Notes on historical analogies for the current NATO-Russia conflict

 

By Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 15 February 2022, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

In this turbulent and difficult time, we breathe the explosive air of evolving world history. Only people without any sense for world politics or history (or both) can ignore the fateful character of the current period. There can be no doubt that the current period resembles the years before 1914.

 

Several imperialist Great Powers – the U.S., China, EU, Russia, and Japan – are engaged in bitter rivalry with each trying to expand their sphere of influence at the cost of others. The conflicts between the U.S. and China in the Asian-Pacific region [1], between NATO and Russia in Eastern Europe [2] are currently the most important areas of crisis in the inter-imperialist rivalry.

 

The intention of our analogy with 1914 is not to suggest that World War III will start next month. This seems rather unlikely to us. But one must be blind not to recognize the fundamental developments where the interests of the Great Power clash with increasing pace and intensity. And everyone with an inch of historical awareness senses that what we are experiencing in these years resembles events like the confrontations between France and Germany in the two “Moroccan Crises” (in 1905-06 resp. 1911) or the Balkan wars in 1912-13. It is clear that if the working class does not succeed in overthrowing the ruling class of the imperialist Great Powers, humanity is drifting into a devastating World War. Such an event will kill masses of people and, at the same time, bring the global capitalist order to the brink of collapse.

 

At this place we do not want to speculate about the possible timeframe until such an event – something which is impossible anyway as it depends on numerous factors, most importantly the course of the liberation struggle of the workers and oppressed peoples. Neither will we discuss here the strength and weaknesses of each imperialist power.

 

The purpose of this brief article is rather to discuss, with the help of historical analogies, the important difference between the Marxists’ and the opportunists’ understanding of the nature of the Great Powers rivalry in the current period.

 

The Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT) has elaborated in a number of works its analysis of the Great Power rivalry. [3] We recognize the decay of Western imperialism – first and foremost of the long-time hegemon, the U.S. – as well as the emergence of China [4] and Russia as new imperialist powers. [5] We therefore consider the conflict between these powers – respectively between their proxies – as thoroughly reactionary. Consequently, socialists must not lend support to any side in such conflict between Great Powers or their proxies. In all such conflicts, the RCIT advocates a program of revolutionary defeatism, i.e. working towards the defeat of the respective governments and the transformation of this conflict into a revolutionary crisis at home. [6]

 

We therefore think – looking for a historical analogy – that the current world situation resembles to a certain degree the years before 1914, i.e. before the beginning World War I.

 

 

 

Do China and Russia today have a similar character like in 1939?

 

 

 

In contrast, most Stalinists, Bolivarians, left-reformists, and also a number of pseudo-Trotskyists reject such an understanding of the world situation. They consider China and Russia not as imperialist powers. Many believe that China would be some kind of “socialist” or (deformed) “workers state”. Others claim that China and Russia are capitalist but not imperialist powers. But in one way or another, they all agree in considering these two Great Powers as something qualitatively different, weaker, less reactionary than their Western rivals. [7]

 

As a consequence, these opportunist parties join the camp of China and Russia – openly or concealed – in the conflict between the Great Powers. Hence, their historical analogy – consciously or unconsciously – is not 1914 but rather 1939.

 

It is common knowledge that the constellation of World War II differed from the previous one in a way that by 1939 there existed the Soviet Union, i.e. a big workers state (albeit one which was already dominated by the dictatorship of the Stalinist bureaucracy). Likewise, there was a major war going on in East Asia, where the Chinese people fought against the Japanese invaders.

 

Leon Trotsky and the Fourth International concluded from this, that socialists had to deploy a dual tactic. In the conflict between imperialist powers (Britain, France and later the U.S. versus Germany, Italy and later Japan), socialists could not support either side and had to take a defeatist position against all Great Powers. However, in the war between Germany and the USSR respectively between Japan and China, socialists had to defend the USSR resp. China without lending any political support to its non-revolutionary leadership. [8]

 

It is evident that the current world situation has much more similarities with the 1914 analogy than with 1939. Russia resp. the USSR was a degenerated workers state at that time. China was a capitalist semi-colony. Today, both are imperialist powers.

 

However, the opportunist friends of Moscow and Beijing ignore this. They rather whitewash the class character of China and Russia in order to legitimize joining the imperialist camp of the Eastern Great Powers.

 

There are also those socialists who instinctively oppose supporting either camp but lack a clear theoretical basis as they refuse to recognize the imperialist character of China and Russia. These comrades should, in our opinion, rethink this issue because a failure in theory can have dangerous consequences in tactics in the future. For Marxists, a consistent theory is the precondition for a consistent program. Lacking the first can result in opportunism and social-imperialism in the field of strategy and tactics.

 

It is urgent for socialists to clarify their theory and program. Those who agree in opposing all imperialist powers must start collaborating and discussing possibilities for unity. The RCIT calls socialists to build a joint international organization which fights against all Great Powers – both in East and West – and which supports all liberation struggles of the workers and oppressed peoples against any Great Power or its reactionary lackey.