By Laurence Humphries, RCIT Britain, 19th May 2023, www.thecommunists.net

 

On Sunday, 14th May 2023 thousands of voters in Thailand rejected the policies of the Bonapartist clique led by Prayut Chan-o-cha and voted for change. Both the populist forces Move Forward Party and Pheu Thai Party won over 286 seats in the legislature. The masses and oppressed wanted an end of military rule in Thailand and voted for democratic change. The election commission announced that Move Forward had won the election but because of Thailand’s flawed political system no decision will be made without consultation with both the royalty and the military.

 

“Thailand’s reformist opposition has won the most seats and the largest share of the popular vote in a general election after voters roundly rejected the military-backed parties that have ruled the Southeast Asian country for nearly a decade.

 

With almost all votes counted on Monday, the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) and the populist Pheu Thai Party were projected to win about 286 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives. But uncertainty remains about whether they would be able to form the next government due to skewed parliamentary rules that allow 250 members of a military-appointed Senate to vote on the prime minister.

 

That means MFP and Pheu Thai will need the support of smaller parties to establish a new administration.

 

The biggest winner of Sunday’s election was MFP, a progressive youth-led party that contested the general elections for the first time on a bold platform of reforming the monarchy and reducing the power of the military by rewriting the country’s constitution and ending conscription.” [1].

 

To date the Move Forward Party has had agreement on forming a coalition of several parties including the populist-bourgeois party Pheu Thai and other smaller parties. This means that they now have 309 MPs. The Thai constitution of 2017 insists that to form a stable government any political bloc needs 376 seats.

 

“But fears remain that the royalist-military establishment may seek to cling to power. In the past 20 years, the military has staged two coups while the courts have brought down three prime ministers and dissolved several opposition parties.

 

“People are worried and they are scared,” said Hathairat Phaholtap, the managing editor of the Isaan Record newspaper. “They have waited for this vote for so long, and it means a lot to them. There’s a lot of tension, but also excitement and hope.” [2].

 

Inter-Imperialist Rivalry

 

Before the Covid-Counterrevolution and the economic slump of 2019, Thailand was economically one of the strongest of all the semi-colonial, capitalist regimes in Southeast Asia. Globally since the beginning of the war in the Ukraine and the emergence of the Eastern imperialists, China and Russia, the world capitalist system is in meltdown. Under Prayut Chan-o-cha’s leadership the regime had orientated towards China seeking economic aid. The lockdown in Thailand was draconian and very severe, leading to many social uprisings and imprisonment of many young radicals fighting against the implemented Lèse-majesté. These laws made it a crime to criticise the King Maha Vajiralongkorn who has amassed tremendous wealth and leads a corrupt lifestyle. The alliance with the generals in Myanmar in combination with ongoing severe droughts have led to enormous political pressure for the regime. Refugees who were civilians as well as combatants in the war in Myanmar fled from the army dictatorship in Myanmar.

 

“Thailand was one of the strongest economies in South-East Asia, but the onset of the competing rivalries of imperialism has battered the country. The truth of the matter is that Thailand since the Covid-19 pandemic started faces ruin and bankruptcy with the onset of the immense crisis of capitalism. This has led to Thailand’s major tourist industry facing a 40% reduction largely due to the pandemic. There are no holiday makers and local beaches are empty, with no chance of improvement. The hotel and tourism industry is on the verge of collapse leading to mass unemployment, austerity, starvation and poverty for a massively growing number of people. This weak economic basis combined with the Bonapartist regime could provoke a pre-revolutionary situation in Thailand and affect other capitalist countries in South-East Asia.” [3]

 

Move Forward Party and the Pheu Thai Party

 

Both the Move Forward Party and the Pheu Thai Party are populist parties with a bourgeois leadership. Pita Limjaroenrat, a 34-year-old businessman leads the Move Forward Party. Its composition is mainly of young radicals opposed to the royalty and the military. During the Covid-Counterrevolution, the regime arrested thousands of Move Forward supporters and members who were involved in demonstrations and uprisings. The RCIT defended democratic rights as all revolutionaries should have, calling for the immediate release of the activists. Some of the MP’s elected to the legislature for Move Forward face criminal charges because of their actions. They are hoping that they can achieve change through peaceful democratic process. Of course, this is an illusion. The predecessor of the Move Forward Party was suspended and banned by the regime and its leader arrested. The Pheu Thai Party is a populist, bourgeois party founded in 1998 by Thaksin Shinawatra, a wealthy billionaire. He led several governments in 2006, but coups followed instituted by the military regime. Prayut Chan-o-cha, an Army General, took power after overthrowing his sister Yingluck Shinawtra in 2014. Pheu Thai had successfully won a general election in 2014, but the wing of the bonapartist bourgeoisie hates even a shred of help for the poor masses and urban poor and initiated a coup. It was said poor masses who supported Pheu Thai because of the promise to alleviate some of the poverty in Thailand. Thaksin Shinawatra is now in exile, but in the recent election his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra was the primary leader.

 

“Thus the Pheu Thai Party is a bourgeois-populist party which represents a minority faction of the capitalist class but which, however, has to rely on the support of the workers and peasants in order to hold power. Nevertheless Thaksin and his party are despised by the elite because it is a party whose strength is based on the support of the masses of workers and peasants who have repeatedly intervened in the political life of Thailand during the last decade by militant mass mobilizations. However, bourgeois democracy will never solve the issues of poverty and cannot even give full democratic rights. As long as capitalism and imperialism have a foothold in Thailand, exploitation and oppression will be the reality for the workers and the poor”. [4]

 

For a Revolutionary Workers and Poor Peasants Government

 

Although the victory of the bourgeois-populist Move Forward Party seems a step forward for the masses fighting for democratic rights and an end of bonapartism, the military establishment is still a dominant force. The Royal Thai Army (RTA) is instrumental in choosing the 250 senators of the senate, which are all appointed positions and usually represent conservative and royalist sympathies. The military is opposed to Move Forward’s policies on Lèse-majesté, the reduction of powers for the King and the right to challenge him on a number of issues.

 

The decision to choose a new government is taken by both houses, and with only 309 seats in his support, the military can block the appointment of Pita Limjaroenrat as Prime Minister and rule with Royalist parties opposed to Move Forward’s democratic policies. It might continue to rule as a military clique or even institute a coup.

 

The RCIT puts forward the following transitional demands to organise the struggle towards socialism, establishing a workers and poor peasant’s government on the way. We call on everyone who supports the fight for socialism to join the RCIT and to help building a section in Thailand.

 

* Release all prisoners and young radicals from prison immediately! Drop all criminal charges against supporters of bourgeois-democratic rights, those who support Move Forward respectively Pheu Thai! The Thai Constitution must be replaced in order that the working class and the oppressed decide who should rule! For the full abolishment of Lèse-majesté and all other forms of monarchical respectively bonapartist ruling!

 

* For Strikes up to an Indefinite General Strike organised through Action Committees and Councils of Action elected and run by workers, groups of activists and representatives of the urban poor and poor peasantry to fight for democratic rights and the abolishment of all bonapartist and monarchical rule.

 

* For a sovereign, Revolutionary Constituent Assembly under the control of the organized popular masses! In such a Revolutionary Constituent Assembly, working-class activists should put forward socialist proposals and argue in favour of a Workers and Poor-Peasant Government based on Councils of the Workers, the Rural and Urban Poor!

 

* For Armed Defence Guards of the workers and the oppressed masses to protect themselves from provocations and attacks from the police, the military and right-wing forces!

 

* End the imperialist exploitation! Expropriate the multi-national corporations and put them under workers’ control! Abolish all debts without compensation! Summarize all banks into one State Bank under control of the workers!

 

* Only an armed insurrection led by the working class can end the military dictatorship and imperialist exploitation with a minimum number of lost lives! Only a revolutionary workers and poor peasant government can open the road towards a future of freedom, equality and peace, a future of socialism!

 

* To fulfil all of these goals, the vanguard of the workers in Thailand needs to build a revolutionary workers party in close alliance with the urban and rural poor, the militant youth and heroic activists fighting Bonapartism! No bourgeois party, not even the most populist ones, could really lead the struggle for true democracy! In every struggle, revolutionaries defend democratic rights and activists fighting for those rights without an ounce of support for bourgeois politics, politicians and parties!

 

* We call on all workers and poor to study the manifesto of the RCIT and to join the RCIT! Let us build together a new World Party of the Socialist Revolution, a revolutionary 5th International!

 

 

 

Footnotes

 

(1) Thailand election results: Opposition trounces military parties | Elections News | Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/14/thailand-election-results-what-we-know-so-far

 

(2) What you need to know about Thailand’s general election | Politics News | Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/13/whats-at-stake-in-thailands-parliamentary-election

 

(3) Thailand: Pro-Democracy Activists call for Resignation of Prayuth-Chan-o-cha and his Bonapartist Regime - RCIT - Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (thecommunists.net), https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/thailand-pro-democracy-activists-call-for-resignation-of-prayut-chan-o-cha-and-his-bonapartist-regime/

 

(4) Thailand: Result of General Election Produces Stalemate and Deadlock - RCIT - Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (thecommunists.net), https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/thailand-result-of-general-election-produces-stalemate-and-deadlock/

By Laurence Humphries, RCIT Britain, www.thecommunists.net

 

On the 13th July, Pita Limjaroenrat, the 42 year old businessman and leader of the populist Move Forward party attended both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the hope of being chosen as the new Prime Minister. The constitutional position in Thailand is a complicated one, consisting of 500 house-of-representative members, 400 elected by single member constituency and 100 by party lists parallel voting. These 500 members are part of the so-called lower house. In addition, there is the senate, which is the upper house with 250 members, the so-called senators. The upper chamber is not elected but rather appointed by a committee, which itself is selected by the military. Most senators are hostile to the politics of the democratic populist Move Forward party. Unsurprisingly, Limjaroenrat failed in his bid. Under the Thailand constitution a candidate needs overall 375 votes to get elected. Limjaroenrat only managed to collect 323 votes. Most of the senators either did not appear, abstained, or voted against his candidature. There will now be a second round of voting. In fact, the figures by the news outlet Aljazeera show that 198 voting members abstained, 182 voted against him while the rest was not attending at all. Only 13 of the senators supported his candidature which proves that the upper house had no intention of letting Limjaroenrat be chosen as Prime Minister.

 

“Thailand’s Pita Limjaroenrat has said he will not give up after losing in a parliamentary vote for the prime minister’s position, where he was 51 votes shy of the required threshold. The 42-year-old said on Thursday his party would re-strategise to gather the required support to win the next vote, which is expected to be held next week. Pita is the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party that won the most votes in Thailand’s general election on May 14. He was unopposed in Thursday’s contest, but could not muster the required support from Thailand’s 749-member bicameral legislature, with a host of abstentions and votes against him.

 

Pita’s eight-party alliance controls 312 seats in the lower house, but needed 375 votes to be able to form a government. When voting concluded, Pita had won 323 votes, including 13 from the 249-member conservative-leaning upper house, which was appointed by the military after a coup in 2014.” [1]

 

One of the major policies of Move Forward, the lèse majesté proposal, includes the reduction of power and influence of the monarchy and with it the decrease of the extreme superiority of King Maha Vajiralongkorn. The amendments on lèse majesté are the main reason why senators will not support a Limjaroenrat government. The Move Forward party has formed an eight-member coalition who hope to form a government, if Limjaroenrat is chosen as Prime Minister. Pheu Thai Party, the petty-bourgeois party founded by Thaksin Shinawatra (and with his daughter now in the leadership) has won every other election. It provides a strength attractive force for Move Forward as Pheu Thai is the party which has ruled in governments prior and before the 2014-coup, instigated by Prayut Chan-o-cha.

 

The 2016 constitution, framed by the Coup leaders and the military, ensures that the appointed Senate would be a check on any move towards enlightened bourgeois democracy. The next vote to choose the Prime Minister takes place on 19th July 2023. If Limjaroenrat fails again, it is likely that Pheu Thai would then have the chance to form a government and choose a prime minister from amongst their ranks.

 

The Danger of another Military Coup

 

During the COVID-19 counterrevolution the masses and the underprivileged, young people demonstrated in huge numbers against the regime, irrespective of the lockdown ordered by the regime. The army responded with the use of water cannons and other means. Most of the young demonstrators were campaigning against the lèse majesté, Section 112 of the Thai Criminal Code.

 

In 2018, some of the supporters for democratic rights have founded the Future Forward Party, but its leaders and the liberal party itself were banned. The RCIT has written about this in another place. The Move Forward party was formed already in 2014 but many of Limjaroenrat’s supporters have been jailed under the draconian law, which does not allow for any criticism of the monarchy or King Maha Vajiralongkorn.

 

“Pita Limjaroenrat’s progressive party may have won the most number of seats in Thailand’s general election, but it is far from certain that the 42-year-old businessman will succeed in becoming the Southeast Asian nation’s next prime minister.

 

The charismatic leader of the Move Forward Party, which stunned Thailand’s royalist military elite with its May 14 election victory, was the sole candidate put forward in Thursday’s parliamentary vote for prime minister. While Pita’s eight-party alliance controls 312 seats in the newly elected 500-member lower house, he needs at least 376 votes to become prime minister.

 

That is because a 250-member Senate appointed by the military following a coup in 2014 also gets to take part in the vote. Many senators have already indicated they will not vote for Pita because of his party’s bold promises to reduce the powers of the royalist military that has long dominated Thai politics. These include revisions to a law that punishes insults to the monarchy, ending military conscription and monopolies in the liquor industry

 

Even if Pita manages to scrape through in Thursday’s vote, he also faces disqualification from parliament as the Thai election commission claims he violated electoral laws by owning shares in a media company.” [2]

 

Thailand can be compared to countries like Brazil and Türkiye. Although a semi-colonial country, it can be classed as a regional power similar to countries that have a traditionally strong economy. Although it is influenced and dominated by imperialism, it has nevertheless some room for manoeuvres in its own interest. However, since the Covid-counterrevolution Thailand’s economy has plummeted and in the continuing inter-imperialist rivalry, Thailand has turned to the Eastern imperialist power China for aid and support. This of course has provoked opposition from Western imperialism, primarily the United States. Southeast and East Asia is now becoming a hotbed of rivalry and inter-imperialist conflicts between Myanmar, South Korea, Vietnam and North Korea. If the stalemate continues, the Royal Thai Army will move the country towards full dictatorship and again rule as a Bonapartist clique similar or worse than in the past under Prayuth Chan-ocha.

 

“Thailand’s new parliament has convened nearly two months after a progressive opposition party won a stunning election victory, but there is still no clear sign its leader will be able to become prime minister and end nine years of military-dominated rule.

 

The Move Forward Party’s unexpected election victory in May alarmed the ruling establishment, which regards it as a threat to the status quo and the monarchy. Some senators have already announced their opposition to party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, a 42-year-old Harvard-educated businessman.” [3]

 

Political Naivety and Underestimation of the Military

 

As the RCIT has argued in past statements, the populist Move Forward party assumed that if they just won an election they could take power, form a government, and proceed to make reforms that they had campaigned for. The hoped to build a more democratic system of government, to reduce the power of King Maha Vajiralongkorn, to amend the constitution and to prevent the Senate from deciding on future governments. This is very unlikely to happen in this period of political uncertainty. The state and its army will prevent this at all costs.

 

“During the Covid-Counterrevolution, the regime arrested thousands of Move Forward supporters and members who were involved in demonstrations and uprisings. The RCIT defended democratic rights as all revolutionaries should have, calling for the immediate release of the activists. Some of the MP’s elected to the legislature for Move Forward face criminal charges because of their actions. They are hoping that they can achieve change through peaceful democratic process. Of course, this is an illusion. The predecessor of the Move Forward Party was suspended and banned by the regime and its leader arrested. The Pheu Thai Party is a populist, bourgeois party founded in 1998 by Thaksin Shinawatra, a wealthy billionaire. He led several governments in 2006, but coups followed instituted by the military regime. Prayut Chan-o-cha, an Army General, took power after overthrowing his sister Yingluck Shinawtra in 2014. Pheu Thai had successfully won a general election in 2014, but the wing of the Bonapartist bourgeoisie hates even a shred of help for the poor masses and urban poor and initiated a coup.” [4]

 

Pita Limjaroenrat suspended from Parliament

 

The leader of the Move Forward party, Pita Limjaroenrat (hoping to be the next Prime Minister) has been suspended from parliament. The Constitutional Court ruled that as a member of a media company, he is prevented from standing for parliament. This is music to the ears of the military and the former Bonapartist rulers. The second vote for Prime Minister takes place today, 19th July, between the two Houses of Parliament (the House of Representatives and the Senate). It is thought by commentators as unlikely that Limjaroenrat will win the 2nd round of voting, as he needs 375 votes and he only received 323 on the 13th July. As he is suspended, he must wait outside the parliament.

 

“Thailand’s Constitutional Court has ordered a temporary suspension of prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat from parliament after accepting a case against him alleging he was unqualified to run in the country’s May 14 election.

 

The decision on Wednesday came after the court accepted a case that alleges Pita, leader of the election-winning Move Forward Party, was unqualified to run in a May 14 election because he held shares in a media company, in violation of electoral rules. Members of parliament are banned under Thai law from owning stock in media companies. Pita’s Move Forward Party said the suspension ruling by the court should not affect his nomination for Wednesday’s vote, which rival politicians had been seeking to block him from.

 

According to Thai law, Pita is still eligible to stand as a candidate for prime minister, but he must leave the lower house and be unable to vote”. [5]

 

The parliament blocked his candidature, and it will be up to other members of the coalition which won the election to choose another candidate for Prime Minister. Most likely it will be someone from the leadership of the Pheu Thai Party. This proves beyond doubt the reactionary and Bonapartist nature of the present regime. Bourgeois democracy has been expunged and there is even the possibility that another coup could take place.

 

“Thailand’s parliament blocked the prime ministerial nomination of the winner of May’s nationwide elections, Pita Limjaroenrat, on Wednesday, a blow to his progressive opposition party after nearly a decade of military-backed rule.

 

Out of the 715 members of parliament present, 395 voted to block the second nomination, 312 voted for it, eight abstained and one – Pita himself – didn’t cast the vote, according to the house speaker.

 

He was temporary suspended as a lawmaker by the country’s constitutional court after a complaint filed by the Election Commission against the Move Forward Party leader accusing him of violating election laws for allegedly holding shares in a media company.” [6]

 

Organize the revolutionary struggle now!

 

The bourgeoisie and the Bonapartist clique that rule Thailand have shown that they will not accept any challenge to their regime. By blocking the election of Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the populist Move Forward party who convincingly won the Thai general election on the 14th May 2023, this Bonapartist clique has among other things shown that dictatorship might be the order of the day soon enough. Demonstrations and protests by democratic activists have not altered the balance of power in Thailand. Peaceful change cannot be achieved.

 

As in other Bonapartist states like Egypt, Myanmar and Cambodia, what is required is revolutionary struggle of the workers and oppressed. It needs to start with mass protests up to an indefinite general strike to turn into a revolutionary struggle for power. Armed defence guards will be needed to defend workers and poor peasants, a path that is especially open for the masses in Thailand as they gained experience with the activities of the so-called Red Shirts during the coup in 2014.

 

Now is the time to strike back and fight to establish a socialist society via the revolutionary struggle for power.

 

The RCIT puts forward the following transitional demands in a revolutionary struggle for a Workers’ and Poor Peasants’ government.

 

* For Strikes up to an Indefinite General Strike organised through Action Committees and Councils of Action elected and run by workers, groups of activists and representatives of the urban poor and poor peasantry to fight for democratic rights and the abolishment of all Bonapartist and monarchical rule.

 

* For a sovereign, Revolutionary Constituent Assembly under the control of the organized popular masses! In such a Revolutionary Constituent Assembly, working-class activists should put forward socialist proposals and argue in favor of a Workers and Poor-Peasant Government based on Councils of the Workers, the Rural and Urban Poor!

 

* For Armed Defence Guards of the workers and the oppressed masses to protect themselves from provocations and attacks from the police, the military and right-wing forces!

 

* End the imperialist exploitation! Expropriate the multi-national corporations and put them under workers’ control! Abolish all debts without compensation! Summarize all banks into one State Bank under control of the workers!

 

* Only an armed insurrection led by the working class and poor peasantry can end the military dictatorship and imperialist exploitation with a minimum number of lost lives! Only a revolutionary workers and poor peasant government can open the road towards a future of freedom, equality and peace, a future of socialism!

 

* To fulfil all of these goals, the vanguard of workers and poor peasants in Thailand needs to build a revolutionary workers party. No bourgeois party, not even the most populist ones, could really lead the struggle for true democracy! In every struggle, revolutionaries defend democratic rights and activists fighting for those rights without an ounce of support for bourgeois politics, politicians and parties!

 

We call on all workers and poor to study the manifesto of the RCIT and to join the RCIT! Let us build together a new World Party of the socialist Revolution, the 5th International!

 

 

 

Footnotes

 

[1] Thailand’s Pita says won’t give up PM bid despite parliament loss | Politics News | Al Jazeera

 

[2] Who is Thai prime ministerial hopeful Pita Limjaroenrat? | Politics News | Al Jazeera

 

[3] Thai opposition party struggles to take power after election win | Politics News | Al Jazeera

 

[4] Thailand: The Move Forward Party wins the General Election with the Pheu Thai Party a close second - RCIT - Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (thecommunists.net)

 

[5] Thai court suspends Pita as MP as parliament votes on new premier | News | Al Jazeera

 

[6] Thailand elections: Parliament blocks Pita Limjaroenrat's bid to become prime minister | CNN