía cuando se necesiten y trataría a los trabajadores "extranjeros" de manera no diferente a los trabajadores "domésticos".

 

 

 

¿Cuáles son las causas más profundas de la crisis energética?

 

 

 

Sin embargo, para comprender plenamente sus causas, tenemos que profundizar más. Partiendo de la simple lógica de los defensores del “mercado libre”, es difícil entender por qué no existe suficiente suministro eléctrico cuando se necesita energía. Recuerde, a todos nos dijeron que el mercado se basa en la oferta y la demanda. Entonces, obviamente hay demanda de energía, pero ¿por qué no hay suficiente oferta?

 

La razón más profunda de la crisis energética es el declive general y a largo plazo del capitalismo, que ha dado lugar a una tendencia a la baja de la tasa de beneficio. Esto básicamente significa que, a largo plazo, la participación de la plusvalía se reduce en relación con el capital total invertido en la producción (en maquinaria, materias primas, etc., así como los salarios pagados a los trabajadores). Por lo tanto, la plusvalía que potencialmente puede usarse para la reproducción de capital en un nivel extendido se vuelve cada vez menor. Esto conduce inevitablemente a interrupciones y crisis y a una tendencia histórica de declive a medida que se vuelve cada vez menos rentable para los capitalistas invertir en la expansión de la producción.

 

Hemos enfatizado este punto en varios trabajos por lo que no entraremos en detalles en este punto. [20] Para dar una breve descripción empírica, reproducimos dos cifras publicadas por el economista marxista Michael Roberts. La Figura 3 muestra la evolución de la tasa interna de rendimiento en los viejos estados imperialistas (EE.UU., Japón, Alemania, Francia, Reino Unido, Italia y Canadá) desde 1950 hasta 2017. La Figura 4 refleja la evolución de las ganancias corporativas globales de 1997 a 2019. Ambas cifras confirman la tesis marxista de que la tasa de ganancia tiende a caer a largo plazo.

 

 

 

Figura 3. Tasa interna de rendimiento en los estados del G7, 1950-2017 [21]

 

 

 

 

 

Figura 4. Beneficios corporativos mundiales, crecimiento anual 1997-2019 [22]

 

 

 

Tal declive de la tasa de ganancia, a su vez, ha resultado en una tendencia a la baja de la acumulación de capital. Esto significa que la dinámica de crecimiento de la inversión, es decir, la expansión del stock de capital, disminuye. Por ejemplo, en los EE. UU., La inversión fija no residencial neta como porcentaje del PIB se ha reducido casi a la mitad en las últimas décadas: del 4,1% en las décadas de 1970 y 1980 al 2,5% en la de 2010. [23] Otra medida que expresa la misma dinámica es la evolución histórica de la inversión neta como participación del capital social. Como podemos ver en la Figura 5, esta participación ha estado cayendo en los EE. UU. Durante mucho tiempo, un proceso " que limita la capacidad productiva de la economía ", como el Informe Económico Oficial del Presidente de la Casa Blanca señaló de manera preocupante en su edición de 2018.

 

 

 

Figura 5. Inversión neta como participación del capital social en EE. UU., 1945-2016 [24]

 

 

 

 

Esta tendencia también se ve confirmada por una encuesta publicada recientemente por The Economist, que muestra la disminución a largo plazo de la inversión de las 500 corporaciones más grandes de Europa y los EE. UU. Mientras que el crecimiento anual de sus gastos de capital fue de aproximadamente el 8,7% en 2001- 10, esta cifra se redujo al 4,5% en 2010-19, es decir, casi la mitad. [25]

 

Esta tendencia a la baja en el crecimiento de la inversión ha sido particularmente relevante en el sector energético. Un analista de Goldman Sachs lo expresó claramente: “Gas, carbón, petróleo, metales, minería - usted elige - la vieja economía está significativamente subinvertida. Lo llamamos la venganza de la vieja economía. Los bajos rendimientos hicieron que el capital se redirigiera de la vieja economía a la nueva economía.” [26]

 

En otras palabras, los capitalistas piensan que no pueden obtener suficientes ganancias en estos sectores si aumentan significativamente su inversión. De ahí que prefieran utilizar su dinero en otros sectores o especular con él.

 

Es cierto que varios gobiernos han apoyado la creación del llamado sector de "energía verde" con ayuda financiera, recortes de impuestos, etc. Pero la inversión en tales sectores ha sido limitada ya que, nuevamente, los capitalistas invierten solo en la medida en que pueden esperar ganancias suficientes. Y dado que los gobiernos capitalistas -particularmente en los estados imperialistas- están sufriendo de un nivel históricamente alto y creciente de deudas, su espacio para tales intervenciones capitalistas de estado para impulsar el sector de la “energía verde” es limitado. (Ver tabla 1)

 

 

 

Tabla 1. Deuda de las administraciones públicas, 2016 a 2021 (porcentaje del PIB) [27]

 

País                                                       2016      2017      2018      2019       2020

 

Canadá                                                 91,7        88,8        88,8        86,8        117,5

 

Francia                                                 98,0        98,3        98,0        97,6        115,1

 

Alemania                                             69,3        65,0        61,6        59,2        69,1

 

Italia                                                    134,8     134,1     134,4     134,6      155,8

 

Japón                                                   232,5     231,4     232,5     235,4      254,1

 

Reino Unido                                       86,8        86,3        85,8        85,2     104,5

 

Estados Unidos                                106,9     106,0     107,1     108,5      133,9

 

China                                                   48,2        51,7        53,8        57,1        66,3

 

India                                                     68,9        69,7        70,4        74,1        89,6

 

Federación de Rusia                        14,8        14,3        13,6        13,8        19,3

 

América Latina                                  56,4        61,1        67,4        68,3        78,1

 

Arabia Saudita                                  13,1        17,2        19,0        22,8        32,5

 

Sudáfrica                                             47,1        48,6        51,6        56,3        69,4

 

Mundo                                                 83,2        82,0        82,3        83,6        98,6

 

 

 

Como es bien sabido, notamos de pasada, esto también tiene consecuencias desastrosas para el clima que, a su vez, también afecta masivamente la economía (por ejemplo, las olas de calor y el duro invierno aumentan los costos de energía; las inundaciones, los huracanes, etc. también causan daños sociales y económicos masivos).

 

 

 

Consecuencias económicas y políticas del "invierno oscuro

 

 

 

Concluimos este ensayo señalando brevemente las consecuencias económicas y políticas más importantes y las tareas resultantes para los revolucionarios.

 

1.            Primero, está claro que la crisis energética tendrá consecuencias masivas para la economía mundial capitalista. No es necesario ser un Einstein para comprender que los repetidos cortes de energía y el aumento de los precios reducirán la producción. Esto es aún más cierto ya que, como hemos señalado en nuestros artículos anteriores, la crisis energética no es un fenómeno aislado, sino que se desarrolla en combinación con otros síntomas de la crisis capitalista (aumento de la deuda, interrupción del transporte, etc.). En resumen, repetimos nuestra advertencia de que la economía mundial capitalista sigue estancada en la Gran Depresión que comenzó en el otoño de 2019. Después de la primera recesión en la primavera de 2020, ahora se dirige a una segunda.

 

2.            Una segunda recesión también tendrá consecuencias políticas dramáticas. Es muy probable que una crisis energética de este tipo provoque un "invierno oscuro". Es cierto que es invierno solo para la mitad norte del planeta. Sin embargo, una ola de calor en la mitad sur tendrá igualmente efectos negativos masivos para la crisis energética, es decir, también resultará en cortes de energía y aumentos de precios. La gente se verá obligada a vivir en casas frías (o muy calientes), la televisión, internet y la radio se verán interrumpidas, en fin, esta crisis tendrá efectos inmediatos y drásticos no solo para las corporaciones sino también para las masas populares. En nuestro Manifiesto de la CCRI publicado recientemente, caracterizamos el actual estado de decadencia de la sociedad de clases burguesa como “capitalismo catastrófico”. [28] ¡Los eventos actuales son una poderosa confirmación de nuestra evaluación!

 

3.            Esto provocará inevitablemente una crisis política masiva en muchos países. Socavará la credibilidad de los gobiernos. Llevará a la gente a las calles a protestar. Por lo tanto, es probable que un "invierno oscuro" provoque una crisis prerrevolucionaria y revolucionaria en varios países.

 

4.            Frente a desarrollos tan peligrosos, los gobiernos capitalistas harán todo lo posible para reprimir tales disturbios y desviar la atención del público. Hay varias posibilidades realistas de cómo podrían hacer esto. Primero, podrían declarar otra emergencia COVID y reclamar que se deben imponer nuevas restricciones u otras restricciones. Por supuesto, el verdadero propósito de tales acciones no sería superar la pandemia sino controlar a la población en una situación muy peligrosa para los gobiernos. Este fue, como hemos señalado repetidamente, también el propósito real de la política de cierre en la primavera de 2020, ya que muchos regímenes, desde China hasta Francia y Chile, se enfrentaron a levantamientos populares desde el verano de 2019 [29].

 

5.            Además, además de la pandemia, los gobiernos también intentarán desviar la atención pública provocando tensiones con otros estados. Como ha señalado la CCRI en varios documentos, varias regiones del mundo ya están desgarradas por las tensiones entre estados capitalistas. En los últimos años, hemos visto una aceleración masiva de la rivalidad entre las grandes potencias imperialistas. [30] El más importante de estos conflictos es la Guerra Fría entre las grandes potencias imperialistas de Estados Unidos y China. [31] Asimismo, las tensiones entre las potencias occidentales y Rusia se han intensificado recientemente. [32]Añádase a esto, por nombrar solo algunas, las tensiones en el Medio Oriente (por ejemplo, Israel-Irán; Argelia-Marruecos, Turquía-Siria), en África Oriental (por ejemplo, Egipto-Sudán-Etiopía), en el sur del Cáucaso donde recientemente se produjo una guerra entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán, o en el sur de Asia (por ejemplo, China-India, India-Pakistán, Tayikistán-Afganistán). Por último, este entorno de crisis aguda y caos refuerza las condiciones para golpes de Estado y guerras civiles (por ejemplo, Túnez, Etiopía, Sudán, Malí, Guinea).

 

 

 

Estrategia revolucionaria

 

 

 

6.            En resumen, el "invierno oscuro" crea las condiciones para una nueva fase de guerra y revolución. ¡La CCRI llama a todos los auténticos revolucionarios a prepararse para tal período! Esto significa, por un lado, defender una línea inquebrantable de lucha revolucionaria. Los revolucionarios deben oponerse a todos los ataques económicos y autoritarios que la clase dominante lanzará bajo el manto del “Invierno Oscuro” y defender los métodos de las luchas de masas y la autoorganización de los obreros y oprimidos. Frente a la Contrarrevolución COVID, los marxistas tienen que oponerse a ella y a todos los ataques relacionados (ataque a los derechos democráticos, Cierres, vigilancia, vacunación forzada, etc.). Tienen que apoyar huelgas y manifestaciones contra tales ataques (por ejemplo, en Italia y Francia). [33] Necesitan oponerse a todas las formas de militarismo y chovinismo. Ante los conflictos interimperialistas, tienen que asumir la posición del derrotismo revolucionario, es decir, oponerse a ambos lados y tratar de utilizar tales conflictos para debilitar y derrocar a los gobernantes imperialistas de ambos campos. Lo mismo se aplica a los conflictos reaccionarios entre estados capitalistas semicoloniales. En las guerras entre un opresor y un pueblo oprimido o en el caso de un golpe de Estado reaccionario o una guerra civil, los revolucionarios deben ponerse del lado de los oprimidos (sin prestar apoyo político a su dirección no revolucionaria). Por otro lado, los revolucionarios deben intervenir prácticamente - o jugar un papel iniciador siempre que sea posible - en las protestas populares contra los ataques de la clase dominante resultantes del “Invierno Oscuro”. En resumen, ¡la actual crisis del capitalismo plantea la tarea de transformar el "Invierno Oscuro" para las masas populares en un "Invierno Oscuro" para la clase dominante capitalista!

 

7. Los    revolucionarios deben combinar la intervención política y práctica en tales luchas de masas con un programa audaz para la revolución socialista. Un programa de este tipo debe defender formas de luchas de masas (manifestaciones de masas, huelgas, huelgas generales, etc.), así como formas de autoorganización de las masas, consejos de acción, asambleas populares, unidades armadas de autodefensa, etc. Los marxistas deben Explicar que es fundamental combinar las luchas de hoy con la tarea estratégica de quebrar el poder de la clase dominante (control obrero en empresas, consejos y milicias populares, gobiernos obreros y populares). El capitalismo catastrófico debe ser derrocado, no solo en un país sino a nivel mundial. Los acontecimientos actuales son una demostración contundente de que los problemas candentes de la humanidad no pueden resolverse en un solo país. Solo pueden ser abordados a escala global, por una federación mundial de repúblicas obreras y campesinas que elabore un plan internacional conjunto de producción, transporte, limitación y superación del cambio climático, etc.

 

8.            Trotsky señaló una vez: “La gran fuerza histórica de la Oposición (de izquierda), a pesar de su aparente debilidad, radica en el hecho de que mantiene sus dedos en el pulso de los procesos históricos mundiales, que percibe claramente la dinámica de las fuerzas de clase, que prevé el futuro y se prepara conscientemente para él". [34] Esta es de hecho la tarea de los revolucionarios de hoy y la CCRI, así como otros auténticos revolucionarios, han operado con esa perspectiva durante algún tiempo. ¡La tarea ahora es utilizar nuestra fuerza programática para promover la creación de un Partido Mundial Revolucionario! Repetimos las conclusiones de nuestro Manifiesto CCRI: Si está de acuerdo con nuestros objetivos, ¡únase a nosotros! ¡Adelante en la lucha por la revolución socialista mundial! ¡Que el fuego de la revolución queme al capitalismo catastrófico!

 

 

 

[1] Ver Capítulo II de CCRI: Perspectivas Mundiales 2021-22: Entrando en una situación global pre-revolucionaria, 22 de agosto 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/

 

[2] Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/; by the same author: The Real Estate Bubble in Capitalist China. Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic make global investors tremble and for good reasons, 6 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/the-real-estate-bubble-in-capitalist-china/

 

[3] The Economist, October 9th – 15th 2021

 

[4] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis: why is it happening, how bad is it, and what if it continues into the freezing winter months? 10 October 2021, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3151710/chinas-power-crisis-why-it-happening-how-bad-it-and-what-if?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[5] Keith Bradsher: China’s Power Problems Expose a Strategic Weakness, 13 October 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/13/business/china-electricity-shortage.html

 

[6] Anil Sharma: India faces a crisis as power shortage worsens, 13 October 2021, https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/india-faces-a-crisis-as-power-shortage-worsens/

 

[7] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4 Oct, 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[8] David Biller and Diane Jeantet: Brazil’s inflation hits double digits, punishing the poor, Associated Press, October 8, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/business-caribbean-brazil-rio-de-janeiro-prices-2b300ff78c5ae0003903a036b155a319

 

[9] James Ludden: UK government clears army to begin petrol deliveries from Monday, Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/uk-government-clears-army-to-begin-petrol-deliveries-from-monday

 

[10] Anna Shiryaevskaya, Vanessa Dezem and Elena Mazneva: Energy crunch: Natural gas prices in Europe hit record 100 euros, Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/energy-crunch-natural-gas-prices-in-europe-hit-record-100-euro

 

[11] David Mchugh, Colleen Barry, Joe Mcdonald and Tatiana Pollastri: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches, 2021-10-19, https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-business-russia-health-70b97e36da53f62eba588b44f2b394bc

 

[12] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4 Oct, 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[13] David Mchugh et al: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches

 

[14] Sam Carliner: Protests Erupt in Puerto Rico to Fight a Worsening Energy Crisis, Left Voice, October 17, 2021, https://www.leftvoice.org/protests-erupt-in-puerto-rico-to-fight-a-worsening-energy-crisis/

 

[15] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis

 

[16] La CCRI ha analizado ampliamente la contrarrevolución del COVID-19 desde sus inicios. A partir del 2 de febrero de 2020, hemos publicado cerca de 100 folletos, ensayos, artículos y declaraciones más un libro: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. En particular, remitimos a los lectores al Manifiesto de la CCRI: COVID-19: Una cubierta para una gran ofensiva contrarrevolucionaria global. Estamos en un punto de inflexión en la situación mundial a medida que las clases dominantes provocan. Estamos en un punto de inflexión en la situación mundial, ya que las clases dominantes provocan una atmósfera de guerra para legitimar la acumulación de regímenes bonapartistas de Estado chovinistas, 21 de marzo de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-a-cover-for-a-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/. Véase también un nuevo Manifiesto de la CCRI: "Pase verde" y vacunas obligatorias: una nueva etapa en la contrarrevolución de COVID. Abajo la policía chovinista-bonapartista y el estado de vigilancia: ¡defiendan los derechos democráticos! No a la política de salud al servicio de los monopolios capitalistas: ¡expandir el sector de la salud pública bajo el control obrero y popular! 29 de julio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/; Además, llamamos la atención sobre nuestro libro por Michael Pröbsting: La contrarrevolución global COVID-19: qué es y cómo combatirla. Un análisis y una estrategia marxistas para la lucha revolucionaria, RCIT Books, abril de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/. Vea también nuestro primer artículo sobre este tema por Almedina Gunić: Coronavirus: "No soy un virus" ... ¡pero NOSOTROS seremos la cura! La campaña chovinista detrás de la histeria del "coronavirus de Wuhan" y la respuesta revolucionaria, 2 de febrero de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/wuhan-virus/; Michael Pröbsting: The Second Wave of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution. On the ruling class strategy in the current conjuncture, its inner contradictions and the perspectives of the workers and popular resistance, 20 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-second-wave-of-the-covid-19-counterrevolution/; by the same author: The Police and Surveillance State in the Post-Lockdown Phase. A global review of the ruling class’s plans of expanding the bonapartist state machinery amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 21 May 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/police-and-surveillance-state-in-post-lockdown-phase/ ; COVID-19: The Great Barrington Declaration is indeed Great! Numerous medical scientists protest against the reactionary lockdown policy, 11 October 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-the-great-barrington-declaration-is-indeed-great/; Michael Pröbsting: COVID-19: The Current and Historical Roots of Bourgeois Lockdown “Socialism”. Police State and Universal Basic Income are key elements of the new version of reformist “War Socialism” of 1914, 19 December 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/covid-19-the-current-and-historical-roots-of-bourgeois-lockdown-socialism/. Vea también varios artículos en español de nuestros compañeros argentinos: Juan Giglio: La izquierda de la "Big Pharma", dejó de defender las libertades, 1.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/la-izquierda-de-la-big-pharma-dejo-de.html; Juan Giglio: ¿Por qué la izquierda no cuestiona las políticas de la OMS? 8.9.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/por-que-la-izquierda-no-cuestiona-las.html

 

[17] Pierre Briançon: A Chinese Port Partially Closed Because of a Covid Infection. What to Know, 13 August 2021, https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-ningbo-zhoushan-meishan-port-closure-51628879754

 

[18] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21 September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), p. 11

 

[19] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21 September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), p. 10

 

[20] Vea en esto, p. Ej. Vea en esto, p. Ej. Michael Pröbsting: Antiimperialismo en la era de la rivalidad de las Grandes Potencias. Los factores detrás de la creciente rivalidad entre los EE. UU., China, Rusia, la UE y Japón. Una crítica del análisis de la izquierda y un esbozo de la perspectiva marxista, RCIT Books, Viena 2019, Capítulo I, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/; por el mismo autor: The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, CCRI Pamphlet, May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; World Perspectives 2018: A World Pregnant with Wars and Popular Uprisings. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, RCIT Books, Vienna 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2018/; The Great Robbery of the South. Continuity and Changes in the Super-Exploitation of the Semi-Colonial World by Monopoly Capital. Consequences for the Marxist Theory of Imperialism, RCIT Books, Vienna 2013, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/great-robbery-of-the-south/; World economy – heading to a new upswing? (2009), in: Fifth International, Volume 3, No. 3, Autumn 2009, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-economy-crisis-2009/; Imperialism, Globalization and the Decline of Capitalism (2008), in: Richard Brenner, Michael Pröbsting, Keith Spencer: The Credit Crunch - A Marxist Analysis, London 2008, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-and-globalization/; RCIT: Advancing Counterrevolution and Acceleration of Class Contradictions Mark the Opening of a New Political Phase. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries (January 2016), Chapter II and III, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 46, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2016/.

 

[21] Michael Roberts: Profitability, investment and the pandemic, 17 May 2020, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2020/05/17/profitability-investment-and-the-pandemic/

 

[22] Ibid

 

[23] See e.g. Thomas J. Duesterberg, Donald A. Norman: Why Is Capital Investment Consistently Weak in the 21st Century U.S. Economy, The Aspen Institute, April 2014, pp. 4-7; Oren Cass: We’re Just Speculating Here… The Rise of Wall Street and the Fall of American Investment, 25 March 2021, https://americancompass.org/essays/speculating-wall-street-investment/

 

[24] Economic Report of the President, February 2018, Washington, p. 399

 

[25] The Economist: Fossil fuels. Can’t live without them. Yet, 9 October 2021, p. 71

 

[26] Quoted in Kaelyn Forde: China power cuts, UK petrol woes: Why is there an energy crunch? 29 September 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/29/china-power-cuts-uk-petrol-woes-why-is-there-an-energy-crunch

 

[27] IMF: Fiscal Monitor. Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, October 2021, Washington, p. 5

 

[28] CCRI: ¡El fuego de la revolución consumirá el capitalismo catastrófico! Manifiesto por la lucha por la liberación de los trabajadores y oprimidos Documento adoptado por el III. Congreso de la CCRI, abril de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit-fire-manifesto-2021/

 

[29] For an overview and a characterization of these events see, in addition the relevant statements on the individual countries, Michael Pröbsting: Are We Nearing a New “68 Moment”? A massive upsurge of global class struggle in the midst of a dramatic shift in the world situation 22 October 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/are-we-nearing-a-new-68-moment/

 

[30] La CCRI se ha ocupado en numerosas ocasiones de la rivalidad interimperialista de las grandes potencias. Ver p. Ej. el documento CCRI: Perspectivas Mundiales 2021-22: Entrar en una situación global prerrevolucionaria, 22 de agosto de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; ver también: CCRI: El significado del Pacto AUKUS. Estados Unidos intensifica la Guerra Fría interimperialista contra China y provoca a la UE, 18 de septiembre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/; Rusia dispara tiros de advertencia contra un buque de guerra del Reino Unido en el Mar Negro. ¡Abajo el belicismo frío! No hay apoyo para ninguna Gran Potencia imperialista, ¡ni Reino Unido, Estados Unidos ni Rusia! 24 de junio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/; véanse también los dos folletos siguientes de Michael Pröbsting: “Una pelea realmente buena”. Reunión EE.UU.-China en Alaska: Continúa la Guerra Fría Interimperialista, 23 de marzo de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/; Siervos de dos amos. El estalinismo y la nueva guerra fría entre las grandes potencias imperialistas de Oriente y Occidente, 10 de julio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/; para obtener más trabajos sobre este tema, consulte estas subpáginas: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

 

[31] La CCRI ha publicado numerosos documentos sobre el capitalismo en China y su transformación en una Gran Potencia. Vea en esto, p. Ej. nuestro libro de Michael Pröbsting: Antiimperialismo en la era de la rivalidad entre grandes potencias. Los factores detrás de la creciente rivalidad entre los EE. UU., China, Rusia, la UE y Japón. Crítica del análisis de la izquierda y esbozo de la perspectiva marxista, CCRI Books, Viena 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/. Véase también del mismo autor un ensayo publicado en la segunda edición de The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (editado por Immanuel Ness y Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; ¿Cómo es posible que algunos marxistas sigan dudando de que China se ha vuelto capitalista? (Una crítica del PTS / FT), Un análisis del carácter capitalista de las empresas estatales de China y sus consecuencias políticas, 18 de septiembre de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Incapaz de ver la madera de los árboles (PTS / FT y China). El empirismo ecléctico y el fracaso del PTS / FT en reconocer el carácter imperialista de China, 13 de agosto de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/. Vea muchos más documentos de la CCRI en una subpágina especial en el sitio web de la CCRI: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.

 

[32] La CCRI ha publicado numerosos documentos sobre el capitalismo en Rusia y su ascenso a una potencia imperialista. Vea en esto, p. Ej. varios folletos de Michael Pröbsting: The Peculiar Features of Russian Imperialism. A Study of Russia’s Monopolies, Capital Export and Super-Exploitation in the Light of Marxist Theory, 10 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/; Russia and China: Neither Capitalist nor Great Powers? A Reply to the PO/CRFI and their Revisionist Whitewashing of Chinese and Russian imperialism, 28 November 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/russia-and-china-neither-capitalist-nor-great-powers-reply-to-po-crfi/; The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, 27 May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism. Another Reply to Our Critics Who Deny Russia’s Imperialist Character, August 2014, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-theory-and-russia/; Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18 March 2014, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 21, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialist-russia/. Vea varios otros documentos de la CCRI sobre este tema en una subpágina especial en el sitio web de la CCRI.: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/

 

[33] Vea en esto, p. Ej. CCRI: Italia: ¡Los estibadores se preparan para la huelga contra el Green Pass! ¡Solidaridad con esta importante lucha contra la Contrarrevolución del COVID! 13 de octubre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/italian-dockers-strike-against-green-pass/; Huelga general en Italia el 11 de octubre: ¡un importante paso adelante! Los sindicatos militantes de la vanguardia obrera inician con éxito protestas masivas, 12 de octubre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/general-strike-in-italy-on-11-october-an-important-step-forward/; Green Pass in Italy: International Dockworkers Council Supports the Struggle of the Port Workers! 20 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/idc-supports-struggle-of-italian-port-workers-against-green-pass/; ver también Michael Pröbsting: ¿Por qué algunos socialistas se niegan a apoyar la lucha de masas contra el "Pase Verde"? PTS / FT, PSTU / LIT, IMT y PCL de cara a la última etapa de la Contrarrevolución COVID, 15 de octubre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/why-do-some-socialists-refuse-to-support-the-mass-struggle-against-the-green-pass

 

[34] Leon Trotsky: Reply to an Ultimatum (December 1928), in: Leon Trotsky: The Challenge of the Left Opposition (1928-29), Pathfinder Press, New York 1981, p. 364

 

 

 

대공황의 또 하나 중요한 특징, 그리고 그 경제적 원인과 정치적 결과

 

미하엘 프뢰브스팅, 혁명적 공산주의인터내셔널 (RCIT) 국제서기, 2021년 10월 23일, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

  편집자 주: 다음 문서에는 그림 5개가 포함되어 있다. 이 그림들은 기술적인 이유로 첨부된 PDF 파일을 통해서만 볼 수 있다.

 

8월에 우리는 세계경제의 경기상승 지속을 예견한 부르주아 경제학자들의 공식 낙관론 (많은 좌파 논평가들도 공유한)을 믿지 말라고 경계를 촉구한 바 있다.[1] 3주 전에 우리는 보다 상세하게 자본주의 세계경제가 현 대공황 내 두 번째 침체로 치닫고 있다고 설명했다.[2] 그 사이에 많은 부르주아 경제학자들도 미몽에서 깨어나 완전히 풀이 죽어 있다. 실제로 이들 진영에서는 패닉이 확산되고 있다. 서방 독점 부르주아지의 가장 명민한 대변인을 자처하는 이코노미스트 지 최신호에는 표지에 텅 빈 마트 진열대 사진과 함께 “부족의 경제 (The shortage economy)”라는 헤드라인을 달았다.[3]

 

현재 새로운 침체로 넘어가는 과정에서 핵심 특징은 에너지 위기다. 세계 각지에서 이 에너지 대란이 일어나고 있다. 중국에서는 31개 성(省) 중 최소 20개 성 당국이 전력 배급에 의존할 수밖에 없는 사정이다. 사우스차이나모닝포스트(SCMP)는 다음과 같이 보도했다. "동북부 두 성 랴오닝성과 지린성이 신호등 전원을 차단하는가 하면, 일반 가구에도 전력 공급을 제한하여 일부 지역에서 윤번제로 정전을 실시하는 사태까지 갔다. 그리고 광둥성의 전자제품 제조 허브인 둥관에서는 일부 공장들이 생산을 일주일에 하루나 이틀만 하고 가동을 중단할 수밖에 없었다."[4] 이러한 문제는 계속될 것 같다. 주중 유럽연합상공회의소 이사회는 전기 문제가 내년 3월까지 지속될 것으로 예측하고 있다.[5]

 

인도에서도 사정이 매우 비슷하다. 석탄 발전이 국내 전력 믹스의 약 70%나 되다보니 석탄에 의존하는 발전소 135기 중 70기가 폐쇄 위기를 맞고 있다. 언론 보도에 따르면, 20기가 이미 문을 닫았고, 곧 이어 더 많은 발전소가 문을 닫을 것이라고 한다. “수도 델리와 라자스탄, 펀자브, 케랄라, 마하라슈트라, 우타르 프라데시, 마디야 프라데시, 자르칸드, 안드라 프라데시, 타밀나두 등의 지방 당국들은 이미 전기 공급을 끊거나 대폭적인 단전을 발표하기 직전이다."[6]

 

에너지 수입 비중이 큰 일본과 한국도 에너지 문제에 직면해 있다. 한국전력공사가 8년여 만에 처음으로 전기요금을 인상했다. 원자재 가격이 10월 1일 현재 전력용 연료탄은 전년 대비 125.5% (1t당 206.3달러), 액화천연가스의 한국 수입가는 68.4% (1t당 534.6달러) 올랐다.[7]

 

브라질에서는 자본주의 환경 파괴에서 비롯한 91년 만의 최악의 가뭄과 더불어 가스 및 석유 가격 상승으로 수력 발전소가 전기를 공급할 수 없게 되었다. 전기세, 가스료가 대폭 인상됐다. 공식 자료에 따르면 9월까지 12개월 동안 전기요금이 28.8%, 취사용 가스가 34.7% 급등했다.[8]

 

유럽과 북미의 기존 제국주의 나라들도 에너지 위기에 직면해 있다. 영국은 최악의 타격을 맞았다. 영국의 에너지 회사들 중 일부는 높은 비용 때문에 가동을 중단해야 했다. 많은 주유소에 기름이 없다. “기름이 없어 못 팔아 죄송”이라는 주유소 안내판 사진이 최근 몇 주 동안 언론 헤드라인을 장식했다. 트럭 운전사 10만 명 부족으로 사정이 더 악화되면서 정부는 주유소에 연료를 공급하기 위해 군인들을 출동시켜야 했다.[9]

 

그러나 유럽 가스 가격이 사상 최고치인 100유로까지 치솟으면서 유럽 대륙에서도 곳곳에서 위기가 감지되고 있다. 블룸버그 통신은 다음과 같이 보도한다. "글로벌 팬데믹으로부터 경제가 회복되고 사람들이 사무실로 돌아오면서 에너지 가격이 미국, 유럽, 아시아에서 상승하고 있다. 유럽은 가격 상승으로 비료 생산업체 CF인더스트리에서 야라 인터내셔널 ASA에 이르는 몇몇 거대 기업과 세계 1위 화학 기업 바스프 SE가 공장을 폐쇄하거나 생산량을 줄여야 하는 등 겨울을 앞두고 충분한 가스와 석탄을 확보하기 위해 분투하고 있다."[10]

 

그 결과, 유럽의 위탁 창고들이 75%도 채우지 못하고 있는데 이는 10여 년 만에 최저 수준이다. “리서치 사(社) 우드 맥켄지의 마시모 디 오도아르도는 "유럽과 아시아 모두 추운 겨울로 인해 유럽의 저장수준이 0으로 떨어질 위험이 있다"고 말한다.[11] 전문가들은 유럽 나라들이 동절기에 정전 사태를 맞을 수 있다고 경고한다.[12]

 

AP통신은 다음과 같은 경고조의 말로 상황을 성격규정 한다. "전 세계가 에너지 대란에 꽉 물려 있다. 세계경제를 굴러가게 하고 가정에 빛과 열을 대주는 가스와 석유와 기타 연료 등의 주요 시장들이 급격히 축소 경색되고 있는 것이다. 겨울로 다가가면서, 이는 공과금과 물가가 뛰고, 에너지 소비량이 많은 유럽과 중국이 코로나19 팬데믹으로부터 어떻게 회복될지 우려가 커지고 있음을 의미한다."[13]

 

미국도 에너지 문제에 직면해 있다. 워싱턴의 식민지 중 하나인 푸에르토리코는 최악의 타격을 입었다. 반복되는 정전 사태로 수도 산후안에서 이미 대규모 시위가 벌어졌다.[14]

 

 

 

무엇이 에너지 위기를 촉발시켰는가?

 

많은 부르주아 경제 논평가들은 특수한 지역적 요인을 들어 에너지 위기를 설명하려 한다. 영국에서는 통상 동유럽 출신 이주노동자들인 화물차 운전기사들이 브렉시트 이후 영국에서 쫓겨나면서 생긴 인력 부족 사태를 자주 언급한다. 다른 유럽 나라들에서도 마찬가지로 트럭 운전사 부족 문제를 주로 들고 있다. 지난해 팬데믹을 틈타 트럭 운전사들이 많이 동유럽으로 쫓겨난 것이 사실이다.

 

중국에서는 논평가들이 지방 당국에게 전기요금을 10%까지 인상할 수 있도록 허용해준 점을 들고 있다. (며칠 전 20%까지로 변경되었다). 한편 석탄 가격은 이 정도의 규제도 되지 않으면서 최근 사상 최고치를 기록했다. 그 결과, 전력 회사들은 수익성이 낮다고 충분한 전력을 생산하길 꺼려왔다. 석탄이 2020년 중국 전력 공급의 68.5%를 공급하는 여전히 지배적인 공급원이라는 점에서 어려운 상황이 가중되고 있다.[15]

 

이 모든 지역적 요인들이 에너지난을 일으키는 데서 일익을 담당하고 있는 것은 사실이다. 하지만 많은 나라에서 같은 문제가 동시에 나타난다면, 거기에는 보다 근본적인, 글로벌 원인이 있음에 틀림없다.

 

이와 같이 일국·지역 수준을 넘어 세계적 수준의 사태추이를 봐야할 근거와 정당성이 있다. 위에서 언급했듯이, 유럽의 (이주자) 트럭 운전사의 부족은 ㅡ 약 50만 명이 부족한 것으로 보고되고 있다 ㅡ 운송에 문제를 야기한다. 이것은 확실한 요인 맞다. 트럭 운전사 부족 사태는 2020년 봄 이래로 전 세계의 자본가 정부가 팬데믹 대응을 빌미 삼아 자국 주민을 상대로 보나파르트주의 정책을 실시하고 이주자 및 타국을 겨냥해 배외주의 정책을 펴서 야기된 사태다. 여기서도 다시 말하건대, RCIT가 코로나 반혁명 정책을 배외주의적 국가 보나파르트주의로 성격규정 하는 이유다.[16]

 

종종 언급되는 또 다른 요인은 에너지 가격의 대폭 상승이다. 미국의 원유 가격은 배럴당 83달러로 7년 만에 최고치를 기록했으며 국제 기준가격인 브렌트유는 85달러 수준이다. 천연가스 가격도 급격히 상승해 공급량의 90%를 수입하고 (대부분 러시아산) 있는 유럽에 특히 큰 타격을 가하고 있다. 올해 초 이래로 지금까지 시간당 약 19유로에서 거의 100유로로 5배까지 올랐다.

 

이 모든 요인들은 확실히 에너지 위기를 설명하는 데서 제 역할이 있다. 실제로 그 요인들은 자본주의의 무정부적 본성을 보여준다. 자본주의는 자본가들의 이윤욕과 지배 엘리트의 권력욕에 의해 추동되는 체제다. 깊은 위기의 시기에, 공황기에 권력을 공고히 하는 데 도움이 된다면, 자본가 정부는 잔인하게 배외주의를 조장하고 이주노동자들을 내쫓는다. 이는 중국의 스탈린주의-자본가 정권과 인도의 우익 모디 정부에 의해서도 자행된 일이다. 두 정권 모두 몇 주 만에 "이주"노동자들 ㅡ 중국 “농민공”처럼 국내의 농촌 지역에서 온 ㅡ 을 도시에서 추방했다.

 

마찬가지로, 국가 보나파르트주의 방역 정책의 일부로서 악명 높은 권위주의적 록다운 정책이 또한 운송 부문에 심대한 영향을 미쳤다. 예를 들어 중국 정권은 몇 가지 사건 때문에 주요 항구들에 대한 폐쇄를 반복해서 했다. 이로 인해 전 세계 공급망의 막대한 차질이 빚어졌고, 지금도 계속되고 있다. "지난 6월, 선전 항과 광저우 항에서 코로나 감염으로 활동이 중단되었다. 6월부터 선전의 항만 조업 중단으로 인한 컨테이너 선 대기를 포함하여 글로벌 컨테이너선 항만 대기 정체로 컨테이너 선사들이 지난 수개월 동안 예약이 밀려 있는 미증유의 활황을 맞게 됐고 운송료도 치솟았다. 글로벌 화물 데이터 업체 프레이트 웨이브스는 "현재 아시아에서 미국 서해안으로 박스 하나를 옮기는 비용이 팬데믹 이전보다 10배 가까이 비싸다"고 보도했다. 운송료 척도로 활용되는 발틱건조지수가 지난 8월 11년 만에 최고치로 올랐다.[17] 아래 그림 1은 경기침체 시작 이래 상품 및 배송 가격의 대폭 상승을 보여준다.

 

 

 

그림 1. 상품 및 배송 가격, 2018년 1월 ~ 2021년 9월 [18]

 

 

 

이와 같이, 자본주의의 무정부적 성격을 글로벌 공급망 차질에서 볼 수 있다. 미국 서해안에 빈 컨테이너가 쌓이는 사이 아시아 기업들은 수출할 컨테이너를 못 구해서 발을 동동 구르고 있다. 그 결과, 그림 2와 같이 제조업의 재고가 감소하고 있다.

 

 

 

그림 2. 미국, 독일, 한국의 제조업 재고, 2019년 1월 ~ 2021년 9월 [19]

 

 

 

사회주의 사회는 세계적 수준에서 경제를 계획하고 조정할 것이다. 사회주의 사회의 결정을 추동하는 것은 기업의 이윤욕도, 민족국가의 배외주의적 이익도, 모두 아닌 오직 전 지구적인 세계 주민의 필요, 수요다. 그러한 사회주의 사회는 필요한 곳에 컨테이너를 보내고, 필요할 때 에너지 생산 능력을 확장하며, "내국인" 노동자와 다르지 않게 "외국인" 노동자를 대할 것이다.

 

에너지 위기의 더 깊은 원인은 무엇인가?

 

여기서 우리는 이 에너지 위기의 원인을 완전하게 이해하기 위해 더 깊이 들어갈 필요가 있다. “자유시장” 전도사들의 단순 논리에서 출발해서는, 에너지가 필요한데 왜 충분한 동력공급이 없는지 이해하기 어렵다. 상기해보자. 우리 모두는 시장이 수요와 공급에 기초한다고 들었다. 그렇다면, 분명히 에너지 수요는 있는데 왜 충분한 공급이 없지?!

 

에너지 위기의 더 깊은 이유는 이윤율 저하 경향을 가져오는 자본주의의 일반적·장기적 쇠퇴다. 이것이 기본적으로 의미하는 것은, 생산에 (기계, 원료 등과 함께 노동자에게 지불된 임금에) 투자된 자본 총액 대비 잉여가치 비율이 장기적으로 작아진다는 것이다. 따라서 잠재적으로 자본의 확대 재생산에 사용될 수 있는 잉여가치가 점점 더 적어진다. 불가피하게 이는 자본가들이 생산 확대에 투자하는 것이 점점 더 수익성이 떨어지면서 지금과 같은 생산 차질과 공급망 붕괴를 포함하는 공황을 낳는다. 그리고 이러한 과정이 자본주의의 장기적·역사적 쇠퇴 속에서 진행된다.

 

우리는 여러 문서들에서 이 점을 강조해서 설명해 왔기 때문에 여기서는 더 세부적으로 들어가진 않겠다.[20] 간략한 경험적 개요를 제시하기 위해 맑스주의 경제학자 마이클 로버츠가 발표한 두 가지 수치를 여기서 인용해 보겠다. 아래 그림 3은 1950년부터 2017년까지 기존 제국주의 국가들 (미국, 일본, 독일, 프랑스, 영국, 이탈리아, 캐나다)의 내부수익률 추이를 보여준다. 그림 4는 1997년부터 2019년까지의 글로벌 기업 이윤 추이를 보여준다. 두 그림 모두 장기 추세적으로 이윤율이 하락한다는 맑스주의 테제를 확인시켜준다.

 

 

 

그림 3. G7 국가의 내부수익률, 1950-2017년 [21]

 

 

 

그림 4. 글로벌 기업 이윤, 1997-2019년 연간 성장률 [22]

 

이 같은 이윤율 하락이 다시 자본축적률 하락으로 이어졌다. 자본스톡 확대를 뜻하는 투자의 성장 동력이 쇠퇴한다는 의미다. 예를 들어, 미국에서 GDP 대비 순 비주거용 고정투자 비율이 지난 4-50년 동안 거의 절반으로 (1970년대와 1980년대 4.1%에서 2010년대 2.5%로) 떨어졌다.[23] 같은 동역학을 나타내는 또 다른 척도는 자본스톡 대비 순투자 비율의 역사적인 추이다. 아래 그림 5에서 볼 수 있듯이, 이 비율은 오랫동안 미국에서 하락해 왔는데, 이러한 추세적 하락 과정은 공식 <백악관 대통령 경제 보고서>가 그 2018년 판에서 우려스럽게 언급한 바와 같이 "[미국] 경제의 생산 능력을 제약하는" 프로세스다.

 

 

 

그림 5. 미국 자본스톡 대비 순투자 비율, 1945-2016년 [24]

 

 

 

이러한 경향은 최근 발표된 이코노미스트지 조사보고서에서도 확인되는데, 보고서는 유럽 및 미국에서 500대 기업의 투자가 장기적으로 감소해가고 있는 것을 보여준다.[25]

 

이러한 투자 증가율 감소 경향은 에너지 부문에서 특히 두드러진다. 골드만삭스의 한 애널리스트가 직설적으로 표현했듯이, "가스, 석탄, 석유, 금속, 채광업 등 구 경제는 눈에 띄게 과소 투자되고 있다. 우리는 그것을 구 경제의 복수라고 부른다. 저조한 수익률로 인해 자본이 구 경제에서 이탈해 신 경제로 이동하고 있다."[26]

 

투자를 크게 늘려도 이들 부문에서는 충분한 이윤을 낼 수 없다고 자본가들이 보고 있는 것이다. 그리하여 돈을 다른 부문에 사용하거나 투기하는 쪽을 자본가들은 택한다.

 

실제로 각국 정부들은 재정 지원, 감세 등을 통해 소위 "녹색에너지" 산업 신설을 지원해왔다. 그러나 여기서도 자본가들은 충분한 이윤을 기대할 수 있는 한에서만 투자하기 때문에 그러한 산업부문에 대한 투자는 제한적이었다. 그리고 자본가 정부들 ㅡ 특히 제국주의 국가들에서 ㅡ 도 역사적으로 높은 수준의 부채를 안고 있다 보니 그와 같이 "녹색에너지" 부문을 활성화하기 위한 국가자본주의적 개입의 여지는 제한적이다. (아래 표 1 참조)

 

 

 

표 1. 일반정부부채, 2016년 ~ 2021년 (GDP 대비 백분율) [27]

 

 

 

나라 2016년 2017 2018 2019 2020

 

캐나다 91.7% 88.8 88.8 86.8 117.5

 

프랑스 98.0 98.3 98.0 97.6 115.1

 

독일 69.3 65.0 61.6 59.2 69.1

 

이탈리아 134.8 134.1 134.4 134.6 155.8

 

일본 232.5 231.4 232.5 235.4 254.1

 

영국 86.8 86.3 85.8 85.2 104.5

 

미국 106.9 106.0 107.1 108.5 133.9

 

중국 48.2 51.7 53.8 57.1 66.3

 

인도 68.9 69.7 70.4 74.1 89.6

 

러시아연방 14.8 14.3 13.6 13.8 19.3

 

라틴아메리카 56.4 61.1 67.4 68.3 78.1

 

사우디아라비아 13.1 17.2 19.0 22.8 32.5

 

남아공 47.1 48.6 51.6 56.3 69.4

 

세계 83.2 82.0 82.3 83.6 98.6

 

 

 

잘 알려진 바와 같이, 이것은 기후에도 재앙적인 결과를 가져왔고, 역으로 이번에는 기후 변화가 다시 경제에 거대한 영향을 미친다. (예를 들어, 혹한과 폭염은 에너지 비용을 증가시키고 홍수, 허리케인 등도 엄청난 사회적·경제적 피해를 야기한다.)

 

 

 

"암흑의 겨울" - 경제적·정치적 결과

 

가장 중요한 경제적·정치적 결과들과 그에 따른 혁명가들의 임무를 간략히 지적하는 것으로 글을 마무리하자.

 

1. 첫째, 에너지 위기가 자본주의 세계경제에 심대한 영향을 미칠 것이 분명하다. 반복되는 정전과 전기료 인상은 당연히 생산 감축을 가져올 것이다. 우리가 지난 글들에서 지적했듯이 에너지 위기는 고립된 현상이 아니라 자본주의 위기의 다른 증상들 (부채 증가, 운송 차질, 공급망 붕괴 등)과 결합 발전하기 때문에 더욱 그렇다. 간단히 말해서, 우리는 여전히 자본주의 세계경제가 2019년 가을에 시작된 대공황에 갇혀 있다는 경고를 재차 발하는 바다. 2020년 봄의 첫 번째 침체 이후, 이제 두 번째 침체를 향해 가고 있다.

 

2. 제2 침체 또한 극적인 정치적 결과를 가져올 것이다. 이 같은 에너지 위기가 “암흑의 겨울”을 불러올 것이라는 것은 아주 가능성이 높은 시나리오다. 이 겨울이 북반구만의 겨울이라는 것은 사실이다. 그러나 그 못지않게 남반구의 폭염과 열파도 에너지 위기에 거대한 부정적 효과를 미칠 것이다. 즉 남반구에서도 정전과 전기료 인상으로 결과할 것이다. 사람들은 추운 (또는 매우 더운) 집에서 살아야만 할 것이고, TV, 인터넷, 라디오가 중단될 것이다, 등등. 간단히 말해서, 이 위기는 기업들뿐만 아니라 인민대중에게도 즉각적이고 급격한 영향을 미칠 것이다. 최근 발표한 RCIT <선언>에서 우리는 부르주아 계급 사회의 현 상태를 "재앙 자본주의"로 성격규정 했다.[28] 작금의 사태는 우리의 평가에 대한 강력한 확인이다!

 

3. 불가피하게 이것은 많은 나라에서 대규모 정치 위기를 불러일으킬 것이다. 정부의 신용을 실추시킬 것이고, 사람들을 거리로 나오게 할 것이다. 그리하여 이러한 "암흑의 겨울"이 각국에서 준혁명적 · 혁명적 위기를 촉발할 개연성이 높다.

 

4. 이 같은 위험한 사태발전에 직면하여, 자본가 정부들은 소요를 억누르고 대중의 주의를 돌려놓기 위해 할 수 있는 모든 것을 할 것이다. 자본가 정부들이 어떻게 이것을 할 수 있을지 몇 가지 현실적인 가능성이 있다. 첫째, 자본가 정부들은 또 다른 코로나 비상사태를 선포하고 새로운 록다운 봉쇄령과 집합·집회 제한/금지령 등을 내리는 것이 불가피하다고 주장할 가능성이 있다. 물론, 그러한 조치의 실제 목적은 팬데믹 극복이 아니라 주민 통제다. 정세적으로 정부에 매우 위험한 상황에서 인민대중을 통제해야 할 목적 말이다. 이는 또한 (우리가 반복해서 지적해왔듯이) 2019년 여름 이래로 많은 정권들이 ㅡ 중국에서 프랑스에서 칠레까지 ㅡ 민중항쟁에 직면하자 2020년 봄에 내리꽂은 계엄령 식 록다운 봉쇄의 진짜 목적이었다.[29]

 

5. 나아가 팬데믹 외에도 자본가 정부들은 다른 국가들과의 긴장을 유발하는 것으로 대중의 주의를 돌려놓기 위해 또한 애쓸 것이다. RCIT가 여러 문서에서 지적했듯이, 세계의 몇몇 지역은 이미 자본가 국가들 간의 긴장 고조로 찢겨져 있다. 지난 몇 년 동안, 우리는 제국주의 강대국 간 패권경쟁이 급격히 가속화하는 것을 보아왔다.[30] 이 분쟁들 중 가장 중요한 것이 미·중 간의 신 냉전이다.[31] 이에 못지않게 서방 열강과 러시아 간의 긴장도 최근 고조되고 있다.[32] 이에 더해 중동에서 (예를 들어 이스라엘-이란, 알제리-모로코, 터키-시리아), 동아프리카에서 (이집트-수단-에티오피아), 남 카프카스에서 (아르메니아-아제르바이잔), 남아시아에서 (중국-인도, 인도-파키스탄, 타지키스탄-아프가니스탄) 분쟁이 언제든 수면 위로 다시 튀어오를 기세에 있다. 마지막으로, 이러한 첨예한 위기와 혼돈의 환경이 쿠데타와 내전 (수단, 튀니지, 에티오피아, 말리, 기니) 발발의 도화선을 공급하고 있다.

 

 

 

혁명 전략

 

6. 간단히 말해서, "암흑의 겨울"은 전쟁과 혁명의 새로운 국면을 만들어낸다. RCIT는 모든 진정한 사회주의자들에게 그러한 시기를 준비할 것을 촉구한다! 일차적으로 이것은 흔들림 없는 혁명적 투쟁 노선을 제창한다는 것을 뜻한다. "암흑의 겨울"을 빌미로 지배계급이 감행할 모든 경제적 · 권위주의적 공격에 맞서서, 파업과 시위와 항쟁·봉기 등의 대중행동과 민중총회, 행동위원회, 정방대 등 노동자·피억압자의 자주적 조직과 같은 투쟁 방법을 내걸어야 한다. 사회주의자들은 민주적 제 권리에 대한 공격, 록다운, 경찰·감시 체제, 백신 의무화 등 코로나 반혁명 공세에 대항하는 파업과 시위 (이탈리아와 프랑스에서처럼)를 지지해야 한다.[33] 또 모든 형태의 군사주의와 배외주의에 반대하는 것도 필요하다. 제국주의 간 분쟁 시에는 혁명적 패배주의 입장을 취해야 한다. 즉 양 진영 모두에 반대하며 양 진영의 제국주의 지배자들을 약화시키고 나아가 타도하는 데 그러한 분쟁을 이용해야 한다. 반식민지 자본주의 국가들 간의 반동적 분쟁에도 같은 전술이 적용되어야 한다. 억압자와 피억압 인민 간의 전쟁에서, 또는 반동 쿠데타나 내전의 경우에 사회주의자들은 피억압자를 편 들어야 (비 혁명적 지도부에 정치적 지지를 보내지 않고서) 한다. 한편 "암흑의 겨울"을 틈탄 지배계급의 공격에 대항하는 민중 시위에 실천적으로 개입하는 ㅡ 가능한 곳에서는 주도적 역할을 하는 ㅡ 것도 필요하다. 자본주의 현 위기가 제기하는 임무를 이렇게 한 마디로 요약해보자. 인민대중에게 "암흑의 겨울"을 자본주의 지배계급에게 "암흑의 겨울"로 전화시키자!

 

7. 사회주의자들은 그러한 대중투쟁에 대한 정치적·실천적 개입을, 과감한 사회주의혁명 프로그램과 결합시켜야 한다. 이러한 프로그램은 위에서 말한 대중시위, 파업, 총파업 등과 같은 모든 형태의 대중투쟁과 함께 민중총회, 행동위원회, 정당방위대 등의 대중 자주 조직들을 내거는 강령이다. 당면 투쟁을 지배계급의 권력을 분쇄·해체하는 전략적 임무 (노동자 생산통제, 노동자 평의회와 민병, 노동자·민중 정부)와 결합하는 것이 중요함을 설명해야 한다. 재앙의 자본주의는 타도돼야 한다. 일국에서뿐만 아니라 국제적, 세계적으로 타도해야 한다. 현 사태는 인류의 당면 초미의 문제들이 일국에서만으로는 풀 수 없다는 것을 보여주는 강력한 증거다. 생산, 운송에 대한 공동 국제 플랜을 짜서 기후변화를 제한하고 극복할 세계 노동자·농민 공화국 연방에 의해서만, 세계적 규모로만 그 문제들을 다루고 풀 수 있다.

 

8. 트로츠키가 남겨 놓은 말이 있다. "(좌익)반대파의 큰 역사적 강점은, 그 외견상의 약점에도 불구하고 세계사적 과정의 맥을 놓치지 않고 짚고 있다는 점에 있다. 즉 계급 역학관계를 명확히 감지하고 미래를 예견하여 의식적으로 그 미래를 준비한다는 사실 말이다."[34] 이것이 바로 오늘 혁명가들의 임무이며, RCIT가 ㅡ 그리고 그 밖의 진정한 혁명가들과 함께 ㅡ 그 동안 강령·전술을 벼리며 해온 것이다. 이제 과제는 이 강령·전술상의 강점을 활용하여 혁명적 세계당 창건을 앞당기는 것이다. RCIT <선언>의 결론을 다시 한 번 밝혀본다. 동지들이 우리의 목표에 동의한다면, RCIT에 합류하라! 사회주의 세계혁명을 위한 투쟁으로 전진하라! 혁명의 불길이 재앙의 자본주의를 태워버리게 하라!

 

 

 

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[1] 다음을 보라. Chapter II in RCIT: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/ [“II. 자본주의 세계경제 위기의 특색과 전망” <세계 정세전망 2021-22년: 준 혁명적 세계정세 진입> https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/#anker_14]

 

[2] Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/ [<세계경제: 현 대공황 내 두 번째 침체로 치닫나?> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/#anker_2]; 같은 저자: The Real Estate Bubble in Capitalist China. Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic make global investors tremble and for good reasons, 6 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/the-real-estate-bubble-in-capitalist-china/ [<자본주의 중국에서 부동산 거품> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/the-real-estate-bubble-in-capitalist-china/#anker_2]

 

[3] The Economist, October 9th – 15th 2021

 

[4] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis: why is it happening, how bad is it, and what if it continues into the freezing winter months? 10 October 2021, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3151710/chinas-power-crisis-why-it-happening-how-bad-it-and-what-if?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[5] Keith Bradsher: China’s Power Problems Expose a Strategic Weakness, 13 October 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/13/business/china-electricity-shortage.html

 

[6] Anil Sharma: India faces a crisis as power shortage worsens, 13 October 2021, https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/india-faces-a-crisis-as-power-shortage-worsens/

 

[7] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4 Oct, 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[8] David Biller and Diane Jeantet: Brazil’s inflation hits double digits, punishing the poor, Associated Press, October 8, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/business-caribbean-brazil-rio-de-janeiro-prices-2b300ff78c5ae0003903a036b155a319

 

[9] James Ludden: UK government clears army to begin petrol deliveries from Monday, Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/uk-government-clears-army-to-begin-petrol-deliveries-from-monday

 

[10] Anna Shiryaevskaya, Vanessa Dezem and Elena Mazneva: Energy crunch: Natural gas prices in Europe hit record 100 euros, Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/energy-crunch-natural-gas-prices-in-europe-hit-record-100-euro

 

[11] David Mchugh, Colleen Barry, Joe Mcdonald and Tatiana Pollastri: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches, 2021-10-19, https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-business-russia-health-70b97e36da53f62eba588b44f2b394bc

 

[12] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4 Oct, 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[13] David Mchugh et al: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches

 

[14] Sam Carliner: Protests Erupt in Puerto Rico to Fight a Worsening Energy Crisis, Left Voice, October 17, 2021, https://www.leftvoice.org/protests-erupt-in-puerto-rico-to-fight-a-worsening-energy-crisis/

 

[15] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis

 

[16] RCIT는 코로나19 반혁명을 그 시작 이래로 광범위에 걸쳐 분석해 왔다. 2020년 2월 2일부터 우리는 90편의 소책자와 논문, 기사, 성명에 단행본 책까지 발표했다. 이 모든 것을 다음의 우리 웹사이트 별도 하위 페이지에 모아놓았다. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. 특히 다음을 보라. RCIT Manifesto: COVID-19: A Cover for a Major Global Counterrevolutionary Offensive. We are at a turning point in the world situation as the ruling classes provoke a war-like atmosphere in order to legitimize the build-up of chauvinist state-bonapartist regimes, 21 March 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-a-cover-for-a-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/. [<코로나19: 글로벌 반혁명 공세를 가리는 덮개> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/covid-19-cover-for-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/] 다음의 RCIT 2차 시국선언도 보라. Manifesto: “Green Pass” & Compulsory Vaccinations: A New Stage in the COVID Counterrevolution. Down with the chauvinist-bonapartist police & surveillance state – defend democratic rights! No to health policy in the service of the capitalist monopolies – expand the public health sector under workers and popular control! 29 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/ [<“백신여권” & 백신접종 의무화: 코로나 반혁명의 새로운 단계> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/#anker_3]; 다음도 보라. Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/. [<<코로나19 글로벌 반혁명>> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/book-the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/] 이 문제에 대한 다음 우리의 첫 기사도 보라. Almedina Gunić: Coronavirus: "I am not a Virus"... but WE will be the Cure! The chauvinist campaign behind the “Wuhan Coronavirus” hysteria and the revolutionary answer, 2 February 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/wuhan-virus/ [<코로나바이러스: “우한 바이러스”히스테리 뒤에 숨은 배외주의 캠페인> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/wuhan-virus/]; Michael Pröbsting: The Second Wave of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution. On the ruling class strategy in the current conjuncture, its inner contradictions and the perspectives of the workers and popular resistance, 20 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-second-wave-of-the-covid-19-counterrevolution/; 같은 저자: The Police and Surveillance State in the Post-Lockdown Phase. A global review of the ruling class’s plans of expanding the bonapartist state machinery amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 21 May 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/police-and-surveillance-state-in-post-lockdown-phase/; COVID-19: The Great Barrington Declaration is indeed Great! Numerous medical scientists protest against the reactionary lockdown policy, 11 October 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-the-great-barrington-declaration-is-indeed-great/; Michael Pröbsting: COVID-19: The Current and Historical Roots of Bourgeois Lockdown “Socialism”. Police State and Universal Basic Income are key elements of the new version of reformist “War Socialism” of 1914, 19 December 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/covid-19-the-current-and-historical-roots-of-bourgeois-lockdown-socialism/. RCIT 아르헨티나 동지들의 다음 스페인어 기사들도 보라. Juan Giglio: La izquierda de la "Big Pharma", dejó de defender las libertades, 1.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/la-izquierda-de-la-big-pharma-dejo-de.html; Juan Giglio: ¿Por qué la izquierda no cuestiona las políticas de la OMS? 8.9.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/por-que-la-izquierda-no-cuestiona-las.html

 

[17] Pierre Briançon: A Chinese Port Partially Closed Because of a Covid Infection. What to Know, 13 August 2021, https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-ningbo-zhoushan-meishan-port-closure-51628879754

 

[18] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21 September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), p. 11

 

[19] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21 September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), p. 10

 

[20] 이에 대해서는 다음을 보라. Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, Chapter I, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/ [<<강대국 패권쟁투 시대에 반제국주의>> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/book-anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/]; 같은 저자: The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, RCIT Pamphlet, May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; World Perspectives 2018: A World Pregnant with Wars and Popular Uprisings. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, RCIT Books, Vienna 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2018/; The Great Robbery of the South. Continuity and Changes in the Super-Exploitation of the Semi-Colonial World by Monopoly Capital. Consequences for the Marxist Theory of Imperialism, RCIT Books, Vienna 2013, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/great-robbery-of-the-south/; World economy – heading to a new upswing? (2009), in: Fifth International, Volume 3, No. 3, Autumn 2009, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-economy-crisis-2009/; Imperialism, Globalization and the Decline of Capitalism (2008), in: Richard Brenner, Michael Pröbsting, Keith Spencer: The Credit Crunch - A Marxist Analysis, London 2008, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-and-globalization/; RCIT: Advancing Counterrevolution and Acceleration of Class Contradictions Mark the Opening of a New Political Phase. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries (January 2016), Chapter II and III, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 46, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2016/.

 

[21] Michael Roberts: Profitability, investment and the pandemic, 17 May 2020, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2020/05/17/profitability-investment-and-the-pandemic/

 

[22] 같은 글

 

[23] 다음을 보라. Thomas J. Duesterberg, Donald A. Norman: Why Is Capital Investment Consistently Weak in the 21st Century U.S. Economy, The Aspen Institute, April 2014, pp. 4-7; Oren Cass: We’re Just Speculating Here… The Rise of Wall Street and the Fall of American Investment, 25 March 2021, https://americancompass.org/essays/speculating-wall-street-investment/

 

[24] Economic Report of the President, February 2018, Washington, p. 399

 

[25] The Economist: Fossil fuels. Can’t live without them. Yet, 9 October 2021, p. 71

 

[26] 다음에서 인용. Kaelyn Forde: China power cuts, UK petrol woes: Why is there an energy crunch? 29 September 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/29/china-power-cuts-uk-petrol-woes-why-is-there-an-energy-crunch

 

[27] IMF: Fiscal Monitor. Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, October 2021, Washington, p. 5

 

[28] RCIT: The Fire of Revolution Will Burn Down Catastrophic Capitalism! Manifesto for the Liberation Struggle of the Workers and Oppressed Document adopted by the III. Congress of the RCIT, April 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit-fire-manifesto-2021/

 

[29] 이들 사건에 대한 개괄과 성격규정으로는, 개별 나라들에 대한 관련 성명 외에 다음을 보라. Michael Pröbsting: Are We Nearing a New “68 Moment”? A massive upsurge of global class struggle in the midst of a dramatic shift in the world situation 22 October 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/are-we-nearing-a-new-68-moment/

 

[30] RCIT는 강대국들의 제국주의 패권 경쟁을 여러 차례 다루었다. 예를 들어 다음을 보라. World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; 다음도 보라. The Meaning of the AUKUS Pact. The U.S. escalates the inter-imperialist Cold War against China and provokes the EU, 18 September 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/ [<오커스 조약의 의미 - 미국이 중국과의 제국주의 간 냉전을 고조시키고 EU를 자극하다> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/#anker_3]; Russia Fires Warning Shots against UK Warship in the Black Sea. Down with Cold Warmongering! No support for any imperialist Great Power – neither UK, US nor Russia! 24 June 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/ [<러시아가 흑해에서 영국 군함에 경고사격하고. 영국은 사태를 부인, 축소하려 하다> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/#anker_1]; 다음 두 팜플렛도 보라. Michael Pröbsting: “A Really Good Quarrel”. US-China Alaska Meeting: The Inter-Imperialist Cold War Continues, 23 March 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/ [<제국주의 간 냉전은 어떻게 바이든 하에서도 계속되고 있나> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/us-china-cold-war-continues-after-alaska-meeting/]; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/ [<두 주인을 섬기는 시종 - 스탈린주의와 제국주의 신냉전> https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/#anker_10; 이 문제에 관한 더 많은 문서들을 다음 링크로 들어가서 볼 수 있다.: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

 

[31] RCIT는 중국 자본주의와 중국의 강대국 부상에 관한 많은 문서를 발표했다. 다음을 보라. Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. 같은 저자의 다음 책에 실린 글도 보라. the second edition of The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (edited by Immanuel Ness and Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; How is it possible that some Marxists still Doubt that China has Become Capitalist? (A Critique of the PTS/FT), An analysis of the capitalist character of China’s State-Owned Enterprises and its political consequences, 18 September 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Unable to See the Wood for the Trees (PTS/FT and China). Eclectic empiricism and the failure of the PTS/FT to recognize the imperialist character of China, 13 August 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/. 그 외 많은 문서들이 다음의 RCIT 웹사이트 별도 하위 페이지에 있다.https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.

 

[32] RCIT는 러시아 자본주의와 러시아의 제국주의 강대국 부상에 대한 많은 문서를 발표했다. 다음을 보라. Michael Pröbsting: The Peculiar Features of Russian Imperialism. A Study of Russia’s Monopolies, Capital Export and Super-Exploitation in the Light of Marxist Theory, 10 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/; Russia and China: Neither Capitalist nor Great Powers? A Reply to the PO/CRFI and their Revisionist Whitewashing of Chinese and Russian imperialism, 28 November 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/russia-and-china-neither-capitalist-nor-great-powers-reply-to-po-crfi/; 다음도 보라. 같은 저자: The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, 27 May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism. Another Reply to Our Critics Who Deny Russia’s Imperialist Character, August 2014, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-theory-and-russia/; Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18 March 2014, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 21, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialist-russia/. 이 문제에 관한 여러 다른 RCIT 문서들이 다음의 RCIT 웹사이트 상의 별도 하위 페이지에 있다. https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/

 

[33] 이에 대해서는 다음을 보라. RCIT: Italy: Dockers Prepare for Strike against the Green Pass! Solidarity with this important struggle against the COVID Counterrevolution! 13 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/italian-dockers-strike-against-green-pass/; General Strike in Italy on 11 October: An Important Step Forward! Militant unions of the workers vanguard initiate successful mass protests, 12 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/general-strike-in-italy-on-11-october-an-important-step-forward/ [<10월 11일 이탈리아 총파업: 중요한 일보전진! - 전투적 선봉 노조들, “백신패스 반대, 아파르트헤이트 반대!”> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/general-strike-in-italy-on-11-october-an-important-step-forward/#anker_2]; Green Pass in Italy: International Dockworkers Council Supports the Struggle of the Port Workers! 20 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/idc-supports-struggle-of-italian-port-workers-against-green-pass/; 다음도 보라. Michael Pröbsting: Why Do Some Socialists Refuse to Support the Mass Struggle against the “Green Pass”? PTS/FT, PSTU/LIT, IMT and PCL in the face of the latest stage of the COVID Counterrevolution, 15 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/why-do-some-socialists-refuse-to-support-the-mass-struggle-against-the-green-pass

 

[34] Leon Trotsky: Reply to an Ultimatum (December 1928), in: Leon Trotsky: The Challenge of the Left Opposition (1928-29), Pathfinder Press, New York 1981, p. 364

 

 

 

Über ein weiteres wichtiges Merkmal der Großen Depression der kapitalistischen Weltwirtschaft, ihre wirtschaftlichen Ursachen und die politischen Konsequenzen

 

Ein Essay (mit 5 Abbildungen und 1 Tabelle) von Michael Pröbsting, Internationaler Sekretär der Revolutionär-Kommunistischen Internationalen Tendenz (RCIT), 23. Oktober 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

Anmerkung der Redaktion: Das folgende Dokument enthält 5 Abbildungen. Diese Abbildungen können aus technischen Gründen nur in der PDF-Version gesehen werden.

 

 

 

Im August haben wir vor dem Berufsoptimismus der bürgerlichen Ökonomen (deren Meinung von vielen linken Kommentatoren geteilt wurde) gewarnt, die alle eine Fortsetzung des zyklischen Aufschwungs der Weltwirtschaft vorhersagten. [1] Vor drei Wochen haben wir im Detail ausgeführt, dass die kapitalistische Weltwirtschaft vor einem zweiten Einbruch steht. [2] Inzwischen sind auch viele bürgerliche Ökonomen desillusioniert. Genaugenommen verbreitet sich in diesen Kreisen zunehmend Panik. In einer kürzlich erschienenen Ausgabe des Economist – eines der anerkanntesten Sprachrohre der westlichen Monopolbourgeoisie – zeigt das Cover, unter dem Titel „The shortage economy“, ein Bild mit leeren Regalen in einem Supermarkt. [3]

 

Ein Schlüsselelement der Entwicklung hin zu einem neuen Absturz ist die Energiekrise. Eine solche Krise zeigt sich in allen Teilen der Welt. In China waren die lokalen Behörden in mindestens 20 von 31 Provinzregionen gezwungen, die Energiezufuhr zu rationieren. Laut der South China Morning Post sind „zwei nordöstliche Provinzen Liaoning und Jilin so weit gegangen, die Verkehrsampeln auszuschalten bei gleichzeitiger Beschränkung des Haushaltsbedarfs an Energie, was zu einer Reihe von Stromausfällen an manchen Orten führte. Und in Dongguan, einem Elektronik-Produktionszentrum in Guangdong, sind einige Fabriken gezwungen die Produktion auf 1 bis 2 Tage die Woche zu beschränken. [4] Solche Probleme werden auch weiterhin bestehen. Mitglieder von European Union Chamber of Commerce in China sagen voraus, dass die Energie-Probleme bis März andauern werden. [5]

 

Eine ähnliche Situation besteht in Indien. Kohle macht um die 70% des Elektrizitätsaufkommens des Landes aus. 70 von seinen 135 Kraftwerken, die von Kohle abhängen sehen einer Krise entgegen. Nach Medienberichten haben 20 von ihnen schon die Produktion eingestellt und weitere werden bald folgen. Lokale Behörden in “der Hauptstadt Delhi, in Rajasthan, Punjab, Kerala, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh und Tamil Nadu, um nur einige zu nennen – haben bereits Stromeinbußen oder müssen massive Einbußen im Stromverbrauch ankündigen.“ [6]

 

Japan und Südkorea sind auch mit Energie-Problemen konfrontiert. Korea Electric Power Corporation – Südkoreas größter Energielieferant kündigte erstmals in 8 Jahren Preiserhöhungen an. [7]

 

In Brasilien haben höhere Gas- und Ölpreise – zusammen mit der schlimmsten Dürre in 91 Jahren (eine Folge der kapitalistischen Klimazerstörung) – dazu geführt, dass Wasserkraftwerke keine Energie mehr produzieren können. Eine massive Preiserhöhung ist die Folge in einer profit-orientierten Wirtschaft. Infolgedessen sind in den 12 Monaten bis September - nach offiziellen Zahlen - die Strompreise um 28,8% gestiegen und Gas für den Haushalt um 34,7%. [8]

 

Die alten imperialistischen Länder in Europa und Nordamerika stehen auch vor einer Energiekrise. Britannien hat es bisher am schlimmsten erwischt. Einige der Kraftwerke des Landes haben den Betrieb eingestellt wegen zu hoher Kosten. Vielen Tankstellen fehlt es an Benzin und Schilder mit der Aufschrift: „Leider außer Betrieb“ haben die Schlagzeilen der letzten Wochen bestimmt. Das Problem wurde durch das Fehlen von an die 100.000 Lastwagenlenkern verschlimmert, was die Regierung zwang, Soldaten einzusetzen, um den Kraftstoff zu den Tankstellen zu bringen! [9]

 

Aber die Krise ist auch in anderen Teilen Europas zu fühlen, da auch der Preis für europäisches Gas auf eine Höhe von 100 € anstieg. Bloomberg berichtet: „Energiepreise steigen von den U.S. bis Europa und Asien indem sich die Wirtschaft von der globalen Pandemie erholt und die Menschen zurückkehren in ihre Büros. Europa kämpft, um sich genug Gas und Kohle für den Winter zu sichern, gegen steigende Preise, die einige Industrieriesen von CF Industries zu Yara International ASA und den Chemie-Riesen BASF SE zwingen, Standorte zu schließen oder die Produktion zu drosseln.“ [10]

 

Als Konsequenz sind die europäischen Energie-Speicher nur bis unter 75% ausgelastet, der niedrigste Level für diese Jahreszeit in mehr als einem Jahrzehnt. „Ein kalter Winter in Europa wie auch Asien könnte Europas Speicher bis auf den Grund leeren“ sagt Massimi Di Odoardo von der Forschungsfirma Mackenzie. [11] Aus diesem Grund warnen Experten davor, dass europäische Länder in den Wintermonaten Stromausfälle erfahren könnten. [12]

 

Ein Bericht von Associated Press beschreibt die Lage mit warnenden Worten: „Die Welt steht vor einer Energiekrise – ein starker Engpass bei einigen der Schlüsselmärkte für Erdgas, Öl und anderen Treibstoffen, die die globale Wirtschaft am Laufen halten und Licht und Wärme für unsere Wohnungen bedeuten. Vor dem Winter stehend bedeutet das höhere Stromrechnungen, teurere Produkte und wachsende Sorge, wie das Energie-konsumierende Europa und China sich von der COVID-19 Pandemie erholen sollen.“ [13]

 

Die U.S. stehen ebenso vor Energie-Problemen. Puerto Rico, eine von Washingtons Kolonien, hat es am Schlimmsten erwischt. Die Menschen beklagen wiederholte Stromausfälle, was bereits zu Massenprotesten in der Hauptstadt San Juan geführt hat. [14]

 

 

 

Was hat die Energiekrise ausgelöst?

 

 

 

Viele bürgerliche Kommentatoren benennen spezifische lokale Faktoren, um die Energiekrise zu erklären. In Britannien wird oft auf den Mangel an Lastwagenfahrern hingewiesen, die zumeist Arbeiter aus Osteuropa waren und die nach dem Brexit – als Britannien die EU verlassen hat, aus dem Land gewiesen wurden. Man muss aber darauf hinweisen, dass es auch in anderen europäischen Ländern an Lastwagenfahrern mangelt, da viele von ihnen letztes Jahr wegen der Pandemie entlassen worden sind.

 

In China berufen sich Kommentatoren auf die Tatsache, dass die Provinz-Behörden die Strompreise um nicht mehr als 10% erhöhen dürfen. (Das wurde vor einigen Tagen auf 20% erhöht.) Gleichzeitig ist der Preis für Kohle nicht auf dieselbe Art reguliert und erreichte vor kurzem Rekordhöhen. Ergebnis davon ist, dass Konzerne nicht gewillt sind, andere Energie zu produzieren, da es einfach nicht profitabel ist. Das führt zu einer schwierigen Lage, da Kohle die Hauptenergiequelle in China darstellt, die 68,5% des Energiebedarfs 2020 deckt. [15]

 

Alle diese lokalen Faktoren spielen sicherlich eine Rolle als Ursachen der Energiekrise. Andrerseits jedoch liegt es auf der Hand, dass wenn dieselben Probleme zur selben Zeit in vielen verschiedenen Ländern auftauchen, es grundlegende globale Ursachen für diese Entwicklung geben muss.

 

Deshalb weisen andere Kommentatoren zurecht auf globale Entwicklungen hin. Wie oben erwähnt, führt der Mangel an (migrantischen) Lastwagenfahrern in Europa – es wird berichtet, dass über 500.000 Lenker fehlen – zu Transportproblemen. Das ist in der Tat ein wichtiger Faktor. Auf der ganzen Welt haben die kapitalistischen Regierungen auf dieselbe chauvinistische Weise auf die Pandemie reagiert, indem sie seit Frühjahr 2020 eine bonapartistische Politik gegen die eigene Bevölkerung und eine chauvinistische Politik gegenüber Migranten und anderen Ländern praktizierten. Darum charakterisiert RCIT, nebenbei bemerkt, die Politik der COVID-19-Konterrevolution als chauvinistischen Staatsbonapartismus. [16]

 

Ein anderer Faktor, der oft erwähnt wird, ist der massive Anstieg der Energiepreise. U.S. Rohöl liegt bei über $83 per Barrel, der höchste Stand seit 7 Jahren, während der internationale Wert bei $85 liegt. Die Preise für Erdgas sind massiv gestiegen, was Europa besonders hart trifft, da es 90% seines Bedarfs importiert (vor allem aus Russland). Seit Jahresbeginn sind die Preise um das Fünffache angestiegen – von 19 € per Megawatt auf nahezu 100 €.

 

Alle diese Faktoren spielen eine Rolle bei der Erklärung der Energiekrise. Tatsächlich zeigen sie die anarchische Natur des Kapitalismus. Dieses System ist von Profitinteressen der Kapitalisten und den Machtinteressen der regierenden politischen Elite getrieben. Wenn es hilft, ihre politische Macht in Zeiten tiefer Krisen zu festigen, werden diese Regierungen zu brutalen Chauvinisten und werfen migrantische Arbeiter einfach aus dem Land. Dasselbe geschieht nebenbei auch seitens des stalinistisch-kapitalistischen Regime in China und der rechten Modi-Regierung in Indien. Beide Regimes verbannten binnen wenigen Wochen die „migrantischen“ Arbeiter – die aus ländlichen Gegenden kamen – aus den Städten.

 

Ähnlich dramatisch trifft die autoritäre staats-bonapartistische Antwort auf die Pandemie mit ihrer notorischen Lockdown-Politik den Transportsektor. Das chinesische Regime z.B. schloss einfach immer wieder wegen einer weniger Corona-Fälle wichtigste Handelshäfen. Das hat dazu geführt, und setzt sich auch weiterhin fort, zu massiven globalen Lieferketten-Unterbrechungen. „Im Juni unterbrachen Covid-Infektionen die Tätigkeit der Häfen von Shenzhen und Guangzhou in China. Globale Container Staus, einschließlich des Rückstaus vom Juni-Stop in Shenzhen hat zu einem monatelangen Überbuchen von Ladeplätzen geführt und die Transportkosten in die Höhe getrieben. „Es kostet nun fast 10mal so viel, einen Container von Asien zu U.S. Westküste zu senden, als vor der Pandemie“, berichtete der globale Frachtdaten-Provider „Freight Waves“. Baltic Dry Index, ein Preisindex für das weltweite Verschiffen von Hauptfrachtgütern (hauptsächlich Kohle, Eisenerz und Getreide) auf Standardrouten ist im August auf ein 11-faches Jahreshoch gestiegen. [17] Abbildung 1 zeigt den massiven Anstieg von Warenpreisen und Transportkosten seit dem Beginn der Rezession.

 

 

 

Abbildung 1. Warenpreisen und Transportkosten, Januar 2018 bis September 2021 [18]

 

 

 

 

 

Ähnlich sehen wir die anarchische Natur des Kapitalismus in der Zerstörung der globalen Transportketten. Während leere Container sich an der U.S. Westküste aufreihen, suchen asiatische Konzerne vergebens nach leeren Containern, um ihre Waren zu exportieren. Als Ergebnis gehen die Warenlagerbestände zurück, wie Abbildung 2 zeigt.

 

 

 

Abbildung 2. Neuerungen im Produktionssektor in den U.S., Deutschland und Südkorea, Januar 2019 bis September 2021 [19]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eine sozialistische Gesellschaft würde die Wirtschaft weltweit planen und koordinieren. Ihre Entscheidungen würden weder von den Profitinteressen der Konzerne geleitet werden noch von den nationalistischen Interessen der Nationalstaaten, sondern von den globalen Bedürfnissen der Weltbevölkerung. Eine solche Gesellschaft würde Container dorthin schicken, wo sie gebraucht werden, würde die Kapazitäten zur Energieproduktion ausweiten, wenn das benötigt würde und würde „fremde“ Arbeiter gleich behandeln wie „inländische“ Arbeiter.

 

 

 

Was sind die tieferen Gründe für die Energiekrise?

 

 

 

Jedoch müssen wir noch weiter gehen, um die Gründe für die Energiekrise zu verstehen. Wenn man von der einfachen Logik der Vertreter des „freien Marktes“ ausgeht, ist es schwierig zu verstehen, warum es nicht genug Energie gibt, um sie zu liefern, wenn sie gebraucht wird. Erinnern wir uns – wir haben alle gelernt, dass der Markt aufgrund von Angebot und Nachfrage funktioniert. Also offensichtlich gibt es Bedarf an Energie - aber warum fehlt das Angebot?!

 

Der tiefere Grund für die Energiekrise ist der allgemeine und langanhaltende Niedergang des Kapitalismus, der in den tendenziellen Fall der Profitrate resultiert. Das bedeutet im Wesentlichen, dass der Mehrwert auf lange Sicht kleiner wird, verglichen mit dem Kapital, das in die Produktion investiert wird (in Maschinen, Rohmaterialien, usw. ebenso wie in Lohnkosten). Demzufolge wird der Mehrwert, der weiterhin für die Reproduktion des Kapitals investiert werden kann, relativ kleiner und kleiner. Das führt unvermeidlich zu Störungen und Krisen und einem historischen Niedergang, da es weniger und weniger profitabel wird für Kapitalisten, in die Erweiterung der Produktion zu investieren.

 

Da wir haben diesen Gegenstand in zahlreichen Arbeiten ausgeführt haben, werden wir dies hier nicht weiter ausführen. [20] Um einen kurzen empirischen Überblick zu geben, zeigen wir zwei Abbildungen, die des marxistische Ökonomen Michael Roberts veröffentlicht hat. Abbildung 3 zeigt den Verlauf der Profitrate in den alten imperialistischen Staaten (U.S., Japan, Deutschland, Frankreich, UK, Italien und Kanada) von 1950 bis 2017. Abbildung 4 zeigt die Entwicklung der globalen Unternehmens-Profite von 1997 bis 2019. Beide Abbildungen bestätigen die marxistische These vom tendenziellen Fall der Profitrate.

 

 

 

Abbildung 3. Profitrate in den G7 Staaten 1950 - 2017 [21]

 

 

 

 

 

Abbildung 4. Weltweite Unternehmensgewinne, jährlicher Zuwachs 1997-2019 [22]

 

 

 

 

 

Solch ein Niedergang der Profitrate hat umgekehrt einen tendenziellen Fall der Kapitalakkumulation zur Folge. Das bedeutet, dass die Wachstumsdynamik der Investitionen, also die Expansion des Kapitalstocks, ebenso abnimmt. Um ein Beispiel zu nennen: in den USA sind die nicht für Wohnzwecke vorgesehene Netto-Anlageinvestitionen, gemessen als Anteil am jährlichen Brutto-Inlandsprodukt in den letzten Jahrzehnten um beinahe die Hälfte gefallen – von 4,1% in den 1970er und 1980er Jahren auf 2,5% in den 2010er Jahren. [23]

 

Eine andere Zahl, die dieselbe Dynamik aufzeigt, ist die historische Entwicklung der Netto-Investition als Anteil am Kapitalstock. Wie wir in Abbildung 5 sehen, ist dieser Anteil in den USA seit langer Zeit gefallen – ein Prozess „der die Produktionskapazität der Wirtschaft begrenzt“ wie der offizielle Economic Report of the President des White House besorgt in seiner Ausgabe von 2018 feststellt.

 

 

 

Abbildung 5. Netto-Investition als Anteil am Kapitalstock in den USA, 1945-2016 [24]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diese Tendenz wird auch von einer kürzlich von The Economist veröffentlichten Studie bestätigt, die einen langfristigen Niedergang der Investitionen der 500 größten Unternehmen in Europa und den U.S. bestätigen. Während das jährliche Wachstum der Investitionsausgaben für längerfristige Anlagegüter von 2001-10 8,7% betrug, ging es von 2010-19 auf 4,5% zurück, also fast um die Hälfte. [25]

 

Diese Tendenz der niedergehenden Zuwachsdynamik von Investment trifft insbesondere im Energiesektor zu. Ein Analytiker von Goldman Sachs sagt pointiert: „Gas, Öl, Kohle, Metalle, Bergbau – die alte Wirtschaft ist auffallend unterfinanziert. Wir nennen es die Rache der alten Wirtschaft. Niedere Rendite führt dazu, das Kapital von der alten Ökonomie weg in die neue Wirtschaft fließt.“ [26]

 

In anderen Worten, die Kapitalisten denken, sie können in diesen Sektoren nicht genug Profit machen und ihre Investitionen lohnen sich nicht. Also stecken sie ihr Geld in andere Sektoren oder spekulieren damit.

 

Sicherlich, einige Regierungen haben versucht, den sogenannten “Grüne Energie”-Sektor mit Finanzhilfen, Steuererleichterungen usw. zu fördern. Aber die Investitionen in diese Sektoren sind begrenzt, da – auch hier - Kapitalisten nur in einem solchen Ausmaß investieren, als sie ausreichend Profit erwarten können. Und da kapitalistische Regierungen – vor allem in den imperialistischen Staaten – unter einer historisch nie dagewesenen hohen und sich erhöhenden Schuldenlast leiden, ist der Spielraum für solche staats-kapitalistischen Interventionen als Antrieb für „grüne Energie“ begrenzt. (siehe Tabelle 1)

 

 

 

Tab. 1. Staatsverschuldung der Regierungen, 2016 bis 2021 (Prozent des BIP) [27]

 

Country                                               2016      2017      2018      2019       2020

 

Canada                                                91.7        88.8        88.8        86.8        117.5

 

France                                                  98.0        98.3        98.0        97.6        115.1

 

Germany                                             69.3        65.0        61.6        59.2        69.1

 

Italy                                                       134.8     134.1     134.4     134.6      155.8

 

Japan                                                    232.5     231.4     232.5     235.4      254.1

 

United  Kingdom                               86.8        86.3        85.8        85.2        104.5

 

United  States                                    106.9     106.0     107.1     108.5      133.9

 

China                                                    48.2        51.7        53.8        57.1        66.3

 

India                                                     68.9        69.7        70.4        74.1        89.6

 

Russian Federation                           14.8        14.3        13.6        13.8        19.3

 

Latin America                                    56.4        61.1        67.4        68.3        78.1

 

Saudi Arabia                                      13.1        17.2        19.0        22.8        32.5

 

South Africa                                       47.1        48.6        51.6        56.3        69.4

 

World                                                   83.2        82.0        82.3        83.6        98.6

 

 

 

Fügen wir hinzu, dass – wie allgemein bekannt – dies auch desaströse Folgen für das Klima hat, was wiederum massiv die Wirtschaft trifft (z.B. Hitzewellen, Dürre, ebenso wie harte Winter, erhöhen die Energiekosten; Überschwemmungen, Orkane usw., verursacht große soziale und wirtschaftliche Schäden).

 

 

 

Wirtschaftliche und politische Folgen des “Dark Winter”

 

 

 

Wir schließen dieses Essay, indem wir die wichtigsten wirtschaftlichen und politischen Folgen und die sich daraus folgenden Aufgaben für RevolutionärInnen zusammenfassen.

 

1. Erstens liegt es auf der Hand, dass die Energiekrise schwere Konsequenzen auf die kapitalistische Weltwirtschaft haben wird. Man braucht nicht Einstein zu sein, um zu begreifen, dass wiederholte Stromausfälle und steigende Preise die Produktion einschränken werden. Das wird umso mehr der Fall sein, als - wie wir in unseren letzten Artikeln ausgeführt haben - die Energiekrise nicht ein isoliertes Phänomen ist, sondern sich zusammen mit anderen Symptomen der kapitalistischen Krise (steigende Schuldenlast, Transportkrise usw.) entwickelt. Kurz gesagt: wir wiederholen unsere Warnung, dass die kapitalistische Weltwirtschaft in der Großen Depression feststeckt, die im Herbst 2019 begonnen hat. Nach dem ersten Einbruch im Frühling 2020 steht nun ein weiterer bevor.

 

2. Ein zweiter Einbruch wird außerdem dramatische politische Konsequenzen nach sich ziehen. Es ist wahrscheinlich, dass solch eine Energiekrise einen „Dark Winter“ verursachen wird. Sicher, es ist nur auf der Nordhalbkugel Winter, aber eine Hitzewelle auf der Südhälfte wird ebenfalls starke negative Wirkungen auf die Energiekrise haben, also auch zu Stromausfällen und Preissteigerungen führen. Die Menschen werden in kalten (oder sehr heißen) Häusern leben müssen, TV, Internet und Radio werden unterbrochen sein, … kurz: die Krise wird sofortige und drastische Auswirkungen nicht nur auf die Unternehmen, sondern auch auf die Bevölkerungen haben. In unserem kürzlich veröffentlichten RCIT Manifesto charakterisieren wir den gegenwärtigen Zustand der bürgerlichen Klassengesellschaft als „Katastrophenkapitalismus". ^[28] Die laufenden Ereignisse sind eine starke Bestätigung unserer Einschätzung!

 

3. Das alles wird unvermeidlich zu massiven politischen Krisen in vielen Ländern führen. Es wird die Glaubwürdigkeit der Regierungen untergraben. Es wird die Menschen auf die Straßen zu Massenprotesten treiben. Daher ist es wahrscheinlich, dass solch ein „Dark Winter“ zu vor-revolutionären und revolutionären Situationen in einigen Ländern führen wird.

 

4. Angesichts solcher für sie gefährlichen Entwicklungen werden die kapitalistischen Regierungen alles tun, was möglich ist, um solche Unruhen zu verhindern und um die öffentliche Aufmerksamkeit abzulenken. Um das zu erreichen, gibt es mehrere Möglichkeiten. Vorerst kann man eine neue COVID-Notlage erklären und neue Lockdowns bzw. andere Restriktionen verhängen. Natürlich ist der wahre Zweck solcher Maßnahmen nicht, die Bevölkerung vor der Pandemie zu schützen, sondern sie in einer Situation, die sehr gefährlich ist für Regierungen, unter Kontrolle zu halten. Das war, wie wir wiederholt schon gezeigt haben, auch der wahre Zweck der Lockdown-Politik im Frühjahr 2020 als viele Regierungen – von China bis Frankreich und Chile – seit Sommer 2019 mit Volksaufständen konfrontiert waren. [29]

 

5. Weiters, zusätzlich zur Pandemie, werden Regierungen versuchen, öffentliche Aufmerksamkeit abzulenken, indem sie Spannungen mit anderen Staaten provozieren. Wie die RCIT in mehreren Dokumenten ausgeführt hat, sind zahlreiche Regionen der Welt bereits von Spannungen zwischen kapitalistischen Staaten gekennzeichnet. In den vergangenen Jahren haben wir eine massive Zunahme der Rivalitäten zwischen den imperialistischen Großmächten gesehen. [30] Der wichtigste dieser Konflikte ist der Kalte Krieg zwischen den imperialistischen Großmächten U.S. und China. [31] Ähnlich haben sich die Spannungen zwischen den westlichen Mächten und Russland verstärkt. [32] Fügt man noch die Spannungen – um nur einige zu nennen – im Nahen Osten dazu (z.B. Israel – Iran; Algerien – Marokko; Türkei – Syrien), in Ostafrika (z.B. Ägypten – Sudan – Äthiopien), im südlichen Kaukasus wo es gerade kürzlich wieder zu einem Krieg zwischen Armenien und Aserbaidschan gekommen ist, oder in Süd-Asien (z.B. China - Indien; Indien – Pakistan; Tadschikistan – Afghanistan). Schließlich verstärken solche Bedingungen von Krisen und Chaos die Voraussetzungen für Staatsstreiche und Bürgerkriege (wie z.B. in Tunesien, Äthiopien, Sudan, Mali, Guinea).

 

 

 

Revolutionäre Strategie

 

 

 

6. Zusammenfassend, der „Dark Winter“ schafft die Bedingung für eine neue Phase von Krieg und Revolution. Die RCIT ruft alle authentischen RevolutionärInnen auf, sich für eine solche Zeit vorzubereiten! Das bedeutet einerseits, eine unbeugsame Linie des revolutionären Kampfes zu vertreten. RevolutionärInnen müssen allen wirtschaftlichen und autoritären Angriffen entgegentreten, die die herrschende Klasse unter dem Deckmantel des „Dark Winter“ in Gang setzen wird und die Methoden der Massenkämpfe und Selbstorganisation der ArbeiterInnen und Unterdrückten unterstützen. MarxistInnen müssen die COVID-Konterrevolution ablehnen und dagegen und gegen alle damit verbundenen Angriffe (wie die Angriffe auf demokratische Grundrechte, Lockdowns, Überwachung, Zwangsimpfungen, usw.) ankämpfen. Sie haben Streiks und Demonstrationen gegen solche Angriffe zu unterstützen (wie z.B. in Italien und Frankreich). [1][33] Sie müssen gegen alle Formen von Militarismus und Chauvinismus auftreten. Angesichts inner-imperialistischer Konflikte haben sie die Position des Revolutionären Defätismus einzunehmen, d.h. sich gegen beide Seiten zu stellen und zu versuchen solche Konflikte auszunützen, um die imperialistischen Herrscher auf beiden Seiten zu schwächen und zu stürzen. Dasselbe Vorgehen ist bei reaktionären Konflikten zwischen halb-kolonialen kapitalistischen Staaten anzuwenden. In Kriegen zwischen einem Unterdrücker und einem unterdrückten Volk oder im Fall eines reaktionären Staatsstreichs oder Bürgerkriegs, haben Revolutionäre die Seite der Unterdrückten einzunehmen (ohne politische Unterstützung für eine nicht-revolutionäre Führung). Weiters sollten Revolutionäre praktisch eingreifen – oder falls möglich, eine führende Rolle spielen – bei Volks-Protesten gegen die Angriffe der herrschenden Klasse, die mit dem „Dark Winter“ zusammenhängen. Kurz gesagt, die laufende Krise des Kapitalismus erfordert die Aufgabe, den „Dark Winter“ für die Volksmassen in einen „Dark Winter“ für die kapitalistische herrschende Klasse umzuwandeln.

 

7. Revolutionäre müssen die politische und die praktische Intervention in solchen Massenkämpfen mit einem entschlossenen Programm für die sozialistische Revolution verbinden. Solch ein Programm erfordert die Unterstützung von Formen des Massenkampfes – Massendemonstrationen, Streiks, Generalstreik, usw. – ebenso wie Formen der Selbstorganisation des Massen – Aktionsräte, Volksversammlungen, bewaffnete Selbstverteidigungs-Einheiten, usw. MarxistInnen haben die Notwendigkeit zu erklären, dass die Kämpfe heute mit der strategischen Aufgabe, die Macht der herrschenden Klasse zu brechen, zu verbinden sind (Arbeiterkontrolle in Unternehmen, Volksräte und Milizen, Arbeiter- und Volks-Regierungen). Der Katastrophenkapitalismus muss überwunden werden – nicht nur in einem Land, sondern weltweit. Die gegenwärtigen Ereignisse sind eine deutliche Demonstration, dass die brennenden Probleme der Menschheit nicht nur in einem Land gelöst werden können. Sie können nur in einem globalen Maßstab angegangen werden, durch einen weltweiten Zusammenschluss von Arbeiter- und Bauern-Republiken, die einen internationalen Plan für Produktion, Transport, Begrenzung und Überwindung des Klimawechsels usw. erarbeiten und umsetzen.

 

8. Trotzki stellte einmal fest: „Die große historische Stärke der (linken) Opposition, trotz ihrer scheinbaren Schwäche, liegt in der Tatsache, dass sie ihre Finger an den Puls der historischen Prozesse legt, dass sie klar die Dynamik der Klassenkämpfe vorwegnimmt und dass sie die Zukunft vorhersieht und sich bewusst darauf vorbereitet.“ [34] Das ist tatsächlich die Aufgabe von Revolutionären heute und die RCIT – so wie andere authentische RevolutionärInnen – hat schon immer auf der Grundlage einer solchen Perspektive agiert. Die Aufgabe jetzt ist unsere programmatische Stärke für die Gründung einer Revolutionäre Weltpartei zu nützen! Wir wiederholen die Schlussfolgerungen unseres RCIT Manifestes: Wenn Du mit unseren Zielen übereinstimmst, schließ dich uns an! Vorwärts im Kampf für die sozialistische Weltrevolution! Brennen wir den Katastrophenkapitalismus mit dem Feuer der Revolution nieder!

 

 

 

 

[1] Siehe Kapitel II in RCIT: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22. August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/

 

[2] Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/; vom selben Autor: The Real Estate Bubble in Capitalist China. Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic make global investors tremble and for good reasons, 6. Oktober 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/the-real-estate-bubble-in-capitalist-china/

 

[3] The Economist, 9.–15. Oktober 2021

 

[4] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis: why is it happening, how bad is it, and what if it continues into the freezing winter months? 10. Oktober 2021, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3151710/chinas-power-crisis-why-it-happening-how-bad-it-and-what-if?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[5] Keith Bradsher: China’s Power Problems Expose a Strategic Weakness, 13. Oktober 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/13/business/china-electricity-shortage.html

 

[6] Anil Sharma: India faces a crisis as power shortage worsens, 13. Oktober 2021, https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/india-faces-a-crisis-as-power-shortage-worsens/

 

[7] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4. Oktober 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[8] David Biller and Diane Jeantet: Brazil’s inflation hits double digits, punishing the poor, Associated Press, October 8, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/business-caribbean-brazil-rio-de-janeiro-prices-2b300ff78c5ae0003903a036b155a319

 

[9] James Ludden: UK government clears army to begin petrol deliveries from Monday, Bloomberg, 1. Oktober 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/uk-government-clears-army-to-begin-petrol-deliveries-from-monday

 

[10] Anna Shiryaevskaya, Vanessa Dezem and Elena Mazneva: Energy crunch: Natural gas prices in Europe hit record 100 euros, Bloomberg, 1. Oktober 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/energy-crunch-natural-gas-prices-in-europe-hit-record-100-euro

 

[11] David Mchugh, Colleen Barry, Joe Mcdonald and Tatiana Pollastri: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches, 19.10.2021, https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-business-russia-health-70b97e36da53f62eba588b44f2b394bc

 

[12] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4. Oktober 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[13] David Mchugh et al: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches

 

[14] Sam Carliner: Protests Erupt in Puerto Rico to Fight a Worsening Energy Crisis, Left Voice, 17. Okrober 2021, https://www.leftvoice.org/protests-erupt-in-puerto-rico-to-fight-a-worsening-energy-crisis/

 

[15] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis

 

[16] RCIT hat die COVID-19 Konterrevolution von Anfang an intensiv analysiert. Beginnend am 2. Februar 2020 haben wir fast 100 Pamphlete, Essays, Artikel und Statements sowie ein Buch veröffentlicht, die alle auf einer speziellen Unterseite unserer Website gesammelt sind: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. Im besonderen weisen wir auf unser RCIT Manifesto hin: COVID-19: A Cover for a Major Global Counterrevolutionary Offensive. We are at a turning point in the world situation as the ruling classes provoke a war-like atmosphere in order to legitimize the build-up of chauvinist state-bonapartist regimes, 21. März 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-a-cover-for-a-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/. Siehe auch ein neues RCIT Manifesto: “Green Pass” & Compulsory Vaccinations: A New Stage in the COVID Counterrevolution. Down with the chauvinist-bonapartist police & surveillance state – defend democratic rights! No to health policy in the service of the capitalist monopolies – expand the public health sector under workers and popular control! 29. Juli 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/; Ebenso verweisen wir auf unser Buch von Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/. Siehe auch unseren allererster Artikel zu diesem Thema von Almedina Gunić: Coronavirus: "I am not a Virus"... but WE will be the Cure! The chauvinist campaign behind the “Wuhan Coronavirus” hysteria and the revolutionary answer, 2. Februar 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/wuhan-virus/; Michael Pröbsting: The Second Wave of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution. On the ruling class strategy in the current conjuncture, its inner contradictions and the perspectives of the workers and popular resistance, 20. Juli 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-second-wave-of-the-covid-19-counterrevolution/; vom selben Autor: The Police and Surveillance State in the Post-Lockdown Phase. A global review of the ruling class’s plans of expanding the bonapartist state machinery amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 21. Mai 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/police-and-surveillance-state-in-post-lockdown-phase/; COVID-19: The Great Barrington Declaration is indeed Great! Numerous medical scientists protest against the reactionary lockdown policy, 11. Oktober 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-the-great-barrington-declaration-is-indeed-great/; COVID-19: The Current and Historical Roots of Bourgeois Lockdown “Socialism”. Police State and Universal Basic Income are key elements of the new version of reformist “War Socialism” of 1914, 19. Dezember 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/covid-19-the-current-and-historical-roots-of-bourgeois-lockdown-socialism/. Siehe auch eine Anzahl von spanisch-sprachigen Artikeln unserer argentinischen GenossInnen wie z.B.: Juan Giglio: La izquierda de la "Big Pharma", dejó de defender las libertades, 1.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/la-izquierda-de-la-big-pharma-dejo-de.html; Juan Giglio: ¿Por qué la izquierda no cuestiona las políticas de la OMS? 8.9.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/por-que-la-izquierda-no-cuestiona-las.html

 

[17] Pierre Briançon: A Chinese Port Partially Closed Because of a Covid Infection. What to Know, 13. August 2021, https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-ningbo-zhoushan-meishan-port-closure-51628879754

 

[18] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21. September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), S. 11

 

[19] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21. September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), S. 10

 

[20] Siehe dazu z. B. Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, Chapter I, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/; vom selben Autor: The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, RCIT Pamphlet, Mai 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; World Perspectives 2018: A World Pregnant with Wars and Popular Uprisings. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, RCIT Books, Vienna 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2018/; The Great Robbery of the South. Continuity and Changes in the Super-Exploitation of the Semi-Colonial World by Monopoly Capital. Consequences for the Marxist Theory of Imperialism, RCIT Books, Vienna 2013, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/great-robbery-of-the-south/; World economy – heading to a new upswing? (2009), in: Fifth International, Volume 3, No. 3, Autumn 2009, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-economy-crisis-2009/; Imperialism, Globalization and the Decline of Capitalism (2008), in: Richard Brenner, Michael Pröbsting, Keith Spencer: The Credit Crunch - A Marxist Analysis, London 2008, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-and-globalization/; RCIT: Advancing Counterrevolution and Acceleration of Class Contradictions Mark the Opening of a New Political Phase. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries (January 2016), Chapter II and III, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 46, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2016/.

 

[21] Michael Roberts: Profitability, investment and the pandemic, 17. Mai 2020, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2020/05/17/profitability-investment-and-the-pandemic/

 

[22] Ibid

 

[23] Siehe z.B. Thomas J. Duesterberg, Donald A. Norman: Why Is Capital Investment Consistently Weak in the 21st Century U.S. Economy, The Aspen Institute, April 2014, pp. 4-7; Oren Cass: We’re Just Speculating Here… The Rise of Wall Street and the Fall of American Investment, 25. März 2021, https://americancompass.org/essays/speculating-wall-street-investment/

 

[24] Economic Report of the President, February 2018, Washington, S. 399

 

[25] The Economist: Fossil fuels. Can’t live without them. 9. Oktober 2021, S. 71

 

[26] Zitiert in Kaelyn Forde: China power cuts, UK petrol woes: Why is there an energy crunch? 29. September 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/29/china-power-cuts-uk-petrol-woes-why-is-there-an-energy-crunch

 

[27] IMF: Fiscal Monitor. Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, October 2021, Washington, S. 5

 

[28] RCIT: The Fire of Revolution Will Burn Down Catastrophic Capitalism! Manifesto for the Liberation Struggle of the Workers and Oppressed Document adopted by the III. Congress of the RCIT, April 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit-fire-manifesto-2021/

 

[29] For an overview and a characterization of these events see, in addition the relevant statements on the individual countries, Michael Pröbsting: Are We Nearing a New “68 Moment”? A massive upsurge of global class struggle in the midst of a dramatic shift in the world situation 22. Oktober 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/are-we-nearing-a-new-68-moment/

 

[30] RCIT hat sich bei zahlreichen Gelegenheiten mit der Rivalität der Großmächte untereinander auseinandergesetzt. Siehe dazu zB. das RCIT Dokument: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22. August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; ebenso: RCIT: The Meaning of the AUKUS Pact. The U.S. escalates the inter-imperialist Cold War against China and provokes the EU, 18, September 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/; Russia Fires Warning Shots against UK Warship in the Black Sea. Down with Cold Warmongering! No support for any imperialist Great Power – neither UK, US nor Russia! 24. Juni 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/; siehe auch die folgenden 2 Broschüren von Michael Pröbsting: “A Really Good Quarrel”. US-China Alaska Meeting: The Inter-Imperialist Cold War Continues, 23. März 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10. Juli 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/; mehrere Werke zu diesem Thema auf diesen Unterseiten: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ und https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

 

[31] RCIT hat zahlreiche Dokumente zum Kapitalismus in China und seine Verwandlung in eine Großmacht veröffentlicht. Siehe dazu z.B. unser Buch von Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/. Siehe dazu einen Essay vom selben Autor veröffentlicht in der 2. Auflage der Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (edited by Immanuel Ness and Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; How is it possible that some Marxists still Doubt that China has Become Capitalist? (A Critique of the PTS/FT), An analysis of the capitalist character of China’s State-Owned Enterprises and its political consequences, 18. September 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Unable to See the Wood for the Trees (PTS/FT and China). Eclectic empiricism and the failure of the PTS/FT to recognize the imperialist character of China, 13. August 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/.

 

Siehe viele weitere RCIT Dokumente auf einer Unterseite von RCIT’s Website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.

 

[32] RCIT hat zahlreiche Dokumente über Kapitalismus in Russland und seinen Aufstieg zu einer imperialistischen Großmacht veröffentlicht. Siehe dazu z.B. einige Broschüren von Michael Pröbsting: The Peculiar Features of Russian Imperialism. A Study of Russia’s Monopolies, Capital Export and Super-Exploitation in the Light of Marxist Theory, 10. August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/; Russia and China: Neither Capitalist nor Great Powers? A Reply to the PO/CRFI and their Revisionist Whitewashing of Chinese and Russian imperialism, 28. November 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/russia-and-china-neither-capitalist-nor-great-powers-reply-to-po-crfi/; The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, 27. Mai 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism. Another Reply to Our Critics Who Deny Russia’s Imperialist Character, August 2014, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-theory-and-russia/; Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18. März 2014, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 21, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialist-russia/. Siehe auch zahlreiche weitere Dokumente zu diesem Thema auf einer speziellen Unterseite unserer Website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/

 

[33] Siehe dazu z.B. RCIT: Italy: Dockers Prepare for Strike against the Green Pass! Solidarity with this important struggle against the COVID Counterrevolution! 13. Oktober 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/italian-dockers-strike-against-green-pass/; General Strike in Italy on 11 October: An Important Step Forward! Militant unions of the workers vanguard initiate successful mass protests, 12. Oktober 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/general-strike-in-italy-on-11-october-an-important-step-forward/; Green Pass in Italy: International Dockworkers Council Supports the Struggle of the Port Workers! 20. Oktober 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/idc-supports-struggle-of-italian-port-workers-against-green-pass/; siehe auch Michael Pröbsting: Why Do Some Socialists Refuse to Support the Mass Struggle against the “Green Pass”? PTS/FT, PSTU/LIT, IMT and PCL in the face of the latest stage of the COVID Counterrevolution, 15. Oktober 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/why-do-some-socialists-refuse-to-support-the-mass-struggle-against-the-green-pass

 

[34] Leon Trotsky: Reply to an Ultimatum (December 1928), in: Leon Trotsky: The Challenge of the Left Opposition (1928-29), Pathfinder Press, New York 1981, S. 364