La burbuja inmobiliaria en la China capitalista

자본주의 중국에서 부동산 거품

Финансовый пузырь на рынке жилья в капиталистическом китае

 

Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic make global investors tremble and for good reasons

 

by Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 6 October 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

Note of the Editorial Board: The following document contains one figure. This figure can only be viewed in the pdf version of the document below for technical reasons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Great Depression of the capitalist world economy, which began in autumn 2019, has also affected China. This is hardly surprising since China constitutes a key component of global capitalism as it is the leading nation in world manufacturing (with a share of 28.7% of global output). [1]

 

As we noted in recent articles, the world economy is heading towards a second slump and China plays a central role in this development. [2] In the present article we will deal with one of the areas where China’s crisis is evolving – its real estate sector. (For a more extensive analysis of China’s capitalism we refer readers to other works of the RCIT. [3])

 

In recent weeks, several real estate giants – e.g. Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic – have failed to make interest payments. Evergrande alone has unpaid bills totaling more than $300 billion – an “amount [which] is equivalent to 2 per cent of China’s GDP and probably one of the biggest debt piles in the world.“ [4] In fact, these real estate giants are all tottering close to bankruptcy. As a result, their shares at the stock market are plunging. Evergrande’s share price dropped by 80% since the beginning of the year.

 

This development reflects that the financial sector with its characteristic elements of bubble and speculation has become a key element of China’s capitalist economy. It also shows that a significant proportion of its spectacular growth in the past decades had a fictious character. And it also demonstrates that – particularly in the past decade since the Great Recession in 2008/09 – China’s growth was based on a dramatic rise of debts.

 

 

 

Growing Debts

 

 

 

China’s real estate sector has grown in the past decades by extraordinary proportions. In the period from 1995 to 2019, real estate investment – calculated as a share of economic output (GDP) – rose from 5% to over 13%. This is a much higher share than the U.S. ever had in recent history! At the peak of the real estate bubble in the U.S. – before the spectacular wave of bankruptcies which began with Lehman Brothers in 2008 – the figure was 7%. [5]

 

China’s massive real estate expansion was largely financed by increasing debts. Many people – largely from the urban middle class – bought new homes by incurring debts. As a result, China’s household leverage ratio (the ratio of household debt to GDP) has risen rapidly from 18% in 2008 to 60% at the end of 2018. Today, outstanding mortgage debt makes up over 70% of total household debt. [6]

 

In many cases, new homes have been bought by people from the middle class or the bourgeoisie in order to sell them later for profit. In other words, the growing real estate sector was not only financed by growing debts but its whole purpose has become not so much to build new living space for people but rather to make profit via speculation. In 2008, “only” 30% of new homebuyers did already possess one or more dwellings. Ten years later, this share had increased to 87%. In other words, nearly 9 out of 10 new homebuyers did so not in order to find a place for living but rather to get another dwelling either for renting or for selling to someone else.

 

To understand this phenomenon, one needs to know that there is hardly any place in the world where urban housing – relative to income – is more expansive than in China’s cities. If we take the Home Price-to-Rent Ratios, four of the five most expensive cities in the world are Chinese! (Shenzhen, Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai). Shenzhen ratio is two times as large as that of Tokyo and London and four times as large as New York and San Francisco!

 

If China’s real estate giants collapse, it will have massive consequences for the whole economy. In 2016, real estate and construction industries combined accounted for around 29% of China’s GDP. These sectors have also been crucial for job creation, making up around 20% of urban non-private employment. According to Bloomberg, “about 41% of the banking system assets were either directly or indirectly associated with the property sector by the end.” [7]

 

Given the global weight of China’s economy, capitalist speculators and financial institutions all over the world fear the consequences of a default of the real estate market. France’s BNP Paribas – the largest bank in the Eurozone – published a note to investors: “We estimate less than USD50bn of Evergrande’s USD300bn outstanding debt is financed by bank loans. ... Suggesting the Chinese banking sector will have a sufficient buffer to absorb potential bad debts. (…) Over the past week, investors have become increasingly worried about the contagion risks to supply chains (commodities), social stability (construction workers, homebuyers), and credit stress (de-risking on Chinese high yield bonds), as the central government has been relatively muted on the Evergrande situation.” [8]

 

 

 

Soft Landing?

 

 

 

Given the huge weight of the real estate sector, it is quite possible that China’s Stalinist-capitalist regime will do everything it can in order to ensure a “soft landing”. A first sign for such a development is the fact that China’s central bank injected about $123 billion of liquidity into the system in the last two weeks. [9]

 

If the regime does not intervene massively, large sectors of the capitalists and the middle class as well as workers in related industries will suffer drastic consequences. Needless to say that such a scenario would have explosive consequences in the already tense political situation. Li Guangman, a prominent retired newspaper editor with close ties to the regime, recently warned that without proper intervention, “China’s economy and society will be set on the crater of the volcano where all may be ignited any time.” [10]

 

However, even if the regime intervenes and bails out the capitalists, this would also have long-term negative consequences for the economy as it would result in a further massive rise of public indebtedness. By the 3^rd quarter of 2020, China’s total debt as a share of GDP had increased to 288% - nearly double the share of 2008 (about 150%). [11] In its latest China report, the World Bank warned: “At current market interest rates, China’s large debt stock implies a significant aggregate interest burden, exceeding 10 percent of GDP. It is estimated that more than one-third of new credit to the non-financial sector is used to service the existing debt.” [12]

 

The increasing speculative activities are an unmistakable sign that China’s capitalists find it more and more difficult to generate high profit rates in the productive sector. In fact, China’s profit rate has constantly declined since the mid-1990s (See the Figure in the Appendix)

 

 

 

Some Conclusions

 

 

 

Let us draw a few conclusions.

 

1.            First, it is obvious that China is close to another recession. As we did already point out in our recent article on the second slump of the world economy, its industrial production has declined in the past months, it faces power cuts and its real estate sector – the fastest growing sector of its economy in the last decade – is close to bankruptcy. The Stalinist-capitalist regime must massively intervene in the economy in order to avoid a deep recession. However, additional debt will result in higher interest payments and lower growth in the next years.

 

2.            These developments will have dramatic political consequences. Already in the last period, Beijing tightened political control. Its brutal intervention against the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong [13] as well as the draconic Lockdown policy were result of the desire of the Stalinist-capitalist regime to retain undisputed domination. [14] Likewise, the regime clamps down on all forms on “unpatriotic” behavior and “extravagant” public personalities (including pop stars, social media influencer and “effeminate” so-called “sissy boys”). In order to deflect public attention from the domestic crisis, the Stalinist-capitalist regime wipes up chauvinism and threatens war against Taiwan. In the last days, it set one record after the other by sending an increasing number of fighter jets over the island. Global Times – the English-language mouthpiece of the regime – threatened in a recent editorial with the telling title “Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real”. “If the US and the DPP authorities do not take the initiative to reverse the current situation, the Chinese mainland's military punishment for "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces will eventually be triggered. Time will prove that this warning is not just a verbal threat.” [15] In short, China – and the same is true for other imperialist Great Powers like the U.S. – could be increasingly tempted to provoke an external crisis as all major capitalist economies face the danger of a second slump. [16]

 

3.            The huge proportions of the speculative real estate sectors, the declining profit rate, the desire of the regime to help the corporations, all this demonstrates once again what the RCIT and other Marxists have explained since many years: China’s state and economy were, are and will be capitalist (as long as the working class does not overthrow the regime). Only Stalinist fools and pseudo-Trotskyists – like the so-called Spartacist tradition or forces allied with the Argentinean PO – can imagine that the country with the largest number of billionaires and the largest number of top capitalist corporations in the world could be a … “non-capitalist” or even a “socialist” state!

 

4.            All this is also vindicated by the well-known close relations between the “red billionaires” and the “Communist” Party. Xu Jiayin, the boss of the China Evergrande Group, is a symbol for this. He has well-known close ties with the leading group in the party. He himself admitted in a 2018 speech: “All I have and all that Evergrande Group has achieved were endowed by the party, the state and the whole society.” [17] Desmond Shum, a well-connected Chinese businessman, describes in a recently published book (“Red Roulette”) the deeply corrupted world of millionaires, billionaires and politicians. [18] Again, only those blinded by Stalinism or Semi-Stalinism can claim that this would be “socialism”!

 

5.            Finally, the nervous reactions of the global stock markets to the looming bankruptcy of Evergrande and other real estate giants reflect that China’s economy has become a powerful factor in world capitalism. Napoleon famously said “China is a sleeping giant. When she awakes, the world will tremble.” The nervous state of the global stock markets hearing the news about Evergrande and the central place of the Cold War between the Washington and Beijing in world politics fully confirm this. Still, self-proclaimed Trotskyists like the Argentina-based PTS/FT or the Brazil-based PSTU/LIT deny the imperialist character of China, claiming that Beijing would have a kind of dependent or subordinated position to the Western Great Powers. We ask these comrades: “Would a real estate bubble in Argentina or Brazil, or in Malaysia or Indonesia cause such a jittery at Wall Street, London or Frankfurt? Certainly not! But Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic do!” This demonstrates the difference between a dominant and a dominated country in the capitalist world economy, between an imperialist and a semi-colonial state! We repeat once more that it is impossible for Marxists to find a correct orientation without understanding the imperialist nature of China and without such a recognition it is impossible to take a revolutionary position in any conflict between these states, i.e. consistently opposing all of them! [19]

 

 

 

Appendix

 

China: Internal Rate of Return [20]

 

 

 

 

 

Evergrande, Fantasia y Sinic hacen temblar a los inversores globales y por buenas razones

 

por Michael Pröbsting, Secretario Internacional de la Corriente Comunista Revolucionaria Internacional (CCRI), 6 de octubre de 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

Nota del Comité Editorial: El siguiente documento contiene una figura. Esta figura solo se puede ver en la versión pdf del documento a continuación por razones técnicas.

 

 

 

La Gran Depresión de la economía mundial capitalista, que comenzó en otoño de 2019, también ha afectado a China. Esto no es sorprendente, ya que China constituye un componente clave del capitalismo global, ya que es la nación líder en la fabricación mundial (con una participación del 28,7% de la producción mundial). ^[1]

 

Como señalamos en artículos recientes, la economía mundial se encamina hacia una segunda recesión y China juega un papel central en este desarrollo. ^[2] En el presente artículo nos ocuparemos de una de las áreas donde la crisis de China está evolucionando: su sector inmobiliario. (Para un análisis más extenso del capitalismo de China, remitimos a los lectores a otras obras de la CCRI. ^[3])

 

En las últimas semanas, varios gigantes inmobiliarios, por ejemplo, Evergrande, Fantasia y Sinic, no han cumplido con los pagos de intereses. Evergrande por sí solo tiene facturas impagas por un total de más de $300 mil millones, una “cantidad [que] equivale al 2 por ciento del PIB de China y probablemente una de las mayores pilas de deuda del mundo.” ^[4] De hecho, estos gigantes inmobiliarios se están tambaleando al borde de la bancarrota. Como resultado, sus acciones en el mercado de valores se están hundiendo. El precio de la acción de Evergrande cayó un 80% desde principios de año.

 

Este desarrollo refleja que el sector financiero con sus elementos característicos de burbuja y especulación se ha convertido en un elemento clave de la economía capitalista de China. También muestra que una proporción significativa de su espectacular crecimiento en las últimas décadas tuvo un carácter ficticio. Y también demuestra que, particularmente en la última década desde la Gran Recesión en 2008/09, el crecimiento de China se basó en un aumento dramático de las deudas.

 

 

 

Deudas crecientes

 

 

 

El sector inmobiliario de China ha crecido en las últimas décadas en proporciones extraordinarias. En el período de 1995 a 2019, la inversión inmobiliaria, calculada como porcentaje de la producción económica (PIB), aumentó del 5% a más del 13%. ¡Esta es una proporción mucho más alta que la que tuvo Estados Unidos en la historia reciente! En el pico de la burbuja inmobiliaria en Estados Unidos, antes de la espectacular ola de quiebras que comenzó con Lehman Brothers en 2008, la cifra era del 7%. ^[5]

 

La enorme expansión inmobiliaria de China se financió en gran medida mediante el aumento de las deudas. Muchas personas, en su mayoría de la clase media urbana, compraron casas nuevas incurriendo en deudas. Como resultado, el coeficiente de apalancamiento de los hogares de China (la relación entre la deuda de los hogares y el PIB) ha aumentado rápidamente del 18% en 2008 al 60% a fines de 2018. En la actualidad, la deuda hipotecaria pendiente representa más del 70% de la deuda total de los hogares. ^[6]

 

En muchos casos, las casas nuevas han sido compradas por personas de la clase media o la burguesía para luego venderlas con fines de lucro. En otras palabras, el creciente sector inmobiliario no solo se financió con deudas crecientes, sino que todo su propósito no se ha convertido tanto en construir un nuevo espacio vital para las personas sino en obtener ganancias a través de la especulación. En 2008, “solo” el 30% de los nuevos compradores de vivienda ya poseía una o más viviendas. Diez años después, esta participación había aumentado al 87%. En otras palabras, casi 9 de cada 10 nuevos compradores de vivienda no lo hicieron para encontrar un lugar donde vivir, sino para conseguir otra vivienda, ya sea para alquilarla o venderla a otra persona.

 

Para comprender este fenómeno, es necesario saber que casi no hay ningún lugar en el mundo donde la vivienda urbana, en relación con los ingresos, sea más expansiva que en las ciudades de China. Si tomamos la relación precio-alquiler de la vivienda, ¡cuatro de las cinco ciudades más caras del mundo son chinas! (Shenzhen, Beijing, Hong Kong y Shanghai). La proporción de Shenzhen es dos veces mayor que la de Tokio y Londres y cuatro veces mayor que la de Nueva York y San Francisco.

 

Si los gigantes inmobiliarios de China colapsan, tendrá consecuencias masivas para toda la economía. En 2016, las industrias inmobiliaria y de la construcción juntas representaron alrededor del 29% del PIB de China. Estos sectores también han sido cruciales para la creación de empleo, ya que representan alrededor del 20% del empleo urbano no privado. Según Bloomberg, “alrededor del 41% de los activos del sistema bancario estaban asociados directa o indirectamente con el sector inmobiliario al final.” ^[7]

 

Dado el peso global de la economía china, los especuladores capitalistas y las instituciones financieras de todo el mundo temen las consecuencias de un incumplimiento del mercado inmobiliario. BNP Paribas de Francia, el banco más grande de la zona euro, publicó una nota a los inversores: “Estimamos que menos de 50.000 millones de dólares de la deuda pendiente de 300.000 millones de dólares de Evergrande se financia con préstamos bancarios. ... Sugiere que el sector bancario chino tendrá un colchón suficiente para absorber posibles deudas incobrables. (…) Durante la semana pasada, los inversores se han preocupado cada vez más por los riesgos de contagio a las cadenas de suministro (materias primas), la estabilidad social (trabajadores de la construcción, compradores de vivienda) y el estrés crediticio (reducción del riesgo de los bonos chinos de alto rendimiento), como El gobierno ha sido relativamente silencioso sobre la situación de Evergrande.” ^[8]

 

 

 

¿Aterrizaje suave?

 

 

 

Dado el enorme peso del sector inmobiliario, es muy posible que el régimen capitalista estalinista de China haga todo lo posible para garantizar un "aterrizaje suave". Una primera señal de tal desarrollo es el hecho de que el banco central de China inyectó alrededor de $123 mil millones de liquidez en el sistema en las últimas dos semanas. ^[9]

 

Si el régimen no interviene masivamente, grandes sectores de los capitalistas y la clase media, así como los trabajadores de industrias relacionadas, sufrirán consecuencias drásticas. Huelga decir que tal escenario tendría consecuencias explosivas en la ya tensa situación política. Li Guangman, un destacado editor de un periódico retirado con estrechos vínculos con el régimen, advirtió recientemente que, sin la intervención adecuada, “la economía y la sociedad de China se situarán en el cráter del volcán donde todo puede encenderse en cualquier momento”. ^[10]

 

Sin embargo, incluso si el régimen interviene y rescata a los capitalistas, esto también tendría consecuencias negativas a largo plazo para la economía, ya que daría lugar a un aumento masivo del endeudamiento público. Por el 3er trimestre de 2020, la deuda total de China como proporción del PIB había aumentado a 288% - casi el doble de la cuota de 2008 (150%). ^[11] En su último informe sobre China, el Banco Mundial advirtió: “Con las tasas de interés actuales del mercado, el gran volumen de deuda de China implica una carga de interés agregada significativa, superior al 10 por ciento del PIB. Se estima que más de un tercio del nuevo crédito al sector no financiero se utiliza para pagar la deuda existente.” ^[12]

 

Las crecientes actividades especulativas son una señal inequívoca de que a los capitalistas chinos les resulta cada vez más difícil generar altas tasas de beneficio en el sector productivo. De hecho, la tasa de beneficio de China ha disminuido constantemente desde mediados de la década de 1990 (consulte la figura en el apéndice).

 

 

 

Algunas conclusiones

 

 

 

Saquemos algunas conclusiones.

 

1.            Primero, es obvio que China está cerca de otra recesión. Como ya señalamos en nuestro artículo reciente sobre la segunda recesión de la economía mundial, su producción industrial ha disminuido en los últimos meses, enfrenta cortes de energía y su sector inmobiliario -el sector de más rápido crecimiento de su economía en la última década- está cerca de la quiebra. El régimen capitalista-estalinista debe intervenir masivamente en la economía para evitar una recesión profunda. Sin embargo, la deuda adicional resultará en mayores pagos de intereses y un menor crecimiento en los próximos años.

 

2.            Estos desarrollos tendrán consecuencias políticas dramáticas. Ya en el último período, Beijing reforzó el control político. Su brutal intervención contra el movimiento a favor de la democracia en Hong Kong ^[13], así como la draconiana política de encierro fueron resultado del deseo del régimen capitalista-estalinista de retener una dominación indiscutible. ^[14] Del mismo modo, el régimen toma medidas drásticas contra todas las formas de comportamiento “antipatriota” y personalidades públicas “extravagantes” (incluidas las estrellas del pop, los influencers de redes sociales y los “afeminados” que llaman “sissy boys”). Para desviar la atención pública de la crisis interna, el régimen capitalista estalinista acaba con el chovinismo y amenaza con la guerra contra Taiwán. En los últimos días, estableció un récord tras otro al enviar un número creciente de aviones de combate sobre la isla. Global Times, el portavoz en inglés del régimen, amenazó en un editorial reciente con el contundente título “Es hora de advertir a los secesionistas de Taiwán y sus fomentadores: la guerra es real”. “Si Estados Unidos y las autoridades del DPP no toman la iniciativa de revertir la situación actual, eventualmente se activará el castigo militar de China continental por las fuerzas secesionistas de la “independencia de Taiwán”. El tiempo demostrará que esta advertencia no es solo una amenaza verbal.” ^[15] En resumen, China, y lo mismo es cierto para otras grandes potencias imperialistas como Estados Unidos, podría verse cada vez más tentada a provocar una crisis externa, ya que todas las principales economías capitalistas enfrentan el peligro de una segunda recesión. ^[16]

 

3.            Las enormes proporciones de los sectores inmobiliarios especulativos, la tasa de ganancia decreciente, el deseo del régimen de ayudar a las corporaciones, todo esto demuestra una vez más lo que la CCRI y otros marxistas han explicado desde hace muchos años: el estado y la economía de China eran, son y serán capitalistas (siempre que la clase trabajadora no derroque al régimen). Solo los tontos y pseudo-trotskistas estalinistas -como la llamada tradición espartaquista o fuerzas aliadas con el PO argentino- pueden imaginar que el país con el mayor número de multimillonarios y el mayor número de grandes corporaciones capitalistas del mundo podría ser un… “¡Estado no capitalista” o incluso “socialista”!

 

4.            Todo esto también está justificado por las conocidas y estrechas relaciones entre los “multimillonarios rojos” y el Partido “Comunista”. Xu Jiayin, el jefe del Grupo Evergrande de China, es un símbolo de esto. Tiene conocidos estrechos vínculos con el grupo líder del partido. Él mismo admitió en un discurso de 2018: “Todo lo que tengo y todo lo que ha logrado el Grupo Evergrande fue dotado por el partido, el estado y toda la sociedad”. ^[17] Desmond Shum, un hombre de negocios chino bien conectado, describe en un libro recientemente publicado (“Red Roulette”) el mundo profundamente corrupto de millonarios, multimillonarios y políticos. ^[18] De nuevo, ¡sólo aquellos cegados por el estalinismo o el semiestalinismo pueden afirmar que esto sería “socialismo”!

 

5.            Por último, las reacciones nerviosas de los mercados bursátiles mundiales ante la inminente quiebra de Evergrande y otros gigantes inmobiliarios reflejan que la economía de China se ha convertido en un factor poderoso en el capitalismo mundial. Napoleón dijo la famosa frase: “China es un gigante dormido. Cuando despierte, el mundo temblará”. El estado nervioso de los mercados bursátiles mundiales al escuchar las noticias sobre Evergrande y el lugar central de la Guerra Fría entre Washington y Beijing en la política mundial lo confirma plenamente. Aun así, autoproclamados trotskistas como el PTS/FT con sede en Argentina o el PSTU/LIT con sede en Brasil niegan el carácter imperialista de China, alegando que Beijing tendría una especie de posición dependiente o subordinada a las Grandes Potencias occidentales. A estos camaradas les preguntamos: “¿Una burbuja inmobiliaria en Argentina o Brasil, o en Malasia o Indonesia causaría tanto nerviosismo en Wall Street, Londres o Frankfurt? ¡Ciertamente no! ¡Pero Evergrande, Fantasia y Sinic sí lo hacen!” ¡Esto demuestra la diferencia entre un país dominante y un país dominado en la economía mundial capitalista, entre un estado imperialista y uno semicolonial! Repetimos una vez más que es imposible para los marxistas encontrar una orientación correcta sin comprender la naturaleza imperialista de China y sin tal reconocimiento es imposible tomar una posición revolucionaria en cualquier conflicto entre estos estados, es decir, ¡oponiéndose consistentemente a todos ellos! ^[19]

 

 

 

Apéndice

 

 

 

China: tasa interna de retorno ^[20]

 

 

 

 

 

 

헝다, 화양녠, 시닉이 글로벌 투자가들을 떨게 하다

 

미하엘 프뢰브스팅, 혁명적 공산주의인터내셔널 동맹 (RCIT) 국제서기, 2021년 10월 6일, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

 

 

편집 주: 이 문서에는 그림 하나가 포함되어 있는데, 기술적인 이유로 아래의 PDF 판에서만 이 그림을 볼 수 있다.

 

 

 

2019년 가을에 시작된 자본주의 세계경제 대공황이 중국도 휘감고 있다. 중국이 세계 제조업선도국 (세계 생산량의 28.7%를 차지하는)으로서 글로벌 자본주의의 핵심 구성부분을 이루고 있다는 점에서 이는 별로 놀라운 일이 아니다.[1]

 

우리가 최근 글들에서 지적했듯이, 세계경제는 (지난 2019년 가을∽2020년 여름의 첫 번째 침체에 이어) 두 번째 침체로 치닫고 있고, 이러한 침체 돌입에 중국의 경제위기가 중심 역할을 하고 있다.[2] 이 글에서 우리는 중국의 위기가 가장 집약적으로 펼쳐지고 있는 분야 중 하나인 부동산 분야를 다룰 것이다. (중국 자본주의에 대한 보다 광범위한 분석으로는, RCIT의 다른 문서들을 독자들에게 권한다.[3])

 

최근 몇 주 동안 헝다그룹 (에버그란데)을 비롯하여 화양녠홀딩스 (판타지아)와 신리홀딩스 (시닉) 등 몇몇 부동산 재벌들이 (수조 원 대의) 이자를 지불하지 못하고 있다. 헝다 한 그룹만도 부채가 총 1조 9700억 위안 (약 356조 원)으로, “중국 GDP의 2%에 해당하는 액수이며 아마도 세계에서 가장 큰 빚더미 중 하나일 것이다.”[4] 실제로 이들 부동산 재벌들은 모두 비틀거리며 파산 직전 상태에 와 있다. 그 결과 주식시장에서 이들 그룹의 주가는 폭락하고 있다. 헝다의 주가는 연초 이래로 80%나 하락했다.

 

이러한 사태전개는 거품과 투기를 특징으로 하는 금융 부문이 중국 자본주의 경제의 핵심 요소가 되어 있는 것을 반영한다. 또 지난 수십 년 동안 금융 부문의 눈부신 성장이 상당 부분 허구적, 의제적 성격을 가지고 있었음을 보여준다. 그리고 또 중국의 성장이 ㅡ 특히 2008/09년 대침체 이래 지난 10년간의 성장이 ㅡ 부채 급증에 바탕을 두고 있었음을 보여준다.

 

 

 

늘어나는 부채

 

 

 

중국의 부동산 부문은 지난 수십 년 동안 엄청난 속도와 비율로 성장했다. 1995년부터 2019년까지의 기간 동안 중국 GDP에서 부동산 투자가 점하는 비율을 보면, 1995년 5%에서 2019년 13.5%로 증가했다. 이는 같은 기간 미국보다 훨씬 더 높은 비율이다! 2008년 리먼 브라더스로 시작된 스펙터클한 파산 물결이 있기 전, 미국 부동산 거품이 최고조에 달했을 때 그 수치는 7%였다.[5]

 

중국의 대대적인 부동산 팽창은 많은 부분 부채에 의해 자금이 조달되었다. 주로 도시 중간계급 출신의 많은 사람들이 빚을 내서 새 집을 구입했다. 그 결과 GDP 대비 가계부채 비율은 2008년 18%에서 2018년 말 60%로 빠르게 증가했다. 오늘, 주택담보대출이 총 가계부채의 70% 이상을 차지한다.[6]

 

새로운 생활공간을 위한 주택 구입보다 투기를 통한 이윤 획득 동기가 부동산 부문 팽창의 주된 동력으로 자리 잡은 지가 이미 십년이 넘었다. 2008년에 신규 주택 구입자 가운데 이미 하나 이상의 주택을 보유하고 있는 사람은 30%에 “불과”했다. 10년 후, 이 비율은 87%로 증가했다. 즉, 신규 주택 구입자 10명 중에 거의 9명이 살 곳을 찾아서가 아니라 임대 용도로 또는 다른 사람에게 팔기 위해서 추가 주택을 구입한 것이다.

 

이 현상을 이해하기 위해서는 세계 어디에도 소득 대비 주택 구입비용이 중국 도시보다 더 비싼 곳은 거의 없다는 것을 알아야 한다. 주택 가격 대 임대료 비율을 기준으로 할 때 세계에서 가장 비싼 도시 5곳 중 4곳이 중국이다. (선전, 베이징, 홍콩, 상하이). 선전의 이 비율은 도쿄와 런던의 두 배, 뉴욕과 샌프란시스코의 네 배다!

 

중국의 거대 부동산 기업들이 파산하면, 전체 경제에 엄청난 결과를 가져올 것이다. 2016년에 부동산과 건설업을 합치면 중국 GDP의 약 29%를 점했다. 이들 부문은 일자리 창출에도 매우 중요한데, 도시 비(非)농업 민간고용의 약 20%를 담당한다. 블룸버그에 따르면, "은행권 자산의 약 41%가 부동산 부문과 직간접적으로 연관되어 있었다."[7]

 

세계경제에서 중국 경제가 차지하는 비중을 감안할 때, 전 세계의 자본주의 투기꾼들과 금융기관들이 부동산 시장의 채무불이행이 낳을 결과를 놓고 두려워하는 것은 당연하다. 유로존 최대 은행인 프랑스의 BNP파리바는 투자자들을 위해 다음과 같은 지라시를 냈다. “우리는 헝다의 3천억 달러 미결 부채 중 500억 달러 가까이가 은행 대출로 조달된 것으로 추정한다... 지난 한 주 동안 투자자들은 공급망 (상품)과 사회안정성 (건설 노동자, 주택 구입자)과 신용 스트레스 (중국 고수익 채권의 리스크 경감)로 번질 전염 위험성에 대한 우려가 점점 더 커지고 있다. 중앙정부가 상대적으로 헝다 사태에 대해 침묵하고 있어서다.”[8]

 

 

 

연착륙?

 

 

 

부동산 부문의 막대한 비중을 감안할 때, 중국 스탈린주의-자본가 정권은 "연착륙"을 확실히 하기 위해 할 수 있는 모든 것을 다 할 것이다. 그러한 방향을 가리키는 첫 번째 신호는 중국 중앙은행이 지난 2주 동안 유동성 확대를 위해 8200억 위안 (약 145조원)을 금융시장에 푼 사실이다.[9]

 

중국 자본가 정권이 대규모로 개입하지 않으면 관련 산업 노동자들뿐만 아니라 자본가와 중간계급 상당 부분도 큰 타격을 입을 것이다. 가뜩이나 긴박한 정치상황에 그런 시나리오가 폭발적 결과를 가져오리라는 것은 말할 필요도 없다. 정권과 밀접한 관계에 있는 저명한 언론편집인 리광만 (李光滿)은 최근 "적절한 개입이 없으면 중국 경제와 사회는 언제든 죄다 불붙을 수 있는 화산 분화구에 놓일 것이다"라고 경고했다.[10]

 

그러나 정권이 개입해서 자본가들을 구제한다고 해도, 그로 인해 또 공공부채가 대폭 늘어날 것이므로 경제에 장기적으로 부정적 결과를 초래할 것이다. 2020년 3분기에는 GDP 대비 총 부채 비율이 288%로까지 상승했는데, 이는 2008년 (약 150%)의 거의 두 배 규모다.[11] 세계은행은 최신 중국 보고서에서 다음과 같이 경고했다. "현 시장금리로 볼 때, 중국의 대규모 부채는 GDP의 10%를 초과하는 상당한 이자 부담을 안고 있다. 비금융 부문 신규 대출의 3분의 1 이상이 기존 부채 원리금 지급에 사용되는 것으로 추정된다."[12]

 

투기가 활발해지는 것은 중국 자본가들이 생산적 부문에서 높은 이윤율을 창출하는 것이 점점 더 어려워지고 있다는 명백한 신호다. 실제로 중국의 이윤율은 1990년대 중반 이래로 지속적으로 하락하고 있다. (아래 부록 그림에 있는 수치 참조).

 

 

 

몇 가지 결론

 

 

 

1. 첫째, 중국이 또 한 차례 경기침체에 근접한 것은 명백하다. 우리가 세계경제의 두 번째 침체에 관한 최근 글에서 이미 지적했듯이, 세계 산업생산이 지난 몇 달 동안 감소했고, 전력난을 맞고 있으며, 부동산 부문 ㅡ 지난 10년 동안 가장 빠르게 커진 경제 부문 ㅡ 은 파산 직전이다. 깊은 침체를 피하기 위해 중국 자본가 정권은 경제에 대대적으로 개입할 수밖에 없다. 그러나 추가 부채로 인해 결국 향후 몇 년 동안 이자 지급 증가와 성장 저하로 결과할 것이다.

 

2. 이러한 사태발전은 극적인 정치적 결과를 가져올 것이다. 직전 시기에 이미 중국 스탈린주의-자본가 정권은 홍콩 민주화운동 진압을 위한 잔학한 개입과 계엄령 식 록다운 정책을 통해 정치적 통제의 고삐를 바짝 조였다.[14] 또 모든 형태의 "비애국적" 행동에 대한 단속을 강화하고 있다. 국내 위기로부터 대중의 주의를 돌리기 위해 애국주의와 배외주의를 부추기고 대만을 겨냥해 전쟁 위협을 고조시키고 있다. 지난 며칠, 중국 자본가 정권은 대만 섬 상공에 띄우는 전투기 수를 거듭 늘려가며 이제까지의 기록을 갈아치웠다. 정권 기관지 환구시보는 최근 사설에서 다음과 같이 위협했다. “대만 분리주의자들과 그 선동자들에게 경고할 시간이다. 전쟁은 진짜다." "미국과 민진당 당국이 원상회복을 위한 조치를 취하지 않는다면 ‘대만 독립’ 분리주의 세력에 대한 중국 본토의 군사적 응징이 마침내 방아쇠가 당겨질 것이다. 이 경고가 단지 구두상의 위협이 아니라는 것은 시간이 증명해줄 것이다.”[15] 간단히 말해서, 모든 자본주의 경제국들이 두 번째 침체 위험에 직면하면서 중국도 ㅡ 미국 등 다른 제국주의 강대국들과 마찬가지로 ㅡ 점점 더 외부 위기를 유발하려는 유혹에 끌릴 수 있다.[16]

 

3. 투기적 부동산 부문의 거대한 비중, 하락하는 이윤율, 기업들을 도우려는 정권의 바람, 이 모든 것은 RCIT를 비롯한 맑스주의자들이 수년 전부터 설명해온 것을 다시 한 번 드러내 보여준다. 중국의 국가와 경제는 자본주의였고 자본주의이며 (노동자계급이 이 자본가 정권을 타도할 때까지는) 자본주의일 것이다. 스탈린주의 백치들과 사이비 트로츠키주의자들만이 세계에서 가장 많은 수의 억만장자와 세계 최상위 독점자본 기업들을 가진 나라를 “사회주의” 국가 또는 모종의 “노동자국가”라고 상상할 수 있다!

 

4. 이 모든 것은 "붉은 억만장자"와 "공산"당 간의 모두가 다 아는 긴밀한 관계에 의해서도 입증된다. 헝다그룹 총수 쉬자인 회장은 이 점을 압축적으로 보여주는 상징이다. 쉬자인은 중공 당내 선두그룹과 두터운 유대관계에 있는 것으로 잘 알려져 있다 그 자신이 2018년 연설에서 이 점을 인정하고 있다. "내가 가진 모든 것과 헝다그룹이 이룬 모든 것은 당과 국가, 그리고 사회 전체가 부여한 것이다."[17] 탄탄한 연줄을 가진 중국 사업가 데스먼드 슘 (선둥·沈棟)은 최근 출간한 책 ("레드 룰렛")에서 백만장자, 억만장자, 정치인들의 뿌리깊이 썩은 유착 관계를 묘사하고 있다.[18] 다시 말하지만, 스탈린주의 또는 준 스탈린주의에 눈이 먼 사람들만이 이것이 "사회주의"라고 주장할 수 있다!

 

5. 끝으로, 헝다를 비롯한 부동산 재벌들의 파산 임박에 불안 초조해 하는 세계 주식시장의 겁먹은 반응은 중국 경제가 세계 자본주의의 강력한 요인이 되어 있는 것을 반영한다. 나폴레옹은 "중국은 잠자는 거인이다. 중국이 깨어나면 세계가 벌벌 떨 것이다“라는 유명한 말을 남겼다. 헝다 뉴스를 듣고 있는 세계 주식시장의 불안 초조 상태와 미·중 간 냉전이 세계정치에서 차지하는 중심 지위가 이 말을 부족함 없이 확인시켜 준다. 그럼에도 불구하고 많은 자칭 트로츠키주의자들 (브라질 PSTU/LIT나 아르헨티나 PTS/FT 같은)이 중국의 제국주의적 성격을 부인하며, 중국이 서방 강대국들에 대해 모종의 종속적인 지위에 있다고 주장한다. 우리는 이 동지들에게 묻는다. "중국 말고 브라질이나 아르헨티나, 말레이시아나 인도네시아의 부동산 거품이 월가, 런던, 프랑크푸르트에 그런 불안감을 줄까요? 당치 않죠. 못 주죠! 하지만 헝다, 화양녠, 시닉은 주죠. 제대로 주죠!" 이것은 자본주의 세계경제에서 지배적 지위에 있는 나라와 지배 받는 지위에 있는 나라 간의 차이를, 제국주의 국가와 반(半)식민지 국가 간의 차이를 보여준다. 거듭 강조하건대, 사회주의자가 중국의 제국주의적 본질을 인식하지 않고는 변혁의 올바른 방향을 찾는 것이 불가능하다. 그러한 인식 없이는 이들 국가 간의 어떤 분쟁에서도 혁명적 입장, 즉 이들 모두를 일관되게 반대하는 혁명적 입장을 취하는 것이 불가능하다.[19]

 

 

 

부록

 

중국 이윤율 [20]

 

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

[1] Felix Richter: These are the top 10 manufacturing countries in the world, World Economic Forum, 25.2.2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/countries-manufacturing-trade-exports-economics/; output measured on a value-added basis in current U.S. dollars.

 

[2] Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/ [<세계경제: 현 대공황 내 두 번째 침체로 치닫나?> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/#anker_2]; RCIT 아르헨티나 동지들의 다음 글들도 보라. Juan Giglio: A 13 años del Lehman Brothers y en el medio de la caída de Evergrande, 26.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/a-13-anos-del-lehman-brothers-y-en-el.html; Damián Quevedo, Evergrande, una burbuja a punto de explotar en nuestro continente, 5.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/evergrande-una-burbuja-punto-de.html

 

[3] RCIT는 중국 자본주의에 관한 많은 문서를 발표했다. 이에 대해서는 다음을 보라. Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, Chapter I, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/ [<<강대국 패권쟁투 시대에 반제국주의>> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/book-anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/]; 같은 저자의 다음 책에 실린 글도 보라. the second edition of The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (edited by Immanuel Ness and Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; How is it possible that some Marxists still Doubt that China has Become Capitalist? (A Critique of the PTS/FT), An analysis of the capitalist character of China’s State-Owned Enterprises and its political consequences, 18 September 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Unable to See the Wood for the Trees (PTS/FT and China). Eclectic empiricism and the failure of the PTS/FT to recognize the imperialist character of China, 13 August 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/; China’s Emergence as an Imperialist Power (Article in the US journal 'New Politics'), in: “New Politics”, Summer 2014 (Vol:XV-1, Whole #: 57)

 

[4] India Today: Explained: Why China’s Evergrande crisis has sent global stock markets in panic mode, 21 September 2021, https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/china-evergrande-crisis-global-stock-markets-in-panic-mode-1855467-2021-09-21

 

[5] 중국 부동산 부문에 관한 수치는, 달리 명시하지 않는 한 전미경제연구소(NBER)의 미국인 분석가와 중국인 분석가 두 사람이 공동 발표한 매우 유익한 연구논문에서 따온 것이다.: Kenneth S. Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang: Peak China Housing, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 27697, http://www.nber.org/papers/w27697

 

[6] 이에 대해서는 다음 기사도 보라. Martin Wolf: The economic threats from China’s real estate bubble, Financial Times, 5.10.2021, https://www.ft.com/content/1abd9d4b-8d94-4797-bdd7-bee0f960746a

 

[7] Bloomberg: China's banks downplay risks after Evergrande misses payments, 23 September 2021, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2021/09/23/chinas-banks-downplay-risks-after-evergrande-misses-payments/

 

[8] 다음 로이터 통신에서 인용: What analysts have to say about Evergrande as default risks rise, 21 September 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande-debt-idCNL4N2QN127

 

[9] William Pesek: Xi plots prudent response to Evergrande crisis, Asia Times, 4 October 2021, https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/xi-plots-prudent-response-to-evergrande-crisis/

 

[10] 다음에서 인용.Quoted in Alexandra Stevenson, Michael Forsythe and Cao Li: China and Evergrande Ascended Together. Now One Is About to Fall, Sept. 28, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/business/china-evergrande-economy.html

 

[11] World Bank: China Economic Update, December 2020: From Recovery to Rebalancing: China’s Economy in 2021, Washington 2020, p. 28; Desmond Lachman: Is this China's Lehman Brothers moment? 21.09.2021, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/573102-is-this-chinas-lehman-brothers-moment

 

[12] World Bank: China Economic Update, June 2021 : Beyond the Recovery - Charting a Green and Inclusive Growth Path, Washington 2021, p. 30

 

[13] 이에 대해서는 다음을 보라. RCIT: China / Hong Kong: The Beginning of the Counterrevolution. The new National Security Law represents a full-scale assault on democratic rights by the Stalinist-Capitalist regime! 1 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/china-hong-kong-the-beginning-of-the-counterrevolution/

 

[14] RCIT는 코로나19 반혁명을 그 시작 이래로 광범위에 걸쳐 분석해 왔다. 2020년 2월 2일부터 우리는 90편의 소책자와 논문, 기사, 성명에 단행본 책까지 발표했다. 이 모든 것을 다음의 우리 웹사이트 별도 하위 페이지에 모아놓았다. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. 특히 다음을 보라. RCIT Manifesto: COVID-19: A Cover for a Major Global Counterrevolutionary Offensive. We are at a turning point in the world situation as the ruling classes provoke a war-like atmosphere in order to legitimize the build-up of chauvinist state-bonapartist regimes, 21 March 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-a-cover-for-a-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/. [<코로나19: 글로벌 반혁명 공세를 가리는 덮개> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/covid-19-cover-for-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/] 다음의 RCIT 2차 시국선언도 보라. Manifesto: “Green Pass” & Compulsory Vaccinations: A New Stage in the COVID Counterrevolution. Down with the chauvinist-bonapartist police & surveillance state – defend democratic rights! No to health policy in the service of the capitalist monopolies – expand the public health sector under workers and popular control! 29 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/ [<“백신여권” & 백신접종 의무화: 코로나 반혁명의 새로운 단계> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/#anker_3]; 다음도 보라. Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/. [<<코로나19 글로벌 반혁명>> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/book-the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/] 이 문제에 대한 다음 우리의 첫 기사도 보라. Almedina Gunić: Coronavirus: "I am not a Virus"... but WE will be the Cure! The chauvinist campaign behind the “Wuhan Coronavirus” hysteria and the revolutionary answer, 2 February 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/wuhan-virus/ [<코로나바이러스: “우한 바이러스”히스테리 뒤에 숨은 배외주의 캠페인> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/wuhan-virus/]; Michael Pröbsting: The Second Wave of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution. On the ruling class strategy in the current conjuncture, its inner contradictions and the perspectives of the workers and popular resistance, 20 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-second-wave-of-the-covid-19-counterrevolution/; 같은 저자: The Police and Surveillance State in the Post-Lockdown Phase. A global review of the ruling class’s plans of expanding the bonapartist state machinery amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 21 May 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/police-and-surveillance-state-in-post-lockdown-phase/; COVID-19: The Great Barrington Declaration is indeed Great! Numerous medical scientists protest against the reactionary lockdown policy, 11 October 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-the-great-barrington-declaration-is-indeed-great/; Michael Pröbsting: COVID-19: The Current and Historical Roots of Bourgeois Lockdown “Socialism”. Police State and Universal Basic Income are key elements of the new version of reformist “War Socialism” of 1914, 19 December 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/covid-19-the-current-and-historical-roots-of-bourgeois-lockdown-socialism/. RCIT 아르헨티나 동지들의 다음 스페인어 기사들도 보라. Juan Giglio: La izquierda de la "Big Pharma", dejó de defender las libertades, 1.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/la-izquierda-de-la-big-pharma-dejo-de.html; Juan Giglio: ¿Por qué la izquierda no cuestiona las políticas de la OMS? 8.9.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/por-que-la-izquierda-no-cuestiona-las.html

 

[15] Global Times: Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real, Global Times Editorial, 4 October 2021, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235638.shtml

 

[16] RCIT는 강대국들의 제국주의 간 패권쟁투에 대해 여러 차례 다룬 바 있다. 다음을 보라. RCIT document: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/ [<세계 정세전망 2021-22년: 준 혁명적 세계정세 진입> https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/#anker_14]; 다음도 보라. RCIT: The Meaning of the AUKUS Pact. The U.S. escalates the inter-imperialist Cold War against China and provokes the EU, 18 September 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/ [<오커스 조약의 의미> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/#anker_3; Russia Fires Warning Shots against UK Warship in the Black Sea. Down with Cold Warmongering! No support for any imperialist Great Power – neither UK, US nor Russia! 24 June 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/ [<러시아가 흑해에서 영국 군함에 경고사격하고. 영국은 사태를 부인, 축소하려 하다> https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/#anker_1]; 다음 두 팜플렛도 보라. Michael Pröbsting: “A Really Good Quarrel”. US-China Alaska Meeting: The Inter-Imperialist Cold War Continues, 23 March 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/ [<제국주의 간 냉전은 어떻게 바이든 하에서도 계속되고 있나> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/us-china-cold-war-continues-after-alaska-meeting/]; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/ [<두 주인을 섬기는 시종, 스탈린주의와 제국주의 신냉전> https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/#anker_10; 이 문제에 관한 문서들이 더 있다. 다음 링크로 들어가서 볼 수 있다. https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ 및 https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

 

[17] 다음에서 인용. Alexandra Stevenson, Michael Forsythe and Cao Li: China and Evergrande Ascended Together

 

[18] Desmond Shum: Red Roulette. An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today's China, Simon & Schuster, New York 2021

 

[19] 제국주의 간 분쟁에 관한 우리의 강령적 접근법으로는, 다음을 보라. RCIT: Theses on Revolutionary Defeatism in Imperialist States, 8 September 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/theses-on-revolutionary-defeatism-in-imperialist-states/ [<제국주의 국가에서의 혁명적 패전주의에 관한 테제> https://www.thecommunists.net/home/%ED%95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%96%B4/theses-on-revolutionary-defeatism-in-imperialist-states/; 다음도 보라. chapters XVI to XX in the above-mentioned book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry.

 

[20] Michael Roberts: China at a turning point? 5 October 2021, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2021/10/05/china-at-a-turning-point/

 

 

 

Застройщики Evergrande, Fantasia, и Sinic пугают инвесторов во всем мире

 

Михаэль Прёбстинг, Международный секретарь Революционной Коммунистической Интернациональной Тенденции (РКИТ), 6 октября 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

Примечание редакторов: документ содержит иллюстрации, которые по техническим причинам могут быть видны только в pdf версии статьи

 

 

 

 

Мировой кризис с осени 2019 года влияет на экономику КНР. Это неудивительно, КНР — это один из ведущих участников мировой экономики в сфере производства. Доля производства КНР составляет около 28,7% от мирового промышленного выпуска. [1]

 

Мы показывали в ряде статей, что мировая экономика идёт ко второму спаду, где КНР занимает не последнее место.[2] В данной статье мы разберёмся с  одной из сфер, где наблюдается кризис, а именно в сфере застройки жилья. (Более подробный анализ экономики КНР можно найти в следующих работах). [3]

 

В течение последних недель ряд гигантов- астройщиков не смогли выплатить проценты по кредитам. Только Evergrande не смогла сделать выплату по долгу на сумму более 300 млрд. долларов — «сумма порядка 2% ВВП КНР и, возможно, самая большая задолженность во всем мире».[4] На самом деле строительный гигант близок к банкротству. Из-за этого цена ценных бумаг Evergrande на бирже упала на 80% с начала этого года.

 

Такое развитие событий показывает, что спекулятивный сектор является ключевым компонентом экономики КНР. Кроме того, это показывает, что с кризиса 2008/09 года и в течение последнего десятилетия долг значительно вырос в КНР.

 

 

 

Рост долгов

 

 

 

Китайский рынок застройки вырос в невероятных пропорциях за последние десятилетия. За период с 1995 до 2019 инвестиции в рынок жилья выросли с 5% до 13% от ВВП. Такая доля значительно превышает даже долю рынка жилья США за настоящую историю. Во время кризиса 2008 доля от ВВП рынка жилья составляла порядка 7%![5]

 

Рынок недвижимости КНР был значительно обеспечен растущим долгом. Значительная часть из городского среднего класса покупала новые дома за счет роста долгов. В результате соотношение собственных и заёмных средств домохозяйств к ВВП вырос с 18% в 2008 году до 60% к концу 2018. Сегодня невероятная задолженность по ипотекам составляет 70% от всех долгов домохозяйств. [6]

 

Во многих случаях новые дома были куплены средним классом или буржуазией для дальнейшей перепродажи. Иными словами, растущий сектор недвижимости вырос за счет спекуляции. Только в 2007 году покупатели жилья имели одно или два помещения, а уже через 10 лет их доля выросла до 87%. Иными словами каждый 9 или 10 покупатель жилья использует его для перепродажи или сдачи в аренду.

 

Для общего понимания во всем мире тяжело найти более дорогого жилья чем в городах КНР. Согласно данным по соотношению цены к ренте 4 из 5 самых дорогих городов находятся в КНР (Шанхай, Пекин, Гонконг и Шэньчжэнь).  Шэньчжэнь это соотношение уже в два раза выше чем в Токио и Лондоне и в 4 раза выше чем в Нью-Йорке и Сан-Франциско!

 

Если мировой гигант Evergrande рухнет, то это будет иметь последствия для всего мира. В 2016 году производители жилья составляли порядка 29% от ВВП КНР. Этот сектор также важен для создания рабочих мест, так он в нем занято до 20% от городского публичного сектора. Согласно Bloomberg: «порядка 41% активов банковской системы прямо ли косвенно связаны с сектором недвижимости.» [7]

 

Из-за мирового веса экономики КНР спекулятивный сектор и финансовые институты во всем мире опасаются последствий дефолта рынка недвижимости. Французский банк Paribas — крупнейший банк Еврозоны — опубликовал следующую заметку для инвесторов: «Мы оцениваем, что не менее 50 млрд. из 300 млрд долга Evergrande финансируется банковскими долгами. Предполагается, что банковский сектор КНР будет иметь существенную подушку безопасности для поглощения плохих долгов (…) За последнюю неделю инвесторы стали более обеспокоены растущими рисками, связанными с цепочками поставок товаров, социальной стабильности (строители, покупатели жилья) и из-за кредитного сектора (снижение рисков от высокодоходных долговых облигаций КНР), так как центральное правительство молчит относительно ситуации с Evergrande» [8]

 

 

 

Мягкая посадка?

 

 

 

Из-за высокого веса рынка недвижимости, вероятно, что китайский режим сталинистов сделает все возможное для «мягкой посадки». Первым знаком является вброс 123 млрд. долларов в финансовую систему за последние недели. [9]

 

Без вмешательства режима капиталисты, средний класс, а также рабочие из строительных фирм ощутят на себе самые тяжелые последствия спада. Не надо даже говорить, что это будет иметь последствия для стабильности страны. Один из ведущих редакторов про-режимной газеты пишет: «Экономика КНР и общество будет кинуто в жерло вулкана, где все сгорит в один момент».[10]

 

Тем не менее, даже если режим вмешается и спасет капиталистов, это будет иметь долгосрочные негативные последствия для экономики, так как это увеличит публичный долг. На третий квартал 2020 года долг КНР к ВВП составил 288% против 150% в 2008. Мировой банк сообщает: «При текущей ставке, суммированный долг КНР ведет к значительной нагрузке на ВВП до 10% от его обслуживания. Более одной трети нового кредита не финансового сектора используется для обслуживания существующего долга.»[12]

 

Рост спекулятивного сектора показывает растущую проблему для капиталистов КНР в  поиске более высоких норм прибыли в промышленном секторе. На самом деле норма прибыли КНР падала с середины 90ых (см. фигуры в приложении)

 

 

 

Некоторые выводы

 

 

 

Давайте сделаем несколько выводов.

 

1. Во-первых, КНР близка к спаду. Как мы уже указали в статье про второй спад мировой экономики, промышленный сектор значительно упал за последние месяцы. Промышленный сектор сталкивается с перебоями поставок электроэнергии и сектор недвижимости (самый быстро растущий сектор экономики) близок к банкротству. Режим  сталинистов КНР должен сильно вмешиваться в экономике для того, чтобы обойти рецессию. Тем не менее, новый долг будет иметь отрицательные долгосрочные последствия.

 

2. Текущие события будут иметь значительные политические последствия. Во-первых, режим все более усиливает полицейские контроль. Режим активно вмешивается в демократические протесты в Гонконге [13], а также через политику локдаунов. [14] Также режим атакуют все формы «патриотического» и «ненормального» поведения (включая поп-звезд, блогеров и «женственных» мужчин). Это делается для того, чтобы отвести внимание от социальных проблем вместе с ростом шовинизма и милитаризма против Тайваня. Global Times в статье с заголовком «Пора предупредить сепаратистов Тайваня, что война близка»: «Если США и DPP не возьмут инициативу для перемены текущей ситуации, материковые Китайские военные силы накажут «Тайваньскую независимость». Время перейти от пустых слов к делу» [15] Таким образом, КНР, как и все остальные Великие силы, желают спровоцировать внешние политические кризисы при встрече со вторым спадом экономики. [16]

 

3. РКИТ в очередной раз, как и все остальные марксисты, демонстрируют миру, что экономика КНР является капиталистической, указывает на финансовый сектор и помощь КНР корпорациям. Только совершенно глупые сталинисты и псевдо-троцкисты, как спартакисты или Аргентинская ПТ, считают экономику КНР не капиталистической и даже социалистической!

 

4. На это указывают также отношения между «красными миллиардерами» и «коммунистической» партией. Глава China Evergrande Group является примером этого. Cюй Цзинь отметил в 2018 году: «Все достижениям China Evergrande Group я обязан партии, государству и всему обществу» [17]. Дземонд Шам, китайский бизнесмен, описывает в своей недавно опубликованной книге («Красная рулетка») мир коррумпированных политиков КНР и бизнесменов [18]. Только очень слепые могут верить, что это можно считать «социализмом»!

 

5. Наконец банкротство  Evergrande и других спекулятивных гигантов показывает, что КНР стала весомой силой в мировом капитализме. Наполеон отметил: «Китай — это спящий гигант,  когда она проснется мир содрогнется.» Текущее банкротство застройщиков и Холодная война между Вашингтоном и Пекином подтверждают это. Псевдо-троцкисты из Аргентинской PTS или Бразильской PSTU отрицают империалистический характер КНР. Мы задаем вопрос этим товарищам: «Сможет ли финансовый пузырь в Аргентине или Бразилии, Малазии или Индонезии вызвать дрожь Уолл-Стрита, Лондона или Франкуфрта? Конечно, нет. Но пузырь в КНР да!» Это демонстрирует положение между государствами, а мы, таким образом повторяем, что без понимания природы КНР и признание ее империалистом — невозможно понять или занять конкретную политическую позицию сегодня! [19]

 

 

 

Приложение

 

 

 

China: Internal Rate of Return [20]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] Felix Richter: These are the top 10 manufacturing countries in the world, World Economic Forum, 25.2.2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/countries-manufacturing-trade-exports-economics/; output measured on a value-added basis in current U.S. dollars.

 

[2] Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/; see also these articles by our Argentinean comrades: Juan Giglio: A 13 años del Lehman Brothers y en el medio de la caída de Evergrande, 26.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/a-13-anos-del-lehman-brothers-y-en-el.html; Damián Quevedo, Evergrande, una burbuja a punto de explotar en nuestro continente, 5.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/evergrande-una-burbuja-punto-de.html

 

[3] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in China and its transformation into a Great Power. See on this e.g. our book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/. See also by the same author an essay published in the second edition of The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (edited by Immanuel Ness and Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; How is it possible that some Marxists still Doubt that China has Become Capitalist? (A Critique of the PTS/FT), An analysis of the capitalist character of China’s State-Owned Enterprises and its political consequences, 18 September 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Unable to See the Wood for the Trees (PTS/FT and China). Eclectic empiricism and the failure of the PTS/FT to recognize the imperialist character of China, 13 August 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/; China’s Emergence as an Imperialist Power (Article in the US journal 'New Politics'), in:  “New Politics”, Summer 2014 (Vol:XV-1, Whole #: 57)

 

[4] India Today: Explained: Why China’s Evergrande crisis has sent global stock markets in panic mode, 21 September 2021, https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/china-evergrande-crisis-global-stock-markets-in-panic-mode-1855467-2021-09-21

 

[5] The figures on China’s real estate sector, if not indicated otherwise, are taken from a highly informative research paper which has been recently published by a U.S. and a Chinese analyst from the National Bureau of Economic Research: Kenneth S. Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang: Peak China Housing, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 27697, http://www.nber.org/papers/w27697

 

[6] See on this also Martin Wolf: The economic threats from China’s real estate bubble, Financial Times, 5.10.2021, https://www.ft.com/content/1abd9d4b-8d94-4797-bdd7-bee0f960746a

 

[7] Bloomberg: China's banks downplay risks after Evergrande misses payments, 23 September 2021, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2021/09/23/chinas-banks-downplay-risks-after-evergrande-misses-payments/

 

[8] Quoted in Reuters: What analysts have to say about Evergrande as default risks rise, 21 September 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande-debt-idCNL4N2QN127

 

[9] William Pesek: Xi plots prudent response to Evergrande crisis, Asia Times, 4 October 2021, https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/xi-plots-prudent-response-to-evergrande-crisis/

 

[10] Quoted in Alexandra Stevenson, Michael Forsythe and Cao Li: China and Evergrande Ascended Together. Now One Is About to Fall, Sept. 28, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/business/china-evergrande-economy.html

 

[11] World Bank: China Economic Update, December 2020: From Recovery to Rebalancing: China’s Economy in 2021, Washington 2020, p. 28; Desmond Lachman: Is this China's Lehman Brothers moment? 21.09.2021, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/573102-is-this-chinas-lehman-brothers-moment

 

[12] World Bank: China Economic Update, June 2021 : Beyond the Recovery - Charting a Green and Inclusive Growth Path, Washington 2021, p. 30

 

[13] See on this e.g. RCIT: China / Hong Kong: The Beginning of the Counterrevolution. The new National Security Law represents a full-scale assault on democratic rights by the Stalinist-Capitalist regime! 1 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/china-hong-kong-the-beginning-of-the-counterrevolution/

 

[14] The RCIT has analysed the COVID-19 counterrevolution extensively since its beginning. Starting from 2 February 2020 we have published nearly 90 pamphlets, essays, articles and statements plus a book which are all compiled at a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. In particular we refer readers to the RCIT Manifesto: COVID-19: A Cover for a Major Global Counterrevolutionary Offensive. We are at a turning point in the world situation as the ruling classes provoke a war-like atmosphere in order to legitimize the build-up of chauvinist state-bonapartist regimes, 21 March 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-a-cover-for-a-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/. See also a new RCIT Manifesto: “Green Pass” & Compulsory Vaccinations: A New Stage in the COVID Counterrevolution. Down with the chauvinist-bonapartist police & surveillance state – defend democratic rights! No to health policy in the service of the capitalist monopolies – expand the public health sector under workers and popular control! 29 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/; In addition, we draw attention to our book by Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/. See also our very first article on this issue by Almedina Gunić: Coronavirus: "I am not a Virus"... but WE will be the Cure! The chauvinist campaign behind the “Wuhan Coronavirus” hysteria and the revolutionary answer, 2 February 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/wuhan-virus/; Michael Pröbsting: The Second Wave of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution. On the ruling class strategy in the current conjuncture, its inner contradictions and the perspectives of the workers and popular resistance, 20 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-second-wave-of-the-covid-19-counterrevolution/; by the same author: The Police and Surveillance State in the Post-Lockdown Phase. A global review of the ruling class’s plans of expanding the bonapartist state machinery amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 21 May 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/police-and-surveillance-state-in-post-lockdown-phase/; COVID-19: The Great Barrington Declaration is indeed Great! Numerous medical scientists protest against the reactionary lockdown policy, 11 October 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-the-great-barrington-declaration-is-indeed-great/; Michael Pröbsting: COVID-19: The Current and Historical Roots of Bourgeois Lockdown “Socialism”. Police State and Universal Basic Income are key elements of the new version of reformist “War Socialism” of 1914, 19 December 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/covid-19-the-current-and-historical-roots-of-bourgeois-lockdown-socialism/. See also a number of Spanish-language articles of our Argentinean comrades: Juan Giglio: La izquierda de la "Big Pharma", dejó de defender las libertades, 1.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/la-izquierda-de-la-big-pharma-dejo-de.html; Juan Giglio: ¿Por qué la izquierda no cuestiona las políticas de la OMS? 8.9.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/por-que-la-izquierda-no-cuestiona-las.html

 

[15] Global Times: Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real, Global Times Editorial, 4 October 2021, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235638.shtml

 

[16] The RCIT has dealt on numerous occasions with the inter-imperialist rivalry of the Great Powers. See e.g. the RCIT document: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; see also: RCIT: The Meaning of the AUKUS Pact. The U.S. escalates the inter-imperialist Cold War against China and provokes the EU, 18 September 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/; Russia Fires Warning Shots against UK Warship in the Black Sea. Down with Cold Warmongering! No support for any imperialist Great Power – neither UK, US nor Russia! 24 June 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/; see also the following two pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: “A Really Good Quarrel”. US-China Alaska Meeting: The Inter-Imperialist Cold War Continues, 23 March 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/; for more works on this issue see these sub-pages: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

 

[17] Quoted in Alexandra Stevenson, Michael Forsythe and Cao Li: China and Evergrande Ascended Together

 

[18] Desmond Shum: Red Roulette. An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today's China, Simon & Schuster, New York 2021

 

[19] For our programmatic approach on inter-imperialist conflicts see e.g. RCIT: Theses on Revolutionary Defeatism in Imperialist States, 8 September 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/theses-on-revolutionary-defeatism-in-imperialist-states/; see also chapters XVI to XX in the above-mentioned book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry.

 

[20] Michael Roberts: China at a turning point? 5 October 2021, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2021/10/05/china-at-a-turning-point/